decaro

decaro

NMTR had an incredible run over the past month. But it appears that it has been rejected at resistance, and will retrace fib levels back toward $1.00 before exiting this wedge. A defined risk strategy here is to buy the $1.00 puts, continue rolling them out, and then within the next month add the $1 calls to form a long straddle. Be careful as liquidity is low.

decaro Updated 

Fundamental thesis of the stock's decline is related to disappointing earnings, ARK fund outflows, and possibly the Biden administration's less friendly attitude toward some Palantir clients. Technically, the stock is in a descending wedge, and an escape upward in the next few weeks would put it into the ascending megaphone and/or channel. I am aggressively...

decaro Updated 

K has got to be one oft the most boring stocks out there. It is positively geriatric. But it pays a 3.96% yield, an $82 fair value by Morningstar, and has a wide moat as a result of intangible assets and cost edge over competitors. I expect the stock to break out of its short-term descending wedge by the end of spring, where it will enter the longer-term wedge...

decaro Updated 

Bravo GME! The skeptic in me says that the pre-market breach of the upper red trend line will be short-lived, and that the stock will break back into the megaphone next week or the week afterward. I will be buying the stock on pullbacks this week, and looking for opportunities to buy bearish put spreads. Manage your size, and don't wager what you can't afford to lose.

decaro Updated 

This is a mighty COVID treatment play. It's a coin flip whether it will break up or down out of the blue dashed wedge, but when it does. . . there are many place it can go. Options prices remain elevated even for $10 strikes (around the lower ascending channel). All depends on the Phase III trial data and analysis. Personally, I bought 1000 shares in the...

decaro

A look at the past and three possibilities for this decade.

decaro

Love it or hate it, it's BLUE. Anecdotal, non-scientific evidence of a serious side effect prompted a halt of a trial of a product, and the company is investigating. No one knows anything else until the company reports. End. Of. Story. There is a strong bid today, and here you can see why. BLUE has clipped long-term support and bounced nicely off of it for it's...

decaro

Humanigen is due to present major data from Phase III trials at three conferences in mid-March. The stock is in multiple wedges, and a breakout or breakdown seems highly likely. Shares are currently trending sideways --- in my opinion, as investors await the outcomes of these events. When it comes, the move is likely to be explosive. Thus, implied volatility is...

decaro

OSTK fell out of the bed in the Feb 24 market hours (big red candle past ema levels). But it has bounced to 75.12 in the pre-market session of February 25. The stock is in conspicuous blue wedge, and could break up or down in the next several months. In the immediate future, a test of and bounce off of the $66 to $68 region would be quite bullish. Breaking below...

decaro

After a long, sideways consolidation, Amazon is approaching the limit of this wedge. An earlier trend line forms resistance above at around 3700. Play this with April/May expiration options. Open a long $3200/$3400 strangle expiring in May and sell a $3700 strike call expiring in April. The long $3400 call + the short $3700 call itself constitutes a poor man's...

decaro Updated 

Vertical blue dashed lines: dates of escape from wedges Vertical yellow dashed line: latest escape date of present wedge

decaro

BERY sitting at the 200 ema with RSI bottoming out on hedge funds unloading common shares during last week's volatility. Have been long since then with ATM put credit spreads.

decaro Updated 

If there were options for XOM, I would open and long straddle given the likelihood of big future volatility. There aren't, so I'm flipping the coin long on the thesis that the broader US market is in a bull.

decaro

Where is natural gas going into the winter of 2020? This commodity is a box of gerbils. Monthly candles can help to smooth out some of that noise. I wanted to see the presently intact long-term trendiness that have a large number of rejections at the wick, and then compare them to the relevant short-term trendiness.

decaro

Short with targets of $19.6 and $16.3 and $12.2. Declines of 17.6%, 31.5%, and 48.7%.

decaro

Impressive buy and sell signals offered by the RVI since December. High prob of a retest of the 20-day SMA and higher Fib level. High prob of a retest of the lower Fib level before the RVI exceeds 60 again. Short in medium-term. Long in the short-term.

decaro

Log of VIX with short and long moving averages.