darobsta

darobsta Updated 

Price may be heading for confluence of :- - 85% from all time high (about the average for BTC) - 200MA on the 1w - High volume on the VPVR Thinking of spreading most orders in between 2700 and 3000.

darobsta Updated 

Hi, I had already experimented with fitting some curves to long term data, they just seem to fit better than the usual straight lines, especially when considering older data :- However, I had never attempted an extrapolation, until I saw Flavius' idea on Mega cycles :- So, I have attempted to continue his idea, combine with my curved long term channel...

darobsta

The rising support we dumped through is being tested. Just above that sits the old descending resistance. Horizontal resistance/support carry more weight with most people, but these diagonal trend lines have been diligently followed so they can't be ignored. It's a critical few weeks coming for BTC, especially with the ETF decision coming. A positive outcome...

darobsta Updated 

Route A takes us to 4.9k (75% from all time high) then back up to the top of the channel, before visiting the bottom. Route B takes us down straight away to the bottom of the channel at 2.8k (86% from all time high), then it will rest and gather strength for later. Route C is all other routes, and is much more likely! ;-) Clearly, this is all just guesswork,...

darobsta

In my last idea I tried to superimpose the previous bubble's double peak - as this is popular "bull porn" and worth considering I thought. However, I couldn't quite shake the feeling that 20k is just as likely to be the top of the mysterious channel that we all stare as while configuring lambos. To me, its a smidge more convincing than my previous idea, and the...

darobsta Updated 

A slightly revised version of my previous idea (linked below). It goes to 2.8k :-( :-/ :-| :-) Basically the same as my last idea, except I thought I would throw the 2016 channel in there. Strangely, the lower trendline of the channel matched my "low mean" almost exactly. Hmm. I zoomed in on the 2014 decline from top and it's interesting to look at...

darobsta Updated 

The hype is over for now. The moon kids have disappeared from the forums. The mainstream news is quiet. Bitcoin may be crawling back into its hole to lick its wounds for a while. We have already dropped 70% off All Time High, just like the last mega bubble. If we were to follow the same pattern as last time, we would drop around 85% and end up around 3k and...

darobsta Updated 

Hi, Our dip to 7.2k and double top is looking a lot like the big dip to 6k and double top at 11.7k. If we repeat that, and the bulls don't completely lose their minds, we will bounce off the 78% fib and the rising log support. Things would get quite tight after that, as we get trapped between the descending line from 19k-17k-11.7k and the rising log support...

darobsta Updated 

Hi, So, we were pushed down by the bearish trendline (linear, Bitfinex) from 19k-17k... AND not supported by the bullish support line from 6K. Oh dear. I had reduced my BTC exposure at around 11.5k (before rejection!) and am now about 40% exposed, from 60% before. We will get support somewhere on the journey down, but where? My bet is around the 0.5 fib...

darobsta

Hi, Started scaling in buys as and when supports were confirmed. These are shown in the green zones and trend lines. Last buy was at 8800 and have not FOMOd in since the charge to 10k. I am waiting for some kind of confirmation that the resistance zones and lines have been turned into support. A retrace and strong bounce off an unconfirmed support (blue)...

darobsta Updated 

If we make the assumption that this is just a correction from the bull run, I have drawn 61.8% fib retracements from key starts of bull runs, from the very start in mid 2015 to the recent runs that broke the 2017 channel. All other factors ignored for this perspective. This leads to a reversal zone of 7500 to 9300.

darobsta

Hi, I am not normally into conspiracy theories, but I am interested in any impact (if any) on the spot market from the CBOE and CME futures markets. I have marked the start and end of the 2 futures markets. There was a clear downtrend for the first CBOE duration and a clear up tick after if ended. Let's see what happens when the CME futures expire. Perhaps...

darobsta

After the rise to 20k Bitcoin corrected to the expected 61.8% fib retrace level. Then we expected / hoped for a period of consolidation before continuing the meteoric rise, and I think we're kinda getting it. Today we have South Korea FUD. Lots of official statements from Korea claiming it's all OK, no ban, etc - but still some mistrust and uncertainty...

darobsta

So, for me, trading channels are "out" and parabolas are "in". I pulled a curve out of my arse and fit it as best I could. I wanted it to go nearly vertical without folding over itself (obviously) and with only 3 control points, so I couldn't "hack" the data, so to speak. What does it all mean? I don't know. Bitcoin is madness. I'm just holding for now,...

darobsta

Today is both exciting and terrifying. Probably going to sell some at Madness levels, if it ever makes it there.

darobsta

While BTC is finding it's feet in no man's land and hopefully carving a channel for itself, I thought I would look at the longer term channel. I have pulled some lines out of my arse and placed some callouts on levels of madness, insanity, etc. While it's clear we're in a bubble, I think we might have a small bubble first, then we will lick our wounds and create...

darobsta

If we go back over 8k and to the top of the 2017 channel for a new true all-time-high (rather can continuing to dip), then that might indicate the channel is tightening. The lows would be getting higher and there would be less and less room for Bitcoin to breathe. It will need breathing space and with the buying pressure increasing over 2017 and showing no signs...

darobsta

Well.. it hit 8k. :-O Can it go further? The top of the channel says so, but a double top is often enough to send it tumbling down. Let's see. I havent sold any BTC yet. No idea whats going to happen - will just have to play it by ear. Good luck