CL seems to have finished a 5 wave move up into weekly bearish order block. shorted at weekly OB but exited shorts early.
CL will most likely bounce from here or a little lower after running 49.17 stops, bounce back up to run stops at 51.2 or 51.7+ levels.
will enter shorts at red boxed area, with target for blue box (to run stops at 47-ish)
after we reach...
got a good trade shorting live cattle 1.43% through COW Puts, exited when green line "stops" got ran.
now waiting for possible retrace up to grey boxed area to sell some cow calls.
cow is etf split between LE and HE. chose COW as it has options and higher weighting towards LE .
may grab a small call spread if LE retraces down into 105-110 levels
looks like coffee has been getting buys in monthly OBs. weekly MACD had divergence.
decline from november to june looks like a corrective wave.
should be in early stages of impulsive wave now, looking for stop run of 125 levels into yellow box.
will sell $JO put spreads if KC1 gets there
GBPUSD has divergence with DXY, EURUSD and USDJPY.
while DXY made lower lows, EURUSD made higher highs and UJ made lower lows (coincides with dollar move)
GBPUSD failed to make higher highs (shows possible distribution by larger funds). also this failure occured at a potential bearish order block.
stop loss is at indicated (30 pips above recent prior high).
longed wheat at green line area (looked like weekly support)
looks like a nice dip into bullish orderblock + prior support right now (testing consolidation breakout support?)
would add more Wheat longs here
ideally wheat should not move down past the grey boxed area.
order block (purple area) held as support. sugar had strong rally off it and looks to be currently consolidating with a bull flag.
seasonal cycle also shows sugar bullish trend.
EMAs show bullish trend.
bearish market structure broke in July and currently showing bullish structure.
buy the dip?
seeing if grey area is a valid order block, green line should hold... had some good consolidations past few weeks.
targetting at least 3.12 area. break of that would also break bearish market structure on weekly and possibly indicate "bottom" is in
also have seasonal cycle support
looks like a 5-3-5 setting up. the recent downtrend was a pretty obvious 5 wave down (i think).
will wait for oil to finish consolidating and look for buys at 44-45.5 range (order block + fib level).
should also see macd or RSI divergence when we make a lower low
could possibly trade a wave down if we do complete a 3 wave up (AB = CD, divergence on lower...
Tracking purposes -- can' trade forex personally
DXY seems to have found support that is viable for a bounce to 96.5 area
JPYUSD on daily has dual divergences, type 2 (yellow lines) and type 1(orange) divergence. also turned around on a fib level and possible bearish order block
long ng. double divergence. type 2 on weekly and type 1 on daily. decent support location. would be very nice to see weekly close above 2.84. possible turtle soup patter on weekly.
down side -- still another 10% to stop location... opening really small position here
shorting NG if we get a bounce high enough to 3.02 to 3.06 levels and i see type 1 bearish divergence (possibly on 4 hr or 1 hr TF) possible type 2 bearish divergence on daily already in place with %R and MACD indicators.
Stop at 3.11. targets at 2.816 (R/R of 3) and 2.735 (R/R of 4)
Daily has hidden bear divergence
4 hr has already set up normal bear divergence (higher price lower momentum)
Price seems to stop around a possible support turned resistance point at 30s area. would like to see TWLO retrace back higher to 31 though.
if TWLO drops from here, will wait for a retrace on that drop to grab longer term puts
Hidden Bullish Divergence on Daily TF
Bunch of support levels lined up with fibs. Will be a good and safe buy to grab longs when smaller TF (4hr or 1hr) show a regular bullish divergence (lower price but higher momentum)
I would split my buys at 40.8 and 40.07, stop below 38
scenario 1: possibly a further drop, then a bounce and a accumulation/wave 2 going on before a breakout.
scenario 2: retrace up, further down, making new low before continuing rally
optimal safe entry is when NG goes sideways after making new lows