duckwade

duckwade

In such strong bearish biased period, bulls still manage to inch higher and close at high today, pullback is even shallower than yesterday. Daily chart is clearly bullish. There is still a bearish alternative, but even that will need to see higher near term into 4450~4485 range to complete a gartley first. So clearly bulls are winning, but with past fractal of...

duckwade

ES is boosted by the news that China will boost its economy in the first quarter, and there is progress in the Russia/Ukraine peace talk, it reached morning high around 4239, then slow pullback until Fed announce the 0.25% rate increase just as expected, following by the dot plot confirming there would be 7 rate increases this year. Market then took a quick dump...

duckwade

ES dropped further down last night to make a double bottom around 4130 range. It is a slightly lower low than Mar 8 low and right in the minimum target range of (v) of (5) of (C), so technically that could be finished and we could go higher from here. However, there are a few things that still got me cautious on the bullish side for now. First of all, we rallied...

duckwade

For those of you who followed my daily ideas, you know since last Monday/Tuesday, I have been looking down and expecting a long lasting bottom before Fed meeting. Today market indeed broke Friday's low and also the trendline support, but it did hold that 4138 low printed last week. If bears are following my primary route, then we should hold this trendline support...

duckwade Updated 

Please noted the ES levels mentioned in this idea is all regarding to ES march contract, even if some traders/brokers already switched to June contract. ES reached a higher high above 4325 early Friday morning, but it's triggered by a news "RUSSIA'S PUTIN SAYS THERE ARE CERTAIN POSITIVE SHIFTS IN TALKS WITH UKRAINE" without any detail. Market then did the gap...

duckwade

Today's idea would be a short one, as market indeed pullback to 4200~4250 range today, held that range and went higher into close, but I still have my doubt that market has made the decision for the bullish path yet. One concern is the scale of the pullback, we had a pullback on Tuesday, that retraced over 88.7%, an abc bounce to a bit over 100% extension, then...

duckwade

Well market indeed found a short term bottom yesterday and printed a higher low (4148.25) at yesterday future close, from there, it went straight up for exactly 150 points and reach the high of today at 4298.25. So this fits my c wave projection almost perfectly, but also meet my requirement of 150 points needed to confirm the bottom, where would we will go next?...

duckwade Updated 

I mentioned two possible paths in yesterday's daily idea, and market picked the route that went lower first and rallied 137 points from overnight low to noon high. I had my route yesterday as 4110->4250, market bottomed at 4138, then topped at 4275, about 25~30 points higher above my expectation, I think that's pretty close. There are a few things that catch my...

duckwade

For weeks, I have been expecting market rally toward FED meeting, however, by losing almost 3% today and close at dead low, I think bulls are losing this battle for now. We will have CPI report this Thursday morning and Fed meeting next Wednesday, both add to the uncertainty to the market until it's done, which make it very unlikely for market to go for the...

duckwade

Sunday night, bears finally made a sustained break of 4290~4300 support zone and the trending line support, so triangle is ruled out, we hit 4238.5 which is right in the support range for standard wave (2), and rallied 80+ pts so far, micro structure can be viewed as a 5 wave up, so that could be the wave 1 for push higher. So if we could get an pullback today in...

duckwade

ES rallied higher into open, then started to drop and soon broke the overnight low. It finally found a bottom around 4341, made a clear abc bounce, reclaimed over 61.8% then dropped almost the whole afternoon, made a double bottom 15 minutes before the close. The whole day action fits the typical pattern of reversal day, and the rally since Sunday night is choppy...

duckwade

Yesterday I mentioned two possible paths, and obviously market took the one with more whipsaw, which is pretty common now. So Sunday night drop is (a) of (2), rally till last night is (b) of (2), and the drop today is (c) of (2). Since there is no clear 5 wave down structure, or clear bottoming confirmation, and we did not reach 100% fib extension in this (c)...

duckwade

More Ukraine news during the weekend spooked the market and ES future opened sharply lower for a 130 pts pullback a few minutes after open. I was expecting marketing making lower high then more pullback in today's RTH session. However market once again proved how strong it is, it went to retest Friday high, attempted a false breakout, pulled back about 75 points...

duckwade Updated 

Friday was second day of rally, I was expecting a pullback toward at below 4200, but the market only retraced about 60 points to 4230, then break the overnight high, and go straight up to close at high of 4384.5, since 4350 was breached and market even close above that, my primary count would be that we indeed already reached a bottom on 4101.75. Yes, I understand...

duckwade

Last night came the news that everyone is waiting for: official Russian invasion of Ukraine, market tank immediately and stay around low almost the whole night, and we reached the lower edge of ideal support range of 4100~4150. From the low of 4101.75, market then rallied all the day since regular market open for a wholly 188.25 points, hit 4290 a few minutes...

duckwade Updated 

Yesterday I mentioned minimum target of (C) would be a revisit of Jan low, and today we hit it and even broke it in early evening, but I seriously doubt the drop is over, in fact, we may be in the heart of that if it's targeting 4000 range or lower. Right now seems everyone is waiting for Russian's official invasion, and there might be still some selling once that...

duckwade

Well, until last Thursday, I still believe the big (B) wave was not done and we were going higher to 4640~4680 next to finish it, then down to Jan low for a big (C) wave to complete the whole pullback. However, Friday we broke 4354.5 low made on last Monday, and it was then followed by further break 4300. This confirmed we are already in (C), so it's better to...

duckwade

For bulls, good news is the possibility of 0.50% rate increase in March has significantly reduced last few days. And the bad news are all from Ukraine issue, which I think is a total nonsense, but obviously most market participants take it very seriously. Every a bit of even slightly possible Russian aggression will instantly drop the market. But assuming it cools...