Fib-based trendline, structure, & pattern
What I'll be looking for
1: Small pennant to form nearing the end of this larger pennant similar to what I reference to and draw out.
2: Higher timeframe congruence on RSI 4h-24h (no significant bearish divergence on the way up)
Foreseeable short-term bearish scenario linked below
Compare & contrast 2017's final capitulation to our current capitulation.
1: One last attempt for 33.5k
2: Once it drops from the failed push & the RSI's bottom trendline I've marked is hit, capitulation begins
3: A rounded-recovery instead of a V-recovery would help validate this scenario -- if it makes it that far
4: This may or may not reset the accumulation...
Although the left is on a more clear uptrend than the current, the fractal has a very similar price action amongst other things.
Bitcoin is more than likely early to the proper euphoric bull market cycle, and perhaps this is the fractal that helps illustrate that timeframe
MACD was starting to turn around, but perhaps...
According to the monthly On Balance Volume from '13 through '17, it took 1065 days for it to reach and break higher than 2013's OBV high and 182 days after that to revisit & bounce out of that zone indefinitely. Between '17 and now, we saw the OBV reach 2017's high again at 1065 days, and we've since revisited it and, again, we are breaking 182 days now. This puts...
First - for the more obvious bullish divergences on OBV, RSI, & MFI.
I had a hell of a time trying to find anywhere with a similar divergence
But the places that I did find them had a massive pump following
Additionally, you're probably confused about the TLT chart.
These are 20 yr bonds that fluctuate more or less...
Refer to last idea for description, but unlike last time we broke out of the triangle, we have more bullish data to support a successful retest of it. So... call me crazy, but I don't think we'll visit much lower than the time of this post. Don't take it up with me, take it up with the data.
You can draw lines all day but it's the data underneath the price action you need to uncover. Volatility, price action, and volume look pretty similar across the board between now and successful retests of a upside pennant breakout. The one thing that leaves me questioning the success of this retest is the OBV. On Balance Volume is a cumulative value that adds the...
Following 2017's ATH, capitulation made a similar wedge type that was broken to the topside, then broke the high of the wedge before falling on top of that same wedge before reaching its local demise. I sum this formation we're in at the moment as a M-midtrendline break-W formation. We form an M, where the bottom points start a trendline that we fall beneath and...
From the previous cycle's ATH and ATL following that, drawing a fib up for the next cycle has proven to have 2 fibs that are highly contested - the 1.618 & 1.272
In 2013, the first wave found resistance around the 1.618 , and found support around the 1.272 .
In 2017, the first wave went to the 1.414, found support at the 1.272 , rose to the 1.618 ,...
Figured at some point we'll make another leg down further to 25k or so. Timing has been most difficult. The pennant is closing in. The pennant is starting to droop downwards, which is the sign that it's almost over; however, that often means one more attempt up. We may be looking at one more attempt to break above around 37.5k, but ultimately, I see Bitcoin...
We're seeing a similar structure whip up to the recovery of January's dump and into February's pump. The resistances are the same, the pattern is relatively the same, the data is the same. Just watch the underlying data such as RSI & MFI to care for any discrepencies.
Small TF reversal into ascending M formation where the tail end curls up into a scallop making the bullish ascending scallop pattern. Likely we see the top of this wedge, break out, get rejected by the 40k again, and continue up for a few days after that small correction is over. Time will tell.
Seeing a lot of bearish signs particularly now with the completed H&S.
With the bearish sentiment, the bearish charts, & the obvious H&S spooking everybody into shorting - I expect another flash crash when all those shorts close at the same time.
24k may be conservative considering the above. Depending on the severity of a flash crash, 20k may be a more accurate number.
Zoom in and keep an eye on that red line when we meet it. Rejection from it may result in a strong turn downwards and onto supports given by the January waves. Nothing is over until we drop below any of the support given during January - so don't fret. Every whale on Earth will be buying before that's met.
The last 2 cycles had ATH's in the first week of December; however, the way they got there was very different from each other. According to the halvings that followed each cycle, we reached ATL 546 days and 518 days in the last 2 cycles, and each cycle took 364 and 413 days to reach that ATL from the blowofftop ATH's. That would put our projection for an ATH of...