We had some weeks of sideways movements and now we are getting to the corner of the mid-term upwards trend where we have more upwards movements and lots of downwards rejections. This indicates a continuation of the mid-term upwards trend.
I tried to figure out a very simple and easy way to describe the chart with basic tools.
As i learned in my years of experience simplicity is the way to warn success.
And here we go. We can see that we have a good recover from the last upwards shoot and trying to stay in the steady upwards area.
The last AB drop could repeat as a CD leg towards last structure lows at 1.204-1.207.
We could see a turn around there because of multiple divergences on the RSI and other indicators.
But for now short is the better side on the market.
We saw a nice correction towards 50 MA on the daily chart and it got perfectly rejected at the structure at 1240.
Now 3 days we have lower highs and this indicates lower strenght for the bulls. We can expect a retest of previous structure lows at 1183.
We are still in a downtrend.
In consideration of the current trend and fundamental situations we can see that the market slows down in its falling and tries to find some momentum on the downside. We have to wait for the next COT report to see how the big traders play.
A turnaround for a correction could be very near.
My previous interpretation of this value was that I looked if the potential went lower or higher than previous week for defining a trend.
But after watching a bit back in the past it shows more accuracy if the trend is defined by the point 1.
If the potential wents from over 1 to under 1 it becomes an uptrend.
If the potential wents from under 1 to over 1 it...
We had a lower shorting potential this week but the market did not go up. The COT shorting potential is a very qualitative value for predicting the market direction of the upcoming week. It depends on the relation to the last value.
The so called shorting potential is again the second time lower and the commercials are stocking up their long positions....
I made a calculation system which shows the shorting potential of a trading symbol through the COT report which gets released every friday afternoon. The movement for the next week can be calculated fundamentally for getting a value which just tells you the movement if you know the previous value and in this case the value for the next week is lower than the last...
The description in the graph says it all. We are at a significant level, a broken support, but we got a pullback which pretty much supports the Idea for a reversal and a sequel towards older highs at 1345 and 1380.
If market manages to come lower than 1260 it might be a signal for more downside pressure towards older lows like 1240 and maybe 1180 at the end.
**THE TREND CHANNEL IS NOT SHOWN PROPERLY**
As you can see in the structure in the graph there is still bullish conditions showing and it may break the structure level for more upwards pressure.
Confirm after 0.851
We have a quiet situation again where the further movements are dependent to the upcoming data about the US economy.
If the economy has positive results the price will fall and if not then it may break upwards.
*TAKE PROFIT 2 HIT*
Potential Profit = 32 Pips
The NZD stays steady and USD is not showing its potential from the last weeks anymore.
Enter a buy IF market hits 0.8440
Stop Loss: 0.8400
Take Profit 1: 0.8455
Take Profit 2: 0.84725