alx13

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About me I am a CFA charterholder. I trade futures, mostly GER30 but sometimes also ES and YM. I mainly use Elliott Wave Theory for market analysis, but also different other technical analysis to figure out the short/medium and long term direction of the market
Joined Vienna
Markets Allocation
2 % forex 98 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
GER 79% | 39 SPX 20% | 10
alx13 alx13 SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: SPX - clarity emerges
144 0 1
SPX500, 60 Short
SPX - clarity emerges

SPX rallied strongly in what looked like a giant short squeeze and broke the green line (see previous idea). Also spiked above the melt-up channel. So that only leaves 1 bear option and one bull. After the spike above the melt-up channel, it reversed strongly and now broke below it. Which is a bearish reversal, in my view. Lows at red "or 3/C" should be taken out ...

alx13 alx13 SPX500, 60,
SPX500: SPX - decision point approaching
133 0 2
SPX500, 60
SPX - decision point approaching

The picture is still bearish following the Brexit crash, but lots of options on the table as of now. We have 3 waves into the lows, so the bullish option is that a simple a-b-c correction finished at the lows and now we should go up (I see this as the underdog as of now). 2 bearish options open now: - most bearish is a bear nest - a series of 1-2 waves which 3 ...

alx13 alx13 SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: SPX - intermediate top in or another high coming?
81 0 2
SPX500, 60 Short
SPX - intermediate top in or another high coming?

SPX overthrew the top TL before reversing and also back-tested that TL before heading lower again (highlighted on the chart). Right now, SPX is testing the lower TL and it is critical to watch the reaction here. Normally, after an overthrow and back-test one would be tempted to go all out bearish, but this market has proved with the current rally off the lows ...

alx13 alx13 SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: SPX - ending diagonal?
218 2 3
SPX500, 60 Short
SPX - ending diagonal?

It looks like the market chose the most confusing structure to confuse everyone looking for a turn and convince them that it will never come. Right now it looks like a possible ending diagonal, so there might be a bit more to go (although the 5 can undershoot or overshoot), but basically the 5 can end any time from now up until the upper pink TL. The green line ...

alx13 alx13 SPX500, 60,
SPX500: SPX - picture getting complicated again
102 0 2
SPX500, 60
SPX - picture getting complicated again

Well, the SPX headed lower and broke the 1 but also the (presumed) wave 2 level. Meaning that the red count was invalidated and we are working only with the pink one. The current set-up is getting unclear again though since the market had a 3 wave decline and then bounced strongly. For the downside to be clear we would have needed an impulsive decline... So, ...

alx13 alx13 SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: SPX - turn started or is there another high coming?
219 4 2
SPX500, 60 Short
SPX - turn started or is there another high coming?

Zooming in to the hourly chart, the (presumed) C wave looks to be in the final stages. The previously pointed impulsive decline was entirely retraced so it is very likely that it was part of (yet another) flat correction, which was likely a 4th wave. So now we appear to be in the last 5th wave of the mentioned C wave. The big question now is if the 5th is already ...

alx13 alx13 SPX500, 240, Short ,
SPX500: SPX - bigger picture
76 0 1
SPX500, 240 Short
SPX - bigger picture

Bigger picture, the SPX looks like a flat off the lows, because the move to new lows (from red A to red B on the chart) looks to be only 3 waves because of the overlap. Therefore this huge rally off the lows is destined to be FULLY retraced, since it is likely a C wave, part of a correction. The big question is when will that correction start, of course and for ...

alx13 alx13 SPX500, 60,
SPX500: SPX - market bounces back
76 0 1
SPX500, 60
SPX - market bounces back

A huge rally followed the impulsive decline I was mentioning. Considering that the market already retraced 90% of the previous move, we have to assume that the impulsive decline was part of a correction and not the start of a bigger down move - count shown in red - a flat with a B wave into the highs and an impulsive decline for a C wave. Above the previous high ...

alx13 alx13 SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: SPX - first impulsive decline
231 0 4
SPX500, 60 Short
SPX - first impulsive decline

First impulsive decline in a while. After an a-b-c up, I expect another 5 wave down move. Interesting is that the mcm long-term cycles started to turn as well: http://mcm-ct.com/blog/mcm-newsletter-outlook-for-week-22-26-feb/

alx13 alx13 GER30, D, Short ,
GER30: DAX - impulsive decline, picture looks increasingly bearish
315 0 3
GER30, D Short
DAX - impulsive decline, picture looks increasingly bearish

It's been a while since I updated the long term count. My intermediate bearish view was confirmed in the mean time with DAX putting in a spike above the previously indicated magenta TL from the ATH, however quickly losing momentum and failing also to keep above the 200d MA. The decline from ATH was very choppy, with waves which were difficult to count, so there ...

alx13 alx13 GER30, 60, Short ,
GER30: DAX - intermediate top in or just A-B-C correction?
420 0 2
GER30, 60 Short
DAX - intermediate top in or just A-B-C correction?

After the never ending rally finally peaked, dax had a vicious decline yesterday. Volatility was very high, almost 700 points intraday range. The big question now is - is a more tradeable intermediate top in or not? In my opinion, the answer is yes, but we will not have confirmation until the market breaks down into an impulsive decline (5 waves). The strenght of ...

alx13 alx13 GER30, D, Short ,
GER30: DAX - important top seems to be in
294 0 2
GER30, D Short
DAX - important top seems to be in

Dax almost reached the descending TL from the ATH and lower high and reversed quite strongly (more than 300 points). It seems my previous call was pretty accurate :) With enough waves in place for the impulsive move off the lows to be complete, long positions should be approached with caution, since even in the bullish scenario that this is a new wave 1/A going ...

alx13 alx13 GER30, D, Short ,
GER30: DAX - intermediate term top coming up?
73 0 0
GER30, D Short
DAX - intermediate term top coming up?

It seems my previous idea of a bear trap was dead-on. The pull-back was smaller than I expected and the market then rallied strongly. We are now approaching one last descending TL and an important overlap. I changed my count vs my previous daily counts to take into account both bear and bull options. There is no way to tell with certainty which one will play out, ...

alx13 alx13 GER30, 60, Short ,
GER30: DAX - down in the ST, but looks like a bear trap
228 0 2
GER30, 60 Short
DAX - down in the ST, but looks like a bear trap

DAX looks to be in an extended 5th wave. After finishing it's vicious 3 of 5, it looks like it needs to retrace a bit more to put in a sharp 4, before heading higher to finish the 5 of 5. So I would expect down near term, but the recent construction looks like a flat, so I don't expect the final high for this leg is in. Funny enough, also spx and eurostoxx50 have ...

alx13 alx13 SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: SPX - pull-back before final push
322 0 1
SPX500, 60 Short
SPX - pull-back before final push

It looks like spx is putting in a flat. I expect more downside to complete the c of that flat, before rallying into the final wave 5 of 5.

alx13 alx13 GER30, D, Short ,
GER30: DAX - head-fake or real break-out?
437 0 2
GER30, D Short
DAX - head-fake or real break-out?

Well, yesterday the market got close to the TL and then, thanks to the very dovish comments from Draghi, rocket launched right through the TL, never looking back. I have to admit I have started to look short way too early, but never jumped in since we never had an impulsive decline telling the story. So at least I was not rolled over. Now, DAX is coming to the ...

alx13 alx13 GER30, D, Short ,
GER30: DAX - TL coming up fast
72 0 3
GER30, D Short
DAX - TL coming up fast

Well, the HnS pattern proved to be a fake one. Dax never started to head lower and just ramped higher after that correction. Typical for a big wave 4, which finished right about where the 4 of an extended wave 3 finished. So that would put us in the final 5th wave. A look at the daily shows that we are getting close to the TL I pointed toward back when DAX was ...

alx13 alx13 GER30, 60, Short ,
GER30: DAX - possible head and shoulders pattern
96 0 2
GER30, 60 Short
DAX - possible head and shoulders pattern

In my previous idea I was suggesting that 2 scenarios are on the table - either we topped out the 3/C, or the correction was leading to another bounce. Those are still valid, despite the fact that we dropped and bounced. Possible HnS pattern is lining up on the hourly. I the rally tops in this general vicinity, I would keep an eye out for that. Necline is close ...

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GER30
DAX index of German listed shares
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