Highest amount of open interests ever and an almost 10 % reduction of net short % positioning has prepared crude for the next short squeeze... Current Positioning is below moving averages. So, prepare for the break of 52.
With JPY tumbling I expect another significant move today. 1190-1200 handle should be broken...
For sure we need to expect at least some kind of technical correction in Crude. BUT if we do not get a higher high a Head and Shoulders pattern should be expected to develop targeting the 30 Region... Last COT Data are some bit of meaningless since commercials were on hold due to elections. Next week should tell us a bit more.
A really high volume and a strong momentum... It seems that we're going fast to target region. It'll be the 12-13 handle. Next good short entry on retest of Neckline.
I know It's NASTY... But on the successful breakout of the inner falling wedge and reaching the target the more that 40 Year old bond bull market is OVER. The impact on all asset classes is enourmous.
I was hoping for a healthy test of the 42 Region, but.... With HYG / JNK back in the upward direction, I rather expect quite a short squeeze back to 50-52 Region in the following 2 weeks. On OPEC production cut rumours and it's confirmation 60 Region should be reachable, but the correction after such a short squeeze will follow...
Yesterday's 10 year t bond auction wit the lowest bid to cover since 2009 shows treasury yields are rising on a stronger dollar... This will impact gold dramatically.
From Volume analysis it seems that BOJ, SNB and PBOC had a massive intervention at 5.30 CET. ECB and BOE maybe still to come.
With last weeks positioning of 17 % net long by commercials the Weinergate mail's have been praised in quite a bit in futures... Yesterday the correction started and the upside potential is in the range of 2250-2300. I think we should expect today a more quiet trading day but I rather believe Mrs. Clinton to win elections.
With the 20 day periodicity already shown with HUI & XAU it is worth starting a short on GDX & GDXJ via DUST JDST. Targeting sub 20 Region in GDX. Minimum expected around Nov 21.
presenting without further comments. down till Nov 20/21... up till Dec. 9
This week's COT report shows a divergent behaviour of commercials positioning between Futures and Options. Futures NetShort % Positioning up, Options down!!! I marked recent behaviour similar to the current (Options down 2%+) and clearly visible from Stochastic this behaviour occurs at turning points! At oversold Positions (this year April) an upward movement...
Really nice for LT investors... I was hoping that such a selloff would happen after Algier Meeting some time ago. We have oversold RSI and Stochastic and a high volume . I guess commercials net short % positioning from Tuesday will be in the rand of 17-18 % (we see it Saturday) and next week back to 14-16%. I currently hope for a correction till 42-43 Support...
Nice little bear flag... I am happy to see that the correction is really FAST!
DXY weighted 30 Year deliverable Interest Rate Futures point to a major overvaluation of Gold... Be aware! At some time this Gap will be closed.Especially considering the high probability of a December Rate Hike.
A view on miners indices (hui + xau) shows that we reached a tripple resistance consisting of a head and shoulders neckline, a longer term support line and the upper border of the downward channel. With the current weak momentum in Gold I do not expect the break of the tripple resistance, but if this happens one should clearly go long.
Sometimes it is worth to check gold against a currency basket. Here XDR. We are reaching the upper limit of the trend channel... A short is more reasonable.
From the current COT positioning of commercials (23% net short) a significant drop till 40 usd seems to be quite likely, but we should be aware that this positioning is based on news that Irak, Iran Russia... are not willing to accept Algier consens on production freeze/cut. A sudden change may surprise to the upside. Keep also in mind that Saudi Aramco IPO will...