blackhorseshoe

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Markets Allocation
63 % forex 25 % commodities 13 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
USDJPY 62% | 5 CL1! 25% | 2 SPX 12% | 1
blackhorseshoe blackhorseshoe SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: Bearish reversal wedge + MACD triple divergence
266 0 5
SPX, D Short
Bearish reversal wedge + MACD triple divergence

S&P is trading higher as central bank addiction keeps working and bubbling. But I see a bearish reversal wedge developing and MACD and other momentum indicators are not confirming higher highs as they sport a lower highs pattern. Conscious here, also because I strongly believe the moves in rates in Europe two weeks ago were only the beginning...

blackhorseshoe blackhorseshoe USDJPY, 60,
USDJPY: Medium Term direction is still not clear
41 0 6
USDJPY, 60
Medium Term direction is still not clear

Underlying USD bullishness has never abandoned the market, and a few headlines and good risk mood had many undecided traders jump back on the train. Now, where are we headed? To durably go up, 115.6 must be cleared to confirm double bottom; a downturn from here might still shape up as a continuation H&S. Data is out in 1h, GDP and durable goods. Wait for it or ...

blackhorseshoe blackhorseshoe USDJPY, W,
USDJPY: USDJPY - What is the prevailing underlying trend?
94 1 7
USDJPY, W
USDJPY - What is the prevailing underlying trend?

Anyone spotting an uncanny resemblance between this set of waves and 1995/2000's? After a strong bullish cycle between 1995 and 1998 following the Kobe earthquake, UJ corrected in a ABC fashion. B wave was completed in preparation to the 1999 FED tightening cycle. Today? 2012-2015 1-2-3-4-5, A completed amidst poor market sentiment in 2016 and B (very quickly) in ...

blackhorseshoe blackhorseshoe CL1!, 15,
CL1!: WTI move already done?
80 0 5
CL1!, 15
WTI move already done?

OPEC deal is lots of brouhaha, but details do not justify a sustainable move to $60 for three reasons: 1) latest production level for OPEC countries came at 34.19 bpd, cutting 1.2mn bpd as agreed would simply bring production back to August levels, when the price was at or below $50; 2) commitment of non-OPEC countries is unclear at best, with latest headlines ...

blackhorseshoe blackhorseshoe USDJPY, D,
USDJPY: Bearish, but trendline must be broken
71 0 5
USDJPY, D
Bearish, but trendline must be broken

Still bearish on this pair, idea predicated on daily divergence across many oscillators (from CCI to Stoch), convergence of strong resistances around 114.8/115.5/116, and on long term view that USD multi-year rally has run its course. However, this morning's rebound off the trendline confirms the resilience of the latest move up. Violation is needed to target ...

blackhorseshoe blackhorseshoe USDJPY, D, Short ,
USDJPY: USDJPY - Divergence
91 1 1
USDJPY, D Short
USDJPY - Divergence

Stoch, Commodity Channel, Momentum and MACD indicators are all showing increasing divergence. I also see strong LT trendlines/resistance here. I am not entering a short position as of yet, but looking for a bullish signal reversed pattern tomorrow. If materialized, pullback might be deep.

blackhorseshoe blackhorseshoe CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Head and Shoulder on WTI
75 0 5
CL1!, D Short
Head and Shoulder on WTI

If no OPEC deal/deal not liked by markets, potential for move through the neckline of the head and shoulder I see forming. Target would be 35/36.

blackhorseshoe blackhorseshoe USDJPY, 15, Short ,
USDJPY: USDJPY - Move lower in sight
95 0 4
USDJPY, 15 Short
USDJPY - Move lower in sight

Looks like a bearish gartley pattern is building up, D point is around 113.3/113.4. Also, on the 1D chart I am focusing on an evening star + engulfing pattern started on Friday. 111.36 remains main support, if broken I would place TP1 @110.5 and play an even deeper correction into next week (109 and even 107.5 if OPEC and Italy wreak havoc).

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