A bit messy but when these monthly channels broke the last 2 times, it went a loooong way down..... Keeping an eye on this one now that we are 200 pips below the 50% fib & below the latest monthly channel.
This is an incredibly bullish channel that we've been in since May 1. 2,400 pip rise in 3 months. Great trade if you were long!
The channel has broken down now & I'll be a seller if we make it back up to 2.12/underside of broken TL, to start a potentially beautiful H & S on the daily. Potentially 2.00 being the target.
Linking to the AUD/USD chart I posted...
In the short term (before the BOE) I would expect a retest of the 23% fib and yesterdays high at 1.5240 pretty soon, perhaps a small bounce then a test of the 1.5180 highs and 38% fib. 100 hr MA should also be meeting around there by the time price gets there.
Will be watching the RSI & Stochastic to see if the bullish divergence gives way before taking a short....
Aussie falling like a rock for what seems like forever. BUTTTTT.... 61% fib and monthly trend line coming up?? hmm might be time to go long soon. RSI & stochastics are also very oversold. .7185 seems to be the spot.
Simple short here with price approaching the 38.2% fib of 1.2567 high to 1.2085 low, this fib also lines up with the 100HR MA. It's also previous support from April 15. To summarize:
- 38.2% fib at 1.2269
- 100hr MA at 1.2272
- 1.2270 area is previous support (april 15) and resistance (april 17)
stop: 1.2350 (risk 80)
target: 1.2100 (win 170)
Took a short on GBPJPY at 178.40 after price hit the 200 day MA and the 38.2% fib. We also hit our 4HR trend line. Price reacted nicely & bounced down to close the day with a shooting star, another bearish sign.
This trade fits with my fundamental outlook on GBP which should remain under pressure in the near term with Labour now leading most polls over Cameron,...
Nice simple channel confining price action for the last 8 days. A break above should illicit some more stop loss buying. If the minutes are hawkish I would think we start heading down to test the bottom of the channel.
If you're looking to get long GBPAUD, or add longs like me.. 1.9490-95 works well with the correction pattern on this uptrend. Corrections have been maxed at 150-160 pips so far.
Also coincides with the trendline.
LONG AT 1.9495, SL 1.9345, TARGET 1.9875
Here we have a true wedge playing out. This fits with the fundamentals & technicals. A perfect trade for my style.
I will be shorting at .7850 (23.5% fib) for a move to the downside targeting at least the 50% fib &100/200 MA's at .7750. Risk reward is great. Stop at .7875 above the wedge line.
BUY confirmed on GBPAUD. Testing 23.6% fib right now, which I think we will go right through. I am long from 1.8870.
Target 1: 38.2% fib & 100 hr MA at 1.9050-60 area. - TARGET REACHED FOR 180 PIPS
Target 2: 50% fib & 200 hr MA which will be 1.9140-70 by then - TARGET REACHED FOR 300 PIPS
Target 3: 1.9300. TARGET REACHED FOR 430 PIPS
GOOD LUCK !
GBPAUD is attempting to break out of the channel it's been confined to for the last week or so. Keep an eye on this one.
Will update the chart tomorrow with targets on the LONG side if this break proves to be valid.
1. Double top at .7800, psychological level
2. Broken daily trend line retest coming at .7700 area
3. 50% fib from .7559 low to .7845 spike high also at .7700
4. USD weakness overdone
5. Trade: Short at .7800, stop .7850, target .7700 (risk 50 pips to win 100)