It is exactly 3 months since Trend King was publicly released.
I am happy to announce the 1st quarter real-life results:
That's over +400% annualized ROI.
🤛25X #Bitcoin buy & hold returns with no leverage.
A $10K investment --> $15K = subscription fees paid off multiple times over.
This includes trading fees 60% higher than BitMEX and Binance and...
Did you buy $BTC?
The Bitcoin Hash Ribbon Buy (indicator released October 2019) was exactly one month ago today.
Let's check in on performance to date:
- Max downdraw: -5%
- Max Returns: +26%
So far, all within the normal historical range.
A Wyckoff view of Bitcoin
Potential "Accumulation" pattern forming.
Intermediate target: ~$7800
My bias is bullish given the weight of fundamental evidence for a bottom. But even if this is a Wyckoff "Re-distribution" (bad) $7800 test likely.
Safest entry is on confirmation.
Bitcoin is currently trading at a ~35% discount to its energy value, suggesting a value opportunity for the long-term investor.
Further, the Bitcoin Energy Value Oscillator shows a near identical 3-step pattern to the prior bull markets.
Trend King V2 includes all Trend King V1 Technical Indicators + fundamentals for additional return and reduced historical draw-downs:
Hash Rate Bottom Fishing
BitMEX Sniper Mode - for the Hard Code trader
Past Performance is no guarantee of future results.
A visualization of Bitcoin Hash Rate vs Difficulty.
This helps to show why Difficulty is a lagging indicator.
Difficulty is like a moving average that only updates once every 2 weeks.
Increased Difficulty is not necessarily good... Hash Rates are better for timing capitulation.
The Metric we have been tracking closely the last days has finally confirmed.
The 1 and 2 month Hash Rates have crossed. We are in a Bitcoin Miner Capitulation.
The only question now is, how deep will we go.
Trend King officially launched on 3 November - so far we can't complain with the first trade!
Trend King subscribers currently sitting happy SHORT through Bitcoin's volatility:
- Up 12% from launch date
- Trade up 15% from "SELL" signal
PM me for more info and to get in on the action!
The current plateau in Hash Rate growth is most unusual for Bitcoin.
The Hash Ribbons 1 month and 2 month moving averages have never been this close - for so long - except during a capitulation event.
We can measure the relative "growth" of the current month Hash Rate (HR) to the prior 2 months as: Growth = (1m HR - 2m HR)/(1m HR)
In November 2019, "Growth" has...
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons are extremely close to a potential Miner Capitulation.
Should a Capitulation occur (crossover of the ribbons), it is not the time to be buying Bitcoin.
The best times to buy Bitcoin is on Hash Rate recovery, as identified by this indicator.
For now, we are "still in the green", and Bitcoin's price may have already bottomed.
“Trend King” combines 4 proprietary indicators. It buys and sells based on:
The strategy was built on 2 years of BitMEX data (XBTUSD) and backtested on 9 years of Bitcoin data (BLX). Finally, the strategy was validated on multiple large market cap cryptocurrencies,...
Metcalfe's Law has been successfully used to value a variety of network effect technologies and businesses, including Facebook and Tencent.
Applying Metcalfe's Law to Bitcoin , using "Daily Active Addresses" (DAA) as the "n" value, yields interesting results.
Historically, Bitcoin has tracked the Metcalfe Law Fair Price reasonably well. A number of studies have...
ABOUT DYNAMIC RANGE NVT SIGNAL
NVT Signal (Credit: woobull.com) is akin to a "PE" ratio for Bitcoin, and can be used to identify when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold based on the relative value of transactions sent across the network.
This indicator includes a 2 year moving average and standard deviation to identify outlier values, instead of declaring a...
The “Recession Watch” indicator tracks 7 key economic metrics which have historically preceded US recessions. It provides a real-time indication of incoming recession risk.
While not flawless, this indicator gives a good picture of when risk is increasing, and therefore when you might want to start taking some money out of risky assets.
All of the last seven...
In the last 50 years, every time US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later.
However, once the market peaks, it drops 37.6% on average.
Assuming you can...
The mean time between official (NBER) US recessions over the last 150 years has increasing a lot (see gray lines).
Yet the S&P 500 % drops remain relatively consistent averaging 25%.
The market is considerably stabler than it was a century ago.