This weeks COT data shows the interesting point that commercials reduced their NetShort% positions by 5% within 2 weeks... That's a whole lot. Positioning is back to long time average. So I would not expect a further healthy reduction of 2-3% in their positioning. On the other side HYG/JNK shows some dip and one can expect crude to follow. But be aware that any...
Marks & Spencer usually follows FTSE movement. Some bit of different since June... But no reason why. Starting an initial position.
Finally some movement. Since we don't see a selloff in JNK/HYG I would expect a correction to 2080 and maximum 2040 ... Initiated by the FED, I guess to check market reaction what to expect on an unexpected rate hike, and it will be saved by the FED. Mr. Bullard again....?
Last week we had a rare cot signal making a selloff quite reasonable. This week (last Tuesday) we in addition got a sell signal from options positioning from commercials. Be aware that we quite often have a fast change in options positioning prior to a major direction change. If 1300 does not hold prepare for the short of the year...
After this really nice short squeeze a correction is more than normal and healthy. We had a NetShort% reduction of 1% till last Tuesday (48.4 to 46.2) and since Tuesday a further correction till 43. So we should be back in the range of the long term average of 15-16%. So, the only way is up...
One of the biggest short squeezes in crude since quite a few years. A correction now is quite normal but there is no reason till now to be concerned. Still expecting 50+ USD soon. A good leverage on Crude will be the offshore drillers since with crude going above 50 we will see significant short covering at these companies. Guess SDRL will go from 2.70 back to the...
After retest of Neckline a classical short. Now still on hold...
103-104 seems to be the max target for USDJPY... a brexitless view shows an almost perfect shs formation with a downside target at the bottom of the medium term channel. worth trying a short... except if boj starts further easing.
In one of my last S&P posts I noticed the reduction of shorts by commercials while price was range bound. From current positioning I would expect the start of a correction to the 2080 region....
By last Tuesday we had an increase of short positioning from commercials and an increase of net long by non commercials. But on a tumbling Gold Price. This seems to be a preparation of a major move. If we see a significant shift of Options positioning by next weeks cot report, I would expect quite a significant move coming soon. In addition we had a short attack...
another day another try....
1230-1260 seems to be coming. On break of descending triangle pattern starting a short.
Exceptional Volume an fun on 1 minute scale. As I am writing this JJ's speech did not start....
Although there is the myth going around that Q4 is the best quarter for gold a projection of the "till year end" Gold performance after J-Hole Meetings since 2011 shows something different.
Worth having a look at Gold in a Currency Basket. After breaking 50 day MA beginning of the week, yesterday we broke the bottom of the descending triangle. Clear short! Seems in USD same will happen.