Don't take it too seriously, it's just a quick market cycle psychology draft for shit 'n giggles. But I do think there's a decent chance of Tesla getting rekt this year.
Here's some real fundamental analysis behind the Tesla case you should read: www.perseid-capital.com
Inverted chart to reduce biases.
So, let's flip the current chart and assume Bitcoin would in this type of downtrend.
Would you short this set-up?
1) RSI level 30, with bullish divergence. (inverted)
2) Sell volume getting noticably weaker every drop.
When these two happen on a high timeframe, it's generally a strong reversal sign. Though this latest rally...
Not saying this is the most likely scenario, just sketching out different possibilities. Think about it: Everyone, including bears who missed this rally, are looking to finally buy back in around $6000. It would be fucking hilarious if everyone finally gets in, just to see Bitcoin dump back down to $3000-$4000.
I think this parabola is about to run out of fuel.
1) Current levels don't offer the whales enough liquidity to fill big sell orders, so we are likely taking out at least the $8400-8500 levels. Retail is more than happy to fomo-buy that breakout.
2) Ascending wedge, declining volume. Unless the volume picks up big time, it's looking bearish.
3) Bitmex funding...
All things considered,
1) I think one more leg up is the most likely scenario.
2) Target? No idea, we'll keep going as long as retail fomo will act as fuel. Maybe just $8.5-8.8k stop hunt, maybe fomo party 'til $10-11.5k.
3) After this, I'm expecting a massive pull-back. $5-6k should hold.
Check the "BITCOIN ABOUT TO ROLL OVER" -post I did yesterday, it doesn't get much more accurate than that. $6400 target hit only 8 hours later.
This bounce from $6400 is massive dollarwise, but I'm concerned about the lack of buy volume when you zoom in to smaller timeframes. I expect us to run stops at $7500 - $7600 range, and dump down to $5500 area. If we...
2015 chart for reference.
Things will probably play out just as they did in 2015. Blow off top to $7000-$8000 and a massive correction. If we hold the $6000 support, we are in a confirmed bull market.
My previous thesis about too many retail investors being short and Bitcoin inevitably pushing above $6500 was correct. Check the chart below: "BITCOIN LONG &...
Rough estimate of what I see happening in the next 12 months:
- 1st test of the $6000 area rejected
- the last bear trap to $3000-$4000 region
- 2nd test of $6000 successful
- price trading between $8000-$10 000 in May 2020 (the next halving).
Truly hard to see this playing out any other way.
If I had to give the second most likely scenario, it would be that the high is in ($5840), and the sell-off starts in the next couple of days. Daily bearish divergence forming on Bitcoin has been no joke during this bear market.
But, what I don't see happening is Bitcoin hitting $6000...