Elliot Wave Analysis is workout out decently.
We saw this leg up a little sooner than I anticipated. I accumulated A and C and was waiting for E before the unexpected jump past 4000 $CNY (602 area). This doesn't complete Wave 1 of Primary Wave 5 yet. If you check the FIB it rejected right at 0.786. I'm assuming we get more sideways movement and then a break-out...
I'm looking at a buy-zone of $578.00 to $583.00 right between my MA's. OBV looking healthy, %B about to cross upwards of 0.5. We may be going into a BB squeeze-- we'll need to see how this develops over the next week.
The 1D is also showing signs of the reversal with confirmation @ around the $600.00 area. Some may believe that 600's the psychological FOMO...
I generally do not try to predict anything outside of a few days, which is why I stopped plotting EW's a long time ago, but this kinda stood out and I thought I would share.
I don't remember the exact fibs for estimating wave no. 5 so I'm assuming that past resistance will come into play and reject at 844 or (most likely) earlier.
At this rate, we should be...
$xauusd and $tip had a couple of down days and I anticipated yesterdays $gdx pullback at the open. I jumped on a few small buys between 30.20 - 30.25 and sold my July 1st buys into the 30.60 recovery. Just like in December, the miners are lagging and I would definitely start to scale-back all weak hands before the 31.33 - 32.14 falling window resistance.
This...
I really don't expect anything drastic to happen.
But, to recap: On the 30 minute, we're just under the Kumo. T/K looks like they're about to go back negative.
RSI still hanging out in bear territory. MACD looks like it will cross over signal and go positive but without co-witnessing from RSI, this doesn't mean much.
We got a nice BB squeeze and %B is...
$AG and $SLV are doing excellent. $GPL is currently the weakest performer of this up-trend. But, look at this rocket ship. Been unloading on the rallies and re-loading on the dips. Might be time to start scaling out soon.
My daily MA got broken. Sold another 20% of my bag which was bought @ 620.00. I'm expecting more downward moves at this point. Bearish DIVs on daily MACD.
Tons of Bear scat on the 4 hour also. A single clean break below the Kumo. Chinkou Span below candles, T/K are both in the negative. %B went into oversold territory but BandWidth is showing me that this...
So we fell back below the Kumo on the 1HR, got a weak TK cross and a rejection. We're now back into the turbulence on weak volume. BB looking weak with %B unable to cross over 0.5 and MACD trying to cross back above 0 but just managing to flat-line. Looks like more drop for the short-term, probably bounce off of 655 again if we don't get above the Kumo. Long-term...
We're finally above the Kumo and finding
resistance at 698.00 (previously tested on
06/25). Kijun-Sen hasn't crossed into
positive territory yet. I'm bullish here but I
ditched my weak hands anticipating the
upset. If we fall, we'll be looking at 661-ish.
Watching things a little closer here. From the initial break into the Kumo at around 640, the rise has looked steady. Even the recent jump from 677 to 689 stayed within the red zone (0.236). We should be looking at 710 within the next couple of days.
Closing out 680 positions in intervals and holding everything from low-600s. Once Kijun-Sen makes it out of the Kumo, then we should be ready to squeeze some shorts and touch 710. BB looks like it's setting the stage for another leg up. Anything above 720 is #bag-holder city, tread cautiously.
I'm following price action and everything is pointing towards more breakdown. MACD's falling and RSI's bumping 30 on the 4HR. We're under the Kumo and BB's telling me that this thing's not even close to oversold yet. Gonna see what kinda shennanigans are happening on the tape and then most likely enter SHORT.
We've been having problems with this 653.00 - 656.00 area. We've had two rejections off of the 4HR Kumo so far but I'm anticipating a breakout. BB indicators seem to be hinting towards this thing turning bullish, my MA's crossed and the Daily is still in an uptrend imo. MACD looks like shit but I've got enough to increase my #bag-holder position @ the VWAP.
Thinking about scalping a quick short. It doesn't look like there is enough volume to break into the Kumo. Weak TK cross under resistance. Entering if this thing wicks when touching Kumo in the dreaded 666.00 area.
Waiting for a close in the 612.00 - 615.00 area on the next Daily. If it happens, I'll get bullish. Ichimoku on the 4HR just had a perfect kumo rejection. Not selling my current spot position yet though, bag-holding from 680. This month started off so green...
