vix is the volatility of spy
while the vvix is the volatility of vix
Historically they followed each other but not now.
I am yet to find an explanation for this phenomenon.
Is vvix being suppressed?
Please leave your comments and share your insights.
for downtrend to continue spy has to go to a new lower low(is anybody in doubt we are in downtrend ?)
391 looks like possible technical point of support
fundamentally nothing changed. (it is not good )see market conditions index
stocks do not travel in a straight line so will try to catch a rebound at 390
38 could be vix target based on chart
pattern based: spy pt 410-420. vix 35-37.
fundamental based: we started downtrend early Jan.(series of lower lows and lower highs)
did anything change to improve the fundamentals ?
war in Ukraine. covid in china. inflation 8.5%. fed ended QE.
What can break our downtrend at this point?
spy looks overbought, vix looks oversold. (vix ratio could drop lower)
market reacted to Russia Ukraine peace talks
rally that is based on news usually do not last long
stocks started falling even before Russia- Ukraine situation was an issue
perfect resistance line shown on the chart.
bond market and worsening economic conditions signaled trend change
we started downtrend on daily early Jan/22- series of lowers lows and lower highs
we also below ichi cloud that confirms downtrend
for downtrend to continue we need to sell off before 457
we had a rally after every fed meeting this time was not exception. Besides we formed a falling wedge on...