Well, I almost played this move right, I did take some short profits at the .5 FIB (which did keep my week well in the black), but with the the huge head-fake below, (marked with the blue sad face, of course.) I got over-eager, and re-upped some shot positions well before there was a real technical reason to do so, other than "But... it's supposed to go down now,...
I don't usually detail my moves, and these posts almost never constitute a 'place to move' as much as they are a summary of past moves and some flailing guesses at the future.
I did add a bit short at 2835 to see if the Fib holds up here. I'd add more again at 2856.
Well, the 'bounce' only lasted one hourly bar, which was always a possibility with VOL rising.
I guess it's kinda hard to enforce "DFTF, BTFD" when a over a quarter of the American workforce is unemployed or furloughed.
Next meaningful support is maybe at ~2740, planning to take *some* profits there.
Down to 2800 we did indeed go! Taking those short profits, and laughing maniacally.
With RSI broken down, and the bollinger band so squarely disrespected at the moment, I expect to see some kind of bounce and consolidation to see if the bears can manage to punch down towards 2750.
Though it could even happen at the close, if the bears really have cleared the...
It's been a while, sorry, but the SPX has been SO BORING.
We broke trend down on the hourly, making a lower high in price, and on the RSI. The head and shoulders theory is setting up nicely... but how long until the SPX ACTUALLY rolls over? With short interest as high as it is, and the fed using industrial-grade heat-pump air-handlers to blow hot air into this...
The bears keep getting caught hibernating, while the bulls performed another leap of off-hours magic, right to the base of the gap, filling it perfectly so far today.
They keep forgetting to close the door behind them though, and they've left another gap in waiting for the bears to come out and grab. Price continues to draw a wonderful trend-breaking head and...
You know, when the Bulls get to work on a weekend, they gap whatever resistance they couldn't break through all week! Not the bears, I guess - We open with a weak slide down, pretty much kicking the can down the road of uncertainty (at least for me). We still have some breathing room to consolidate before we run into the trend resistance for the last leg down,...
SPX was set up to make a move, and make a move it did - filling the lower gap first, and breaking it's second upward channel. I'm looking towards 2792 to take some profits, and keeping a close eye from there. A solid bouncing lower high there could set up to fill the gap remaining above. However, a trip back down to, and subsequent bounce from the ~2720 level...
Not that much interesting happening yet today on the SPX hourly, but it does appear that whoever can guess which gap fills first, 3000 or 2850, will be in for a profitable trade. the Daily bar (not pictured) failed to hold over .618 Fib from the recent bottom, but with trend still pointed up and to the right in the last could of weeks, It's getting harder and more...
Broke the price trend resistance, RSI resistance, and the upper Bollinger band, through the power of gaping on the weekend! It's pretty much the action I expected, given the last couple of weeks.
2880 becomes a critical level now, with 2940 target after, but I seriously doubt we touch it before filling in this gap we just created. I'm not buying a 'new bull...
SPX Hourly was (barely) unable to retake the trend resistance, instead re-testing the .5 FIB line from this year's low. It's bounced off that today, but a handful of resistance points remain ahead for any Bull hoping for more:
Last lower-high now sets a new bearish trend resistance, the upper bollinger band continues to collapse towards price action, and the...
SPX fails to break past it's RSI resistance, resulting in a phase change before it could re-test trend resistance. It promptly broke .5 FIB from the bottom and it's trend support (now resistance) but caught itself on what is now a very critical level.
2730-2750 is going to be a highly contested range by bulls, as it contains both the 2018 lows and the .2 FIB...
the SPX continues to trade within the top-half of it's trading range. The cleanest look would be to tap 2930ish where the trend resistance meets FIB 0.618 since the bottom... but falling RSI tops, and the gaps down every time the SPX tries to touch it's upper Bollinger band seem to be indicating a rally quickly losing steam.
The real question is, once it taps...
We've broken the bear market trend line resistance the only way that makes sense in this wild market, a weekend gap up right past a previous gap. Because of course we did.
So, ~2700 is a good temporary resistance to keep an eye on.. a former support, plus right in line with an important '09 FIB level right in there.
After that, I think we have some juicy juicy...
I'm positioned for Break. The gravity of the continually more uncertain timeline on SARS-COV-II and recovery thereof, coupled with a dwindling momentum and the longer standing trend resistance that just validated all point down for me.
We will see!
Continuing to look at the SPX long term chart. Everyone worked together to save the close on the monthly bar above the trend support line, but April fools had different ideas, I guess. An open below it pretty well validates it's conversion to resistance over the long term.
I'm short, targeting 2350. '09 Fib .382 level, plus the '18 lows.
I previously showed the whole trend on a Monthly,
But here we can see a 15m respecting the trend as support (Green Arrow), breaking through, then re-testing, and respecting it as resistance. (Red Arrow)
Now, there is plenty of other TA out there (Fib levels, NYSE bouncing on support, etc etc.) that could defy this, but I tend to think with the stimulus all but...
Not that anyone is surprised, but people trying to set bounce targets should consider breaking these long term trend lines may create resistance long term as well.
Goldman can pray to whatever fiat-based God they believe in for the SPX to regain 3200 by year end all they want, I don't see it.
