Given recent newsflow I wanted to look into Hang Seng HK equities index - feels like that the zone just below 22,000 is critical long term - a break below would be extremely bearish. Together with the general reliance on what is a rigged real estate market I think it is one of the most fragile indices out there.
Vodafone has kept if dividend unch giving it (for now) a high single digit div yield which is pretty decent in a zero rate world. The range 125-135p is critical for a breakout. Don't expect stellar returns given utility status and African exposure but a possible re-rating of the stock given post covid-19 realities is possible - one to watch.
A great way to play crude recovery is long CRAK - the oil refiner ETF vs short SPY (overall large caps). Refiners have better margins with low oil prices and looking at their margins is a good way to gauge the demand for physical. The ratio has broken 0.7 and I expect to see it at 0.9 or a 30% return as recovery gathers steam.
Lufthansa trading near long term base around 7 to 8 EUR. Expect a short term rebound after bailout is approved (as it will be) followed by a long and difficult recovery. Position small long if & holds. No miracles about to happen in this battered sector but lower competition going forward and higher fares plus lower fuel prices will help a lot.
Crude has been making lower highs consistently since the 2008 crisis. Adding to that we have immediate demand collapse due to the virus but also long term move to renewables and greener sources of energy. The weekly chart has a long term bearish triangle pattern. Expect long term support sub 20 and price oscillations till 2021 within the wedge. Currently neutral...
EURUSD has been trading in relatively tight range - this range will be resolved as dollar direction after this crisis becomes clear. Expect 1.05-1.15 to be neutral with a break sub 1.05 indicating parity if not break sub 1. Trigger will be the situation in Italy and the support (or lack thereof) by the EU.
The all time high on the VIX was reached on October 24, 2008 at 89.53. If you still have firepower and the risk tolerance equity vol is a sweet sell if you can get size bids. It will be bumpy but the theta at these levels will compensate.
The long term outperformance of equities over gold that started after the 2008 crisis lost steam at the end of 2018, an amazing 10 year run. Looking at the SP500 to Gold ratio if we break SPY/GLD sub 2 consistently, we could be looking at a new regime : while the current crisis and ensuing recession play out, gold may outperform equities substantially.