Markets are rallying in spite of horrible economic momentum and progressive earnings downgrades. Based on what seems to be the range of 2020 top-down S&P500 EPS estimates by top Wall Street shops ($110/$130), forward PE is now at levels last seen in the dot-com era (21.5 to 25.5). FED can pull off miracles, and this is one of them. in the face of unprecedented...
S&P is trading higher as central bank addiction keeps working and bubbling. But I see a bearish reversal wedge developing and MACD and other momentum indicators are not confirming higher highs as they sport a lower highs pattern. Conscious here, also because I strongly believe the moves in rates in Europe two weeks ago were only the beginning...
Underlying USD bullishness has never abandoned the market, and a few headlines and good risk mood had many undecided traders jump back on the train.
Now, where are we headed? To durably go up, 115.6 must be cleared to confirm double bottom; a downturn from here might still shape up as a continuation H&S. Data is out in 1h, GDP and durable goods. Wait for it or...
Anyone spotting an uncanny resemblance between this set of waves and 1995/2000's? After a strong bullish cycle between 1995 and 1998 following the Kobe earthquake, UJ corrected in a ABC fashion. B wave was completed in preparation to the 1999 FED tightening cycle. Today? 2012-2015 1-2-3-4-5, A completed amidst poor market sentiment in 2016 and B (very quickly) in...
OPEC deal is lots of brouhaha, but details do not justify a sustainable move to $60 for three reasons: 1) latest production level for OPEC countries came at 34.19 bpd, cutting 1.2mn bpd as agreed would simply bring production back to August levels, when the price was at or below $50; 2) commitment of non-OPEC countries is unclear at best, with latest headlines...
Still bearish on this pair, idea predicated on daily divergence across many oscillators (from CCI to Stoch), convergence of strong resistances around 114.8/115.5/116, and on long term view that USD multi-year rally has run its course. However, this morning's rebound off the trendline confirms the resilience of the latest move up. Violation is needed to target...
Stoch, Commodity Channel, Momentum and MACD indicators are all showing increasing divergence. I also see strong LT trendlines/resistance here. I am not entering a short position as of yet, but looking for a bullish signal reversed pattern tomorrow. If materialized, pullback might be deep.
Looks like a bearish gartley pattern is building up, D point is around 113.3/113.4. Also, on the 1D chart I am focusing on an evening star + engulfing pattern started on Friday. 111.36 remains main support, if broken I would place TP1 @110.5 and play an even deeper correction into next week (109 and even 107.5 if OPEC and Italy wreak havoc).
