againstthegrain

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About me Commodity Position Trader
Joined
Your first loss is your best loss.
Markets Allocation
89 % commodities 11 % indices
Top Mentioned Symbols
SBH 22% | 2 ZCH 22% | 2 SBK 11% | 1 CTH 11% | 1
againstthegrain againstthegrain KCN2015, D, Long ,
KCN2015: KC N5 – Coffee, short-term retracement
16 3 0
KCN2015, D Long
KC N5 – Coffee, short-term retracement

For a better risk/reward, I would wait for confirmation above 149. Alternatively, longs at this point with tight stops would do the job as well.

againstthegrain againstthegrain SBK2015, D,
SBK2015: SB#11 - Get ready to “dive the five”
65 2 1
SBK2015, D
SB#11 - Get ready to “dive the five”

I still do not like longs on most of ags, unless you aim short term and get orthodox with your stops. Since my previous post about one month ago (see link below), SB11 is keeping its pace moving downstairs. At this point in time I see no signs of reversal, instead, my reading says we are about to “dive the five”. What comes after that remains to be seen. It is ...

againstthegrain againstthegrain SBH2015, D,
SBH2015: Be careful when/if shorting SB#11
31 1 0
SBH2015, D
Be careful when/if shorting SB#11

I would not go short on SB#11 unless we break the 14-level. It is true the possible ABC sequence can turn into a 12345 downtrend, but at this point in time both scenarios are possible. I would stay neutral for the time being, but if you really want to trade short-term, I would recommend evaluating a possible buy at levels above 14.90 with (keeping tight stops ...

againstthegrain againstthegrain ZCH2015, D, Long ,
ZCH2015: ZC “popcorn” updated.
23 0 0
ZCH2015, D Long
ZC “popcorn” updated.

finally, dxy and oil decided to give some room for ag commodities. my expectation for a c wave may be under way. for those trading short term, a buy at today’s high could yield some profits on the way up. if you like gaps, one more reason to start drawing your strategy. for now, I am keeping my long.

againstthegrain againstthegrain CTH2015, W, Short ,
CTH2015: CT#11 still bearish long term - possible reversal ahead
46 1 3
CTH2015, W Short
CT#11 still bearish long term - possible reversal ahead

Here is my contribution to the nice ichimoku analysis done by Kumowizard and posted at https://www.tradingview.com/v/POQOl7wn/#tc135818 The wave count on the weekly chart reinforces the idea that bears will keep control on the mid/long-term. At this point in time it is pretty safe to assume that intermediate-3 is consolidated retracing the full 2.618 ratio and ...

againstthegrain againstthegrain SBH2015, D,
SBH2015: SB #11 possible A-B-C correction
57 2 1
SBH2015, D
SB #11 possible A-B-C correction

The awesome oscillator shows the downward trend is over by divergence between the 3 and 5. The next move appears to be the a-b-c correction that would form a wave A. Fibo ratios are in place suggesting the next possible targets. Weekly chart turning bullish with MACD divergence. I know the big drop today is somehow scaring (good volume tho), so to be on the ...

againstthegrain againstthegrain ZSH2015, D, Long ,
ZSH2015: ZS upward "C" wave to come (???)
52 2 2
ZSH2015, D Long
ZS upward "C" wave to come (???)

Soybean has been a tough market for those traders seeking volatility as it has been on a “wait-and-see” mode for a couple of month now. I do not expect any major movement on the short/mid run; however, I do see a possibility to “widen” the current trading range. The wave counting above suggests that a B wave would be completed (or nearly completed) and a possible ...

againstthegrain againstthegrain ZCH2015, D, Long ,
ZCH2015: We may see a “Pop” in Corn (???)
46 1 0
ZCH2015, D Long
We may see a “Pop” in Corn (???)

(Forgive the terrible joke, but I couldn’t hold myself). The 50% retracement on Corn suggests that a minor correction would be over making possible an “a-b-c” counting thus getting ready to resume the upward trend. However, at this point in time, it would be wise to keep an alternate count in sight as this correction could easily (and most likely, in my opinion) ...

againstthegrain againstthegrain DXY, D,
DXY: DXY Wave Couting "by the book"
49 1 1
DXY, D
DXY Wave Couting "by the book"

Here is my two cents on a possible reversal level for DXY. I am carrying my wave-counting going “by the book” (i.e. following the original/classic Elliott Wave Principle). 1) wave 2 retraces 0.618 times wave 1 2) there is a 3rd wave extension 3) wave 3 extension ends at 4.236 fibo 4) wave 4 retraces 0.236 times wave 3 5) wave 5, when 3 is extended, is targeted at ...

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USOIL
Crude Oil (WTI)
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US DOLLAR / BRAZILIAN REAL
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TEUCRIUM SOYBEAN FUND ETV
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KCH2015
Coffee
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ZSH2015
SOYBEAN FUTURES - ECBT
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CTH2015
Cotton #2
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DXY
U.S. Dollar Index
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ZS1!
SOYBEAN FUTURES - ECBT
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CORN FUTURES - ECBT
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LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
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BRAZILIAN REAL / US DOLLAR
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TEUCRIUM CORN FUND ETV
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Sugar #11
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CORN FUTURES - ECBT
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