This is as simple as it gets.. Dollar index has extremely missed his 200 ema for a long time, it is time to get down to the 200 EMA where EUR.USD should see 1.16-1.18 in next few months. The trick is, you have to be ready to pay that interests while you are waiting for the big rewards.
I think it is just a simple supply and demand zone where you can start buying this pair. Obviously the AUD has been discounted for a while, which in a way it is increasing the order flow from Australia zone. I strongly believe that economy in Australia will get a boost in the discounted currency this year for a great year ahead.
I have a child that I always teach them to take turns. It sucks just to wait for your turn, but how would you know right? We don't just wait at the beginning of other's turn and wait for it.. we look for an indicator.. In real life trading, I just look for this 52 week .618 fib number around 1.1625. That's my take on EUR.USD turn. Just plain and simple rule of nature.
I think the price extension of USD has shown some exhaustion especially with good NFP. This could be the grand of scheme for the rest of the season toward December. If the price point goes all the way to 1.41, a good short opportunity for UsdCad