christian.langfors

christian.langfors

Price action guesstimate

christian.langfors

Bias still up, although ugly red candle forming today.

christian.langfors

USD taking a beating lately, still expecting AUD to test break-out level. No open trades..

christian.langfors

It is not too stretched but currently guessing we'll pull back into the box. Small short opened.

christian.langfors

Mid term trend is down and likely to continue down after this rebound is over.

christian.langfors

USDCAD is taking a beating and no questions about the trend of the FX-pair. However, a rebound has quite high probabilities from around this level incoming 5 trading days.

christian.langfors

Lot's of fuzz in the "social investing media" about the broken SPY trend line that, well, is just a darn trend line after all. The advance this year has been quite steep and without much pullbacks so it is about time to get a different tune. There is though some points that should be pointed out: 1) the current decline differs from the previous since it is a)...

christian.langfors

Is it time to go into the resistance zone (and a bit above) to test supply and demand?

christian.langfors

So, BTFD again or DFTB (deep-fuck-the-bulls)? Well, depends on ones timeframe and target I guess.. We might get a rebound soon, perhaps already tomorrow but I'm guessing this pullback is just about to start. 12k and 11,6k targets for now. GL!

christian.langfors

CADJPY is getting somewhat stretched and the probability for a pullback is getting higher. Short now with target marked on the chart has a 57% probability with 2,09 profit factor. !!Go against the trend at your own risk!!

christian.langfors Updated 

Nice move once again by DAX. Mean reversion strategy is now short, target ~12800. Note it is a high risk strategy with big stop (250p) and not that good reward but it has a high hit rate as of this year. To get better reward, try to pin point entry on 5min or 15min chart. GL!

christian.langfors

..no comments..

christian.langfors

DAX is currently consolidating on the weekly chart. Historically (going back to 2007), every time we'd consolidated with similar price action, we had a big move ahead in the mid term future (1-4 months). I have no backtesting probabilities on the pattern but a "visual backtest", we are getting quite far away from mean. Although it is not even close to records,...

christian.langfors

A high risk (~270points stop/loss) mean reversion strategy suggesting we'll go below 12650 / 12700 during next week. Risk:reward is currently quite bad (i.e. risk more than you could gain) and the probability is around 57%. After a "visual backtest", usually we'd get another push up before we'll pull back in similar events in the past. That is, look for weakness...

christian.langfors

SPX momentum is getting weaker. This doesn't necessarily mean "we-go-down-tomorrow" but it is a head's up red flag, high odds trouble down the road (unless bulls find more fresh cash to swing prices higher on good momentum). Note also that momentum can be weak for a looong time before it actually turns south.

christian.langfors

Russell 2000 index have not been painting the same kind of chart pattern as SPY or Dow. The bigger picture is starting to remind of a megaphone pattern that is quite rare and somewhat bearish.

christian.langfors

..no comments..

christian.langfors

.. not expecting a (up) trend day today.