I have posted this chart @ least twice and I'll keep on posting it, until this trendline is broken or we bounce higher once again and fly away so far that this line looses its significance. What ever the outcome will be in the end, today it looks like we are going to break it to the downside, but as it is the daily chart we need a solid close below the line and if...
Just couple of hours ago RBA announced that they will keep the rates @ 2,5%. Not a suprise to be honest. However, the spike higher is more than fishy as it has made a triple top if you will. I personally don't like double, triple or whatever tops and they make me very cautious. Even though the spike was 100% retraced, a lot of new short-term short positions will...
As I mentioned last week, USDCHF looks heavy and today we have reached an important area. The triangle there might be already broken to the downside but that alone does not really intrigue me. We all know that USDCHF and EURUSD tend to move in opposite directions and that makes this break very-very interesting as on Thursday we have the usual ECB press conference...
This pair has been annoying me for quite some time. I was expecting higher values, when we were around 1.1029 (@ the 38.2 fib) and then it sold off aggressively only to stabilize again and as far as I am concerned, it stabilized in the middle of nowhere. Also, I'd like to point out these two failed breakouts, which created two very similar (almost equal) zones, if...
AUDUSD is tricky to say the least. The move from the highs is fairly slow and in a very small channel which may give an impression of a weak move. However, next week things may change as a lot of Australian data is scheduled to be released. On Friday with the help of NFP the pair managed to pull off a nice false breakout and because of that I am looking for higher...
A lot of JPY pairs are showing some sort of triangular price action which indicates that a breakout move is getting closer. However, as all those triangles are all fairly well visible, I suspect that a false breakout may occur first. All in all - jpy pairs are worth tracking at the moment.
As my bearish wedge scenario in GBPUSD was blown in to pieces, I needed to reassess my strategy in that pair and clearly I missed something very important. The fact is that we seem to have a triangle there, which may already be broken to the upside and on firday with the help of NFP we went back and re-tested the upper trendline of the triangle. It is too early...
AUDUSD is slowly coming closer to an area which I find interesting. Im not looking to buy that pair, I just want to see what happens if it gets there. In bigger picture I prefer being short but I will sit on my hands until I reach the marked area and after that I will start looking for a possible entry to the short side, provided that everything goes as planned.
As we mentioned yesterday a pullback to 1.3850 area is very much possible and right now we are closing in on that figure. However, I would like it even lower before the NFP. The ideal retreacement would be at least 38.2% and more.
Interesting structure in that pair as the price is testing the former upward channel. Also there are enough evidence to suggest that we might have a triangle there as well. All combined makes me want to see that pair heading south. First thing we need to see is a clear break out from that triangle to consider any bearish outcome.
What a beautiful price action we had in EURUSD yesterday. First an aggressive move to the downside, taking out weak longs and sucking in as many bears as possible only to reverse sharply to upside and probably by now the bears are starting to give up. However, we may have another pullback to 1.3850 area because the triangle might not be finished in terms of...
USDCHF is showing a series of higher lows but its inability to get back above 0.8850 area makes me suspect that this effort to the upside may be very short lived. I hope that the 2 major risk events (FOMC & NFP) help to bring some clarity into this pair.
USDJPY has managed to stay above the trendline but has not really bounced from there anymore. It just stays above it and does nothing. So, as far as I am concerned the direction of future moves remains a coin flip for me. If we manage to break that line, then the next decent support comes @ 100.00 level, which of course is a big psychological level and it also...
While most of the major pairs were doing absolutely nothing worth mentioning, USDSEK on the other hand went and re-tested the weekly trendline. It is very important to look what the price does now as we need a proper lift off to have more confidence that we are done with this trendline for now.
I've been keeping my eye on that pair for some time and, in my opinion, things are starting to look interesting. I want to see that possible wedge to be broken to the downside and I expect it to reach the Areas of interest much faster than the move to the upside.
This is one of my old EURJPY charts and I like the fact that we have reached the uppertrendline. Depending on how to draw it, it is difficult to say if the line is still intact or not. Anyways - I'll be watching this pair closely and I'm looking @ 143 to the upside or 140 to the downside.
Last week EURUSD basically didn't move at all. It really felt like it is Christmas week and the markets are slowing down for he holidays but it's April, not December, as we all know. I remain slightly bearish on the pair and I would like to see price to reach the target area (green box) before the middle of the week.
Two things that are worth pointing out in EURCAD. The first one is the possible H&S which should take us higher. Even though the H&S looks quite nice, I personally don't like it here as it seems a bit too obvious and the possible right shoulder has taken too much time compared to the left one. But what i do like is the possible wedge there, which I think should...