YoungLivermore

YoungLivermore Updated 

The drop to 47k really cleaned the market. Derivatives have been reset and still look relatively healthy. We are above the key resistance of 55k and 20 & 50 MA's, and though the funding has turned positive once again, it's not back at extreme levels. On-chain data still looking bullish, strong spot bids and exchange outflows. Seems like we will see continuation.

YoungLivermore Updated 

50k and 60k are the key levels. Everything else is noise at this point. Four scenarios: 1. Acceptance above 60k.Bull trap above 60k. 2. Bull trap above 60k. 3. Bear trap below 50k 4. Acceptance below 50k.

YoungLivermore Updated 

Though it seems likely (~70%) the drop to 50k was a trap, I don't like one bit the pattern price has formed in the last two months. We are only able to break into marginally higher highs that are followed by significant sell-offs.

YoungLivermore Updated 

Bitcoin has entered price discovery, new ATH being just under 64k. With the biggest schelling point ever, 100k per Bitcoin, being only +50% away, the risk to reward at these heights has become a question mark to me. Bitcoin was so grossly underpriced for years, that it's strange to finally realise it could be getting close to it's current "fair price". Just to...

YoungLivermore Updated 

First signs of bottoming process and accumulation on Gold. Gold's down almost 20% since August. No one is interested, everyone is busy being euphoric on stock market and crypto. Could be smart to start building a long-term trade position here. "Buy when no one is talking about x, sell when everyone is."

YoungLivermore Updated 

2021 so far: Things are going roughly as expected. Exposure still same as in February, currently ~95%. Very little if anything has changed, still expecting >100k Bitcoin by the end of this year. Nothing special happening on the chart, large timeframes are printing higher highs and higher lows, I'll play the trend as long as it's my friend. Also bullish on chain...

YoungLivermore

So, Tesla bought in. Bitcoin is in price discovery and the whole world is watching. I don't feel like doing too much TA is useful at this point of the market cycle, at least for me. We'll probably see some sharp corrections to flush out over-leveraged traders, but I won't be trying to time the market anymore. My conviction is that mid to long term we are going...

YoungLivermore Updated 

Market structure and price action is simply bearish. Circled wick was the Elon pump. On-chain is extremely bullish. Dilemma. Longs above 35k daily close or at 0.5 & 0.618 fibs.

YoungLivermore

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YoungLivermore

Losing the 200 day MA for more than a day or two has never happened during a Bitcoin bull market. Same with the 20W MA (currently at $9850). We are in uncharted territory.

YoungLivermore

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YoungLivermore

Long until daily closes below $10 000. 31 days until BAKKT.

YoungLivermore

Don't take it too seriously, it's just a quick market cycle psychology draft for shit 'n giggles. But I do think there's a decent chance of Tesla getting rekt this year. Here's some real fundamental analysis behind the Tesla case you should read: www.perseid-capital.com

YoungLivermore

Inverted chart to reduce biases. So, let's flip the current chart and assume Bitcoin would in this type of downtrend. Would you short this set-up? 1) RSI level 30, with bullish divergence. (inverted) 2) Sell volume getting noticably weaker every drop. When these two happen on a high timeframe, it's generally a strong reversal sign. Though this latest rally...

YoungLivermore

XRP/USD 1) Clear accumulation. 2) First HTF higher high. 3) Weekly resistance turned into support. 4) Highest volume since 2018 mania. 5) Daily golden cross.

YoungLivermore

Not saying this is the most likely scenario, just sketching out different possibilities. Think about it: Everyone, including bears who missed this rally, are looking to finally buy back in around $6000. It would be fucking hilarious if everyone finally gets in, just to see Bitcoin dump back down to $3000-$4000.

YoungLivermore

I think this parabola is about to run out of fuel. 1) Current levels don't offer the whales enough liquidity to fill big sell orders, so we are likely taking out at least the $8400-8500 levels. Retail is more than happy to fomo-buy that breakout. 2) Ascending wedge, declining volume. Unless the volume picks up big time, it's looking bearish. 3) Bitmex funding...

YoungLivermore

All things considered, 1) I think one more leg up is the most likely scenario. 2) Target? No idea, we'll keep going as long as retail fomo will act as fuel. Maybe just $8.5-8.8k stop hunt, maybe fomo party 'til $10-11.5k. 3) After this, I'm expecting a massive pull-back. $5-6k should hold.