chartwatchers

chartwatchers Updated 

Oil closed on the 10 EMA with strong volume today. This fight is not decided yet. It is looking better for me than yesterday. We are on day 21 in the 2nd daily cycle.It's simply too early to start the move into the daily cycle low. So this week and the next is still there for oil to rally. In this decline we have maximum tomorrow and Friday to tag the 20 EMA.

chartwatchers Updated 

After a key reversal (Bearish pin bar) and a double top yesterday gold finally broke down the 1290$ level. We tested back this level and turned down from the neckline of the double top pattern. The 10 EMA was catching up the price and supporting the downtrend. The market is a little bit nervous so we will test back again and again the 20 EMA ( like 2 hours...

chartwatchers Updated 

I'm not happy that some of you closed the DUST positions yesterday. Today we will open with a GAP which will not be filled and we will break the blue trendline. I'm 99.9% sure that we are going to run at least to 4$. And 95% sure that we we will tag the FIBO 23.6% level at 5.95. (447%)

chartwatchers Updated 

So the bad news are that we broke down the uptrending channel yesterday because of the rallying dollar. The breakdown volume was also good... And we also break down the smaller descending channel which was a false breakdown because - and here comes the good news- we are still back into this channel. If we can close back above the 10 EMA today than the whole...

chartwatchers

I'm not very happy because Oil lost the 10 EMA today. Most probably the reason is the strengthening dollar. I was waiting for a red candle but not a close below the 10 EMA. It's still too early for a daily cycle low (that would mean a 8$ fall from the top - in this case we would have a decline from 46$ to 38$) so it will be a 4-5 $ pullback to the 20 EMA...

chartwatchers Updated 

The Saudis tricked me out in Doha. I wasn't able to realize that we are in the purple channel. The 200 EMA is supporting very nicely our trend. After Doha we had the false breakout - the Saudi's beartrap- but the trend's direction was not really changed... So now I think something really serious has to happen to break down here... Otherwise we should pop to 45$...

chartwatchers Updated 

DUST opened with a gap (hard to see on the picture if you ZOOM it's there) and suffered a -18.77% decline. It was a capitulation. I think the thing what is happening in the miners is very important for gold. Miners will have an intermediate decline in the following weeks. And the reverse fund DUST will rally like crazy. The intermediate lows in DUST are always...

chartwatchers Updated 

This is an interesting chart... CAD is rallying since January. Even it was able to rally (USDCAD pair was falling) when the dollar had some pullbacks from the middle of February till the end of February.(green) But now I see internal weakness. Price couldn't tag the lower trendline for weeks now. Though the dollar was falling in April USDCAD was not able to fall...

chartwatchers Updated 

Hard time for shorts again. Every dip is bought. We haven't tagged the 50 EMA for days. I want to prepare you that on this 4 hrs chart we will test back the 100 EMA and maybe break marginally below it. So most probably on Monday or Tuesday we will stop a little bit and come back to the 100 EMA before we enter the 48-52 area to print the daily cycle high.

chartwatchers

I got a few messages what do I think the dollar is turning. I'm trying my best to find that out: It's not going to go lower than the red box. So the reversal should occur the latest between 91.20 - 91.70

chartwatchers Updated 

Though I still think that the dollar rally is very close I would wait now with entering the short position. It seems price wants to break above the August high. It will be a marginal breakout but price will not rally after this breakout and there will be no follow through above 1.17. We are just too late in this intermediate cycle. Next week lit of news: Draghi...

chartwatchers Updated 

Traders who are going long in gold in these days are running after the price. We are very late in this gold intermediate cycle : it started on 12.04.2015. We are in the 4th daily cycle. Usually an IC has 3 daily cycles in gold. 1st DC: 28 days, 2nd DC : 23 days, 3rd DC: 28 days, 4th DC: 24 days ( and not finished yet) A daily cycle has 25-40 days. It seems we...

chartwatchers

The greenback (DXY - US DOllar Index) entered into a panic selling stage when broke down the 93.9 level. That usually lasts for around 5 days so it can turn anyday now. Maybe today , maybe tomorrow... Price also broke below the August low. Technical traders will enter into this market with shorts but cyclewise we are very late. The decline will not be...

chartwatchers Updated 

We are also very late in the US Dollar Intermediate cycle. The price tagged the bottom of the range. We might break marginally below the August low but the rally can start any day now. Maximum 2-3 days we have in this decline. Important news next week: Draghi talks on Monday , NFP on Friday. Who knows which will trigger the dollar rally? Draghi wants to weaken...

chartwatchers Updated 

Oil is doing exactly what I was waiting for. It's crawling day after day with green candles. I want to prepare you that most probably on Monday we will have a testback to the 10 EMA on the daily chart. So we will have a red candle. I know that we would like to see as price just running to moon. But that's not going to happen. We need the support of the 10 EMA to...

chartwatchers Updated 

I don't know who is buying - probably dumb money - I know who is selling: Big banks, funds - smartmoney... The buyers are the short traders who are getting caught by margin calls and those bulls who exited this trade earlier and now thinks that price is not going to stop and they are jumping on board. No professional trader is buying at this level. Trees are...

chartwatchers

25% decline from the "we are here" top to the 200 EMA. This is not shopping time.

chartwatchers Updated 

This is the panic what we see now. Short covering and late bulls' panic to get on board before price is skyrocket to the moon. This will be the top of gold in this intermediate cycle.