alx13

alx13

Dollar seems to be putting in a bottom in earnest. Normally one more pullback head-fake should happen to shake out all weak hands and draw in the last of the $ bears. But if it breaks the green TL in earnest, that will be even more bullish as no last pullback will happen and this will explode higher, like it did last time. Green TL is key here. One last...

alx13

DAX is caught in a tight range since the "vaccine spike" back on 9th of November. It looks like the classic ED (ending diagonal) pattern, so ideally it should have one last push higher before rolling over. The ED is my preferred scenario at the moment. This could also be just a complex correction with a b-wave high (in which case the lower trend line could break...

alx13

I underestimated the possibility of the market needing 3 rather large waves to complete the 5. It appears now we are getting closer, but still has a bit more upside to go. Could also spike above before turning, but in any case this is a terminal pattern. I would NOT chase prices higher here, but wait to short once it confirms.

alx13

The June decline appeared to be impulsive, given the 3 consecutive lower lows. But because the beginning of that decline was taken out, that leaves a flat on the table (3-3-5 structure). I suspected that from the beginning because the last wave was not a clean impulse, which meant it is likely a b-wave low. This looks to be an ED (ending diagonal), or the entire...

alx13

SPX rallied strongly in what looked like a giant short squeeze and broke the green line (see previous idea). Also spiked above the melt-up channel. So that only leaves 1 bear option and one bull. After the spike above the melt-up channel, it reversed strongly and now broke below it. Which is a bearish reversal, in my view. Lows at red "or 3/C" should be taken out...

alx13

The picture is still bearish following the Brexit crash, but lots of options on the table as of now. We have 3 waves into the lows, so the bullish option is that a simple a-b-c correction finished at the lows and now we should go up (I see this as the underdog as of now). 2 bearish options open now: - most bearish is a bear nest - a series of 1-2 waves which 3...

alx13

SPX overthrew the top TL before reversing and also back-tested that TL before heading lower again (highlighted on the chart). Right now, SPX is testing the lower TL and it is critical to watch the reaction here. Normally, after an overthrow and back-test one would be tempted to go all out bearish, but this market has proved with the current rally off the lows...

alx13

It looks like the market chose the most confusing structure to confuse everyone looking for a turn and convince them that it will never come. Right now it looks like a possible ending diagonal, so there might be a bit more to go (although the 5 can undershoot or overshoot), but basically the 5 can end any time from now up until the upper pink TL. The green line...

alx13

Well, the SPX headed lower and broke the 1 but also the (presumed) wave 2 level. Meaning that the red count was invalidated and we are working only with the pink one. The current set-up is getting unclear again though since the market had a 3 wave decline and then bounced strongly. For the downside to be clear we would have needed an impulsive decline... So,...

alx13

Zooming in to the hourly chart, the (presumed) C wave looks to be in the final stages. The previously pointed impulsive decline was entirely retraced so it is very likely that it was part of (yet another) flat correction, which was likely a 4th wave. So now we appear to be in the last 5th wave of the mentioned C wave. The big question now is if the 5th is already...

alx13

Bigger picture, the SPX looks like a flat off the lows, because the move to new lows (from red A to red B on the chart) looks to be only 3 waves because of the overlap. Therefore this huge rally off the lows is destined to be FULLY retraced, since it is likely a C wave, part of a correction. The big question is when will that correction start, of course and for...

alx13

A huge rally followed the impulsive decline I was mentioning. Considering that the market already retraced 90% of the previous move, we have to assume that the impulsive decline was part of a correction and not the start of a bigger down move - count shown in red - a flat with a B wave into the highs and an impulsive decline for a C wave. Above the previous high...

alx13

First impulsive decline in a while. After an a-b-c up, I expect another 5 wave down move. Interesting is that the mcm long-term cycles started to turn as well: mcm-ct.com

alx13

It's been a while since I updated the long term count. My intermediate bearish view was confirmed in the mean time with DAX putting in a spike above the previously indicated magenta TL from the ATH, however quickly losing momentum and failing also to keep above the 200d MA. The decline from ATH was very choppy, with waves which were difficult to count, so there...

alx13

After the never ending rally finally peaked, dax had a vicious decline yesterday. Volatility was very high, almost 700 points intraday range. The big question now is - is a more tradeable intermediate top in or not? In my opinion, the answer is yes, but we will not have confirmation until the market breaks down into an impulsive decline (5 waves). The strenght of...

alx13

Dax almost reached the descending TL from the ATH and lower high and reversed quite strongly (more than 300 points). It seems my previous call was pretty accurate :) With enough waves in place for the impulsive move off the lows to be complete, long positions should be approached with caution, since even in the bullish scenario that this is a new wave 1/A going...

alx13

It seems my previous idea of a bear trap was dead-on. The pull-back was smaller than I expected and the market then rallied strongly. We are now approaching one last descending TL and an important overlap. I changed my count vs my previous daily counts to take into account both bear and bull options. There is no way to tell with certainty which one will play out,...

alx13

DAX looks to be in an extended 5th wave. After finishing it's vicious 3 of 5, it looks like it needs to retrace a bit more to put in a sharp 4, before heading higher to finish the 5 of 5. So I would expect down near term, but the recent construction looks like a flat, so I don't expect the final high for this leg is in. Funny enough, also spx and eurostoxx50 have...