dtingbudong

dtingbudong Updated 

Tracking the P/C ration over time, and looking at Tradingview ideas, it seems that sentiment is just too bearish - totally different than it was before most previous crashes - which usually happen on a touch of the lower trend line. I couldn't find a single long SPY idea on TradingView for the past 48 hours. That means a crash this week is highly unlikely (though...

dtingbudong Updated 

This clearly made up scenario is based on a few different qualitative inputs, assumptions, and historical analogues. 1. Rising megaphone since November continuing its pattern and eventually breaking 2. Seasonality: mid year selloff + double top in the fall during end stage bull markets (see 2000, 2007, 2018, Bitcoin in 2013 and 2017) 3. 1919 price action (after...

dtingbudong Updated 

NGA has formed a strong downward channel identified with regression-based trending, and it has formed a hanging man at the top of the downward channel, suggesting an opportune time to short and catch the next leg down.

dtingbudong Updated 

NIO - the Chinese electric automaker - has had quite the run over the past year. However, the double top on January 9 and February 11 accompanied by CMF divergence was a major warning sign. While we have recovered from the lows somewhat, capital inflows are still weak (and trending down), and NIO has failed to recover as much as the S&P 500 since the February...

dtingbudong Updated 

Unfortunately, SPY/Volume data does not go much past the 2000 crash, but that's still 20 years of history with which to work. Chaikin Money Flow and Price diverged prior to every major crash: 1997, 2000, 2007, 2011, 2018, and 2020. There aren't a ton of false signals in the dataset, but some crashes ended up being pretty mild. The extent of the divergence /...

dtingbudong Updated 

This is a possible setup to watch for ARKK. It's interesting that the Chaikin Money Flow indicator clearly signaled the previous top. If/when ARKK recovers to near the 50-day MA, it'll be interesting to see if volume profile is still weak. This isn't an actual trade for now.

dtingbudong Updated 

There are many reasons to favor a CLOV long position here with earnings on March 1, 2021. 1. We have wicked off the same bottoming zone explored last November. This has many characteristics of a capitulation wick after the rapid descent following news of the DOJ investigation. 2. Short interest on this stock is quite high, although reliable up-to-date...

dtingbudong Updated 

After a long downtrend that is starting to look like a bull-flag type pattern, gold has reached a historically important level - which has corresponded with multiple inflection points since 2011 (including March 2020). Gold has a clear negative relationship with 10 year rates - which are also at a key historical inflection point in a sharp rise amid a multi-year...

dtingbudong Updated 

After a successful backtest, Ethereum has made the 3 White Crows Pattern which has confirmed a VFI buy signal. It looks as if Ethereum is attempting to make a new high around 2500 (next fib stop).

dtingbudong

Although BTC just made a new high, the RSI is diverging wildly from the price action which, in the past, has often signaled a major correction.

dtingbudong Updated 

After a successful day for the bulls, RTY has pulled back slightly to retest the fib line in the low 2240s. 2243 is a perfect place to enter a trade given it's very close to a fib stop loss (2241). Combined with bullish action for BTC and Ethereum, the risk reward favors a long here.

dtingbudong Updated 

Sustained VW-MACD crossover has been a decent indicator on when to enter short (or long) positions (but not when to exit them). The failure of the index to make new highs multiple times also suggests that a further selloff is coming. A retracement similar to the June/September 2020 selloffs would target the bottom of the pink box or 3505-3550. The pink box...

dtingbudong Updated 

A clear breakout of a descending wedge targeting the next fib level at 1.28. Let's see if this holds!

dtingbudong Updated 

The correlation between TSLA prices and lithium prices is remarkable (we are using the stock prices of two lithium miners with low diversification as a proxy- so more diversified Albermarle is not included - which is obviously an imperfect proxy). Movements in the price of the largest US-focused lithium miner LTHM explain 79% of the variation in TSLA's price since...

dtingbudong

A historical study seems to suggest that RSI divergence similar to what we have in recent weeks is not typically a reliable marker of long term tops of BTC. Of the 6 major instances of apparent RSI divergence since 2013, 2 were accurate top markers, and neither of those two had a declining volume profile as well, although several of the false signal instances did....

dtingbudong Updated 

We accurately predicted the current correction two weeks ago, but we couldn't have foreseen how anemic it has been! Remember, we can use signals to predict direction, but we can't usually predict depth or length of a direction. Supporting the anemic nature of the correction is VIX-VVIX divergence (Tradingview free isn't letting me show my drawings on the...

dtingbudong Updated 

Since August, VIX has held a flat base around 19.50 which it touched today 2/10/2021. This means a correction in the S&P 500 is likely coming soon - almost guaranteed - and in fact, this is the *quickest* weekly retouched of the base on record, so we may still be in the upward wave in the VIX that began end of January. The rapid continuation of that wave *may*...

dtingbudong

I just wanted to look at the history to see if there was a relatively safe (with stops) cryptocurrency I could short against BTC and earn higher returns than holding BTC alone. Tron, Ethereum Classic, and EOS appear to be the winners, with TRX slightly ahead. Cardano and Ethereum are not good choices. Check out coincheckup.com While the dramatic declines in EOS,...