bruceyam

bruceyam

The above chart is a monthly log of the SPX. Since 1932, there has been a trendline supporting the whole bull market. However, after the 2008 subprime crisis, the Fed introduced QE again. Why do we use QE again? In 1923, Benjamin Strong, head of the New York Fed, realized that gold was no longer the primary factor controlling credit in the economy. By making a...

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in the past few years, USDCNH usually found a turning point in the 1st Q, especially around the Chinese New Year. Today there is a big rally in USDCNH. Reuters report, FX conversion before the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which starts on Jan. 31, has been traditionally heavier as exporters need to settle their dollar receipts for goods payments and employee...

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Last week silver posted a remarkable high volume on 18 Jan. according to CME recorded a 108,632 contract on that day, equal to 543M ounces of silver, which is equivalent to 1/2 year of mine production in the world. With a large volume that day, silver is tough to go below 22. Silver is looking for challenge 50 in the coming months on the monthly chart. If silver...

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Tory MP David Davis urges Boris Johnson to resign www.youtube.com and Boris Johnson has repeatedly said the salary for PM is too low metro.co.uk A vote of confidence within the Conservative Party must be initiated by a written motion of at least 15% of Conservative MPs in the House of Commons. Based on the current number of Conservative MPs in the House of...

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USDJPY breaks above the downward trendline. And the Moving Average shows the momentum is gathering. In the '90s, the USDJPY is in a wide range of 100-125. it seems the USDJPY is going to retest the upside range again. The US treasury yield's surging might trigger USD flow back to the US and the fund flow away from the EM market and USDJPY. Fundamentally, the...

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EUR/USD has rallied hard since March 2020. The EUR/USD is now trying to break below the 60-day moving average. DXY net short position is very high, and EUR's new long position in the future market is very high. Actually, the net long position is the highest among G7 currencies, so it's very prone to profit-taking or long position squeezing. Fundamentally, the...

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We will see an uptrend line (gold color) taking the log scale. A short-term trendline since 2009 is a monetary policy-induced rally (green color), which is a typical Wave V character. The Fed is signaling a faster pace in ending the infinite QE, which was introduced last year after the Covid-19 pandemic, is a milestone for the end of the extra-long bull market....

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In recent days, the market is paying particular attention to the US 10 year treasury yield. Fed is looking for inflation to reach 2.4% in the year-end, the 10-year Treasury yield should be above 2% easily. The yield spread and fund flow to USD with better fundamentals and advantage on the yield. DXY is likely to test 38.2% rebound resistance at 94.4 or 50% at 96....

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HSI break above the trade line and hold above it since 1992, will we break below the trend line as the status changed?

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As the dollar is going to rebound in oversold condition and record net short position in the past 10 years, the dollar will go further down. GBP is meeting resistance in 1.38. At this moment, GBP is testing 20-day MA. A close below it will open the room for more downside movement for GBP. GBP hit the low in March 2020 and rally for 10 months so that a rally can...

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Since March 2020, DXY declines all the way to 89.2, where is the measured target. The Weekly Chart is clearly shown a 5 waves movement. Furthermore, DXY is now too far away from the 60 weeks moving average together with momentum turning upward. Last week DXY open interest stroke another high means there is plenty of position that can be squeezed out. If a 0.236...

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According to the Guardian news: Brexit trade and security deal with EU within 'touching distance', says No 10 Boris Johnson briefs cabinet on breakthrough and is expected to address nation early on Christmas Eve www.theguardian.com Since 1953, GBPUSD is go below 1.4 two times, once is at 1987 when dollar is very strong. and other is since 2016 Brexit referendum...

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2020 is a year to remember, in March AUDUSD has found the multi-year bottom and turn upward. What we are expecting in 2021? We should look for a sideway to upward movement heading for 0.8137. some major support and resistance for reference are Support: 0.7132, 0.6821,0.6570. Resistance are 0.7635 and 0.8137. Technical: there is a big MACD divergence means the...

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Investor start take profit in EUR means consolidation should be started, the net long position in EUR is in multi-year high. Overbought and 1211 pips rally should make EUR head for South. the rally for the EUR has finished a 5 wave rally

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Theresa May is betting her legacy from the help of Jeremy Corbyn, will the two head be successful to deliver a deal Brexit before Halloween? After last Thursday’s local electionsin UK, in which both the Conservatives and Labour parties were punished severely by voters for failing to break the political deadlock, May and Corbyn have insisted their parties must now...

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Gold Breaks $1,400 Price Barrier and now what? Gold price has been capped under $1400 since 2013. Last rally of gold is from 2001 when gold was at $252 when Gordon Brown sold the Bank of England’s holdings, since then gold rally all the way to $1900 fueled by behedging of gold miners. Since then the hedge book of miner is diminished if not empty. These few...

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The measured downside target from 1.1 is 0.55 so we should expect a consolidation of sideway movement in 0.59-0.71. break above 0.72 means the whole trend changed to uptrend. the main strategic will be buy on dip.

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The Rally of the SPX from 1980 has ended, with the risk free rate started to fall from 1980 to now near 0. yield of 10 year treasury down o 0.5% the 5 wave rally is in. and with QE1,QE2,QE3 and credit then we have ended the credit push rally. a very typical wave 5 description we are like to test 2000 a 0.382 correction or even lower.(very likely)