brentdonnelly_spectramarkets

brentdonnelly_spectramarkets

Going into the December BOJ meeting (where they changed YCC), USDJPY was trading 137.50. the 100-day is 136.75 and the 200-day is 137.25. The quintuple top before December BOJ was 137.80/138.20 (red line on chart). That’s a lot of levels all in one area. And if you were a believer in the idea that there would be repatriation flows from the big boys in Japan… This...

brentdonnelly_spectramarkets

The honey badger is notorious for its strength, ferocity, and toughness. It is known to savagely and fearlessly attack almost any other species when escape is impossible, reportedly even repelling much larger predators such as lions and hyenas. Bee stings, porcupine quills, and animal bites rarely penetrate their skin. If horses, cattle, or Cape buffaloes intrude...

brentdonnelly_spectramarkets

The EURUSD chart still looks rather bearish, with the only real bullish angle being that the huge gamma pocket and round number at 1.00 held right at the peak of EUR bearishness. Here is the daily chart, with the 60 and 120-day moving averages. A close above 1.04 would take out the 60-day moving average and would clear the pivot marked by the thin red line. The...

brentdonnelly_spectramarkets

Everyone expects the worst for payrolls. A strong number will probably hurt TY and NQ. Risk managing a short NQ position is simple now with so many failures in that 15000/15100 area... Stop loss 15310.

brentdonnelly_spectramarkets

Makes me think it's just year-end flows into stocks ... and global risk appetite is not particularly strong. Strong global risk appetite would be taking cross/JPY and crypto higher. It's not. Look for a quick correction in the SPX off overbought levels once the inflows subside after the first day or two of January (first two business days of January tend to be...

brentdonnelly_spectramarkets

The offers at 69,420 didn't quite get tickled, but the 69 print is on the books. Too many meme lovers (or Elon) on the offer. Cratering front end US rate futures not great for short-term crypto outlook. If the Fed stops out on its transitory view, USD debasement plays will get slammed.

brentdonnelly_spectramarkets

For the first time since the release of Space Invaders on Atari 2600, inflation control is a higher US policy priority than jobs or growth. The front end cratered today as Biden and Manchin made it clear that inflation is now US policy priority #1, CPI was hot as ever, and the bond auction tailed badly. Market reactions were somewhat consistent but the exception...

brentdonnelly_spectramarkets

Looks to me like short-term USD reversal coming, regardless of CPI. Gold, real rates, relative yields, rebound in BTPs, techs (EURUSD now above hourly cloud and 200hour)... Think we see 1.1750 in EURUSD. The "ECB is more dovish" narrative is kind of stale and priced in. 1 week 1.1650 EUR calls make sense to me. CPI tomorrow possible kicker. Trade your own view...

brentdonnelly_spectramarkets

I am genuinely curious to hear what you think. I have no view on Cardano but it's amazing that such a large and well-known part of the crypto world has been completely left behind on this bull run.

brentdonnelly_spectramarkets

If you are bullish crude, a good way to express it right now is via short USDNOK. Following the VAR shock in early November, hedge funds have been forced to reduce popular positions (including NOK, which was a favored reflation trade). I think the VAR shock pain is mostly done and USDNOK and EURNOK should revert back towards the lows. Both pairs look around 1% too...