US 10-year Bonds have broken out of 2 triangles now and breaking down.
I count 5 waves in this massive triangle that formed between March 8th and June 24th with the final wave "e" itself being a triangle with 5 subways.
Remember - triangles - per Elliot rules - are found either as wave 4's, wave B's (middle of a correction) OR as wave E's as the final "wave" of...
It certainly looks like the rise since June 15th lows on the SPX is shaping up like a classic Ending Diagonal.
I have put the wave counts as best I can fit them.
Today's rise on the surface didn't "look" complete to me and I put good odds of pop up tomorrow above the upper trendline - what Elliot called a "throw-over" and which I usually just call an "overshoot"...
Credit for this research goes to Nomura's Charlie McElligott - as reported by Zerohedge.com tonight.
Tomorrow (I'm in LA so it is just before midnight here) or today (depending on your timezone and when you see this post) Wednesday, July 22 is VIX Futures expirations day.
Last expirations and next expirations for 2020:
22 January 2020
19 February 2020
The Fed money printing is certainly making for a challenging time for technicians and ellioticians as market distortions and price-discovery breakdowns are at historic levels.
I have never in my time trading been as challenged as have been since May. While I played the down wave from Feb highs to March lows easily and played the rally from close to the lows to...
These charts show the 3 months and the hourly charts of the RATIO of NDX (NASDAQ100 CASH) to the SPX (S&P500 CASH).
It is no surprise the ratio has been rising since the dot-com crash lows and now have reached valuation levels of NASDAQ compared to S&P not seen in March 2000.
The chart on the left and the pink dotted horizontal line shows a comparison of this...
The Russel 2000 is probably exhibiting one of the clearest Elliotwave counts of all US Indices.
For one we can see a very clearly impulsive 5-wave drop from June 8th highs to June 15th lows.
Next we see a triangle in the middle of the retracement higher since which is a classic middle-of-retracement move.
Triangles are patterns prior to final ending...
While this is certainly not the basis of my prediction of a new bear market drop coming in the S&P, Dow, and Russel (and possibly the NASDAQ) I can't help but notice similarities in price action in the S&P Cash Index just prior to the June 10-15 drop.
Inverted CBOE Total Put-to-Call ratio is shown at the bottom and its levels have been showing similarity to the...
The plot of the 10-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) of the INVERTED CBOE TOTAL PUT-to-CALL Ratio against the TVC:DJI - Dow Jones Industrial Average.
We can see that from the all time Highs back in Feb to the latest lower highs, the 10-day SMA of the INVERTED PUT-to-CALL Ratio keeps making higher highs even though the Dow is making lower highs.
The higher the...
Update on my last post on SPX futures but this time on the cash.
My opinion that an ending DIagonal final wave C (in the Bear Market Rally since March lows) is being formed has not changed.
Ending diagonals can be tricky creatures and we often see short-term sharp overshoots of the top trendline in the final 5th subwave.
The above count is the worst-case...
Another bullshit "vaccine news" to suck in the gullible bulls.
2 Ellipses drawn above were pops, pump and dumps on supposed "good" vaccine news.
Insiders (including CFO and CEO) have been dumping stock non-stop. If their "vaccine" is so game changing why are they dumping?
Look at candle pattern on day of "vaccine news". We have formed an identical...
Following from my last 3 posts tonight all on the S&P - see links below (Elliot wave counts, divergences with Put-to-Call Ratios and NYSE Advance-Decline Line).
This post now examines the S&P Cash Index with the INVERTED VIX.
So as INVERTED VIX goes down here it means the options market is expecting increased volatility - usually indicative of creeping fear and...
Following from my last two posts tonight (see links below) on the Elliot wave counts and divergence with CBOE Total Put-to-Call Ratios.
This chart shows as the S&P Cash Index has rallied since the March lows each push upwards is accompanied by weaker and weaker breadth as the NYSE Advance-Decline Line keeps making lower highs.
This is NOT the sign of an...
Following up from my last post which charted the Elliowaves since the Feb highs and which projected the end of the Bear Market Rally from March lows as likely having been today - implying the wave C drop to March lows is in process.
Here I have charted the INVERTED CBOE TOTAL Put-to-Call Ratio with the SPX Cash Index.
When the inverted TOTAL Put-to-Call ratio...
The slight new high in the TVC:SPX and OANDA:SPX500USD necessitates a slight recounting of the Elliot waves to account for the clear 5 wave drop from June 8th high to June 15th low while also accounting for the slight new high today.
Bottom line no matter how you slice and dice it the crash from Feb highs to March lows was a clearly impulsive 5 wave drop and...
On July 1st I posted the Elliot Wave Count since the Feb highs to July 1 and outlined the future path DOWN.
This is an update on that post zooming in on the minute wave counts down from the recent wave 2 (of 3 of C DOWN).
On the left is the same chart (also see a link to that post below) where I have not moved my projections (see red line down of wave 3...
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been in a massive multi-year triangle consolidation pattern since last 2017.
Wave E of the triangle has completed a Leading Diagonal minor "a of E."
Next is a higher minor "b of E" to retest falling upper trendline of the multi-year triangle.
After we should get a violent minor wave "c of E" drop to between lower trendline and 61.8%...
Update on my larger S&P (SPX and SPX500USD) elliotwave count posted last night (see link below).
Wave c of 2 has completed and at end of today wave 3 of C is in its early stages that by the end of summer should take us down to the March lows.
See my VIX , VXN to NASDAQ comparison and DXY charts posted last night...all confirming the bear...
Elliot wave counts on VIX.
It calls for VIX (volatility and fear) to soon explode higher in line with my Elliotwave bearish projections on the S&P Futures (SPX500USD and SPX) and higher calls for the US Dollar Index (DXY).
See below links for Elliotwave counts just posted on S&P Futures and US Dollar Index.
RIsk OFF is about to enter the markets in a major...