btc1019

btc1019

An educational example showing how trends are made up of various types of movement and how 'prime processes' can be used to locate endpoints and time trend endings. This example proves that market structures use repeating values (that have been set early on) to time their own endings and turning points.

btc1019

As of the end of June, practically the last day of the month on the dot, BTC daily movement ended a price structure that began right around March 15. Here in the chart you can see the upward arrow in early June (compared to all the down arrows preceding it) - this is the initial (perhaps only) FCT of the new struct. At present I can't tell if the 8895 low is the...

btc1019

Watching the counts from the struct beginning at the middle March low, and judging from price behavior around the Dyad lines, we could be close to seeing this daily structure top. Will likely see a new high above 10494.8 but may then turn down for a good shorting op... Please see the orange box for definitions on all my cryptic comments! Enjoy!

btc1019

I must admit that the action in EURUSD during early March gave me some whiplash. I had pegged the last structure as ending Feb 20 so the action really broke limit boundaries on the last two structs, but I haven't analyzed back to Feb of 2018 so it's possible this whole downtrend since then is connected. My analysis comes in at Nov 12, 2018. What I'm saying is...

btc1019

Folks, here are the true lines at the 1D level for Bitcoin. Always use median lines (pitchfork) and draw the crossbar on a fractured counter-trend movement. Standard trendlines are nearly useless, often drawn incorrectly, and easily subject to bias. The real internal lines of force that markets themselves use are median lines.

btc1019

("FCT" = Fractured Counter Trend) Here I used a pitchfork based on the first fractured CT from the December 2018 structural low. It seems to fit the action quite well, so, IF Bitcoin drops below its current dip (the low of the larger FCT - high blue arrow), look for the turn around at or near this rising level (as indicated). Likely a hit of the top of the...

btc1019

Comparing the Coinbase and Bitfinex 1D Bitcoin charts shows that the current low of 5873 and 6000 respectively is a valid m4 bottom. Both downward movements add up to a total of 24 which is a multiple of 4 by way of 6. We get this by adding the points from the 3 primary waves in the Coinbase movement, 2+8+14 and the 4 primary waves in the Bifinex movement,...

btc1019

So I've been racking my brain over the past week or so trying to figure out if Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dash, and a few others are trending up or down in the daily time frame. When price shoots down to a new level quickly and then rebounds quickly (as it did at point C in LTC and D in ETH), there's always the question, Will it breach that point again or is that the...

btc1019

I think we have a nice little trade setup in the 2H chart. I'm looking closer at Litecoin right now but if I were trading this, I'd enter on a green 2H candle after the 5420 is hit. Pretty sure it's a down count at this time frame now... The 3D chart is most interesting - a new high would complete a 16 point count from the circa 1800 low. As mentioned in the chart...

btc1019

Still forming point 16 at the daily scale. If you stopped out at a higher price you might consider re-entering when the 4H move completes (see analysis in chart). If you stayed in you shouldn't have to suffer through too much more downward movement before the larger trend resumes. This current move down is a counter move within our trend, not the larger...

btc1019

So, just wanted to mention that it seems as though a valid trend 'end zone' is near for the daily Bitcoin uptrend. If I'm right this won't be the ultimate end for the trend but will result in a significant counter-trend movement comparable to or larger than the 9.20 counter-trend movement. This warning will be confirmed IF price makes a new high before any further...

btc1019

Needless to say we've got our suspected new high I mentioned in my last update. Bitcoin rose from around 4800 to a high of near 5200 overnight (hopefully you re-entered the market (as I did) yesterday evening). This along with another 'event pair' appearing in the daily chart completely changes the game. Now, in the daily chart (top left), instead of a 12 point...

btc1019

Here's the final count for the first 3 waves from the circa 3000 low. Might see a 4 or 5 days of loosing ground before the trend picks back up...

btc1019

Our criteria outlined in the last post has been reached with BTC making a new high above 4470. So, just to recap, we're using a new counting technique called M4 which claims that trends turn on counts that are multiples of the number 4. So, at the daily time frame we have, with this new high, entered a possible end zone for a 12 point count - which is a valid...

btc1019

Looking for one more new high above 4470 then a pullback, possibly to the trendline or the 3760 area. This would make the current movement from the 2975 low, a 12 point count spread out over 3 waves. 12 is a valid endpoint according to M4, the counting method I'm using (not using EWP here)... After this pullback, which may be roughly the size of the Sept. 19 move,...