From not only a fractal's perspective as many of you have seen from comparing price action from 08 & 01 to the present, the Moving Average distance has reached the historically critical levels as well.
The below indicator is MA_dist - measuring the distance price is above & below the set Moving Average (100 daily). The price has stuck its head up above the moving...
btc has reached a zone of volume & is inching towards EMA's that once were deemed as black swan. I think we soon find a rally back up towards 30k before finally succumbing to our destiny of 80-85% drop into the 10-13k region.
May the odds ever be in your favor.
Fun indicator - Distance from the Moving Average (100 Daily)
Price finds a way to get far overextended from moving averages before needing to dial back the momentum.
Right now, the price has deviated far away from the 100 daily Moving Average.
Every single time the distance from the MA reached this level, there was at least a 50% move upwards from that...
Here's a possibility to the downside - a mirrored version of our ATH. Price played around the log 1.618 just like how we're now playing around the nonlog 1.618. One more sweep down to around 24k would also conveniently be the next volume support & fib support.
Something I'm wary of are geopolitical events under the hood. Past capitulations of $btc required that $usoil AND traditional markets to decline. So far, USOIL has not seen a capitulation, and a BTC bottom might not be confirmed until USOIL reverses and finds its bottom.
Macro indicator & misc. targets update:
Current Price: $29,700
RSI 3W: 2.7 points...
A hallmark feature of bearmarket downtreads are bullish divergences on the MACD (2D). The $btc lows and the MACD patterns take similar shapes. This pattern tends to be followed up by a pump. Obviously, what happens afterwards remains to be seen, as 2017's capitulation wasn't over
We've followed major capitulations/reversals before such as April capitulation of 2013, July reversals for 2013 and 2017, September capitulations in 2013 & 2017, reversals in October of 2013 & 2017.
Will the November 9th capitulation be any different? I'm going to say probably not. I expect a 'scam-wick' down to anywhere from 56k to 47k before we finally make a...
Every cycle has a pinpoint hit on the 0.5 fib - which is the halfway point on a log scale. See the red lines.
I've calculated this halfway point to be around 26-27k. We've struck 26.6k on USDT pairs and 25.5k on USD pairs. If this is the bottom, this marks the halfway point, and that means for a top to be at around 205k.
The calculations is based on a previous...
Traditional markets taking a dive since the Fed spooked them with tapering. BTC decided to follow per usual. This idea here is based on my "Holy Grail" where each cycle touches a distinct point exactly in the middle (log based 0.5 fib) which, by definition, points to a 1.0 fib that's much higher (250k). When the market reversed in July, I thought "maybe it was...
MFI: 3 points from floor
RSI: 2 points from floor
S&P Bollinger Bands 1D: Historically leaving these bands meant we were close to the bottom in BTC.
S&P RSI 12D: Historically hitting ~44 meant we were very close if not at the bottom (currently 47.25).
BTC DVDI 6D: We've started getting red candles on the 4D, so we're getting...
Because historically speaking, you're buying close to an absolute bottom. Good luck with your short.
A 25k close is my absolute bottom. Any further beyond that and we're pioneering new ground that BTC has never walked such as a weekly close RSI lower than 28 and the bottoms of the rest of these indicators that you see here.
According to the weekly CMF, we've hit a bottom or very close to bottom on large scale.
Also, note the weekly candles. There have been only a few times in history with 5 consecutive weekly down/red candles. No time in history have we had 6 consecutive, so we at least have those stats on our side for next week.
Chaikin Money Flow ( CMF ) is a technical analysis indicator used to measure Money Flow Volume over a set period of time. Money Flow Volume is a metric used to measure the buying and selling pressure of a security for single period. CMF then sums Money Flow Volume over a user defined look-back period. Any look-back period can be used however the most popular...
I theorize every cycle is more or less the same as structured by the 1.272 & 1.618 retracements. As you can see, every cycle seems to find a zone of accumulation between these two fibs. 2013's lasted 7 months, 2017 lasted 5 months, & so far this cycle has been 15 months. I believe what we're seeing here is merely a longer accumulation due to global economic...
Let's keep it short n sweet. No reason to fluff up the dialogue.
Bitcoin Macro Bottoms are on average a once in a three year event. Bitcoin Price Action tends to have a slight correlation with the bottom of the S&P 500; however, I'm this isn't to talk about the price of the S&P 500 but something that has a higher correlation, and that is the 12D RSI of it.
Choose your fractal: The upside down fractal of Summer 2021 or the bottom of 2018?
Many on-chain metrics have reflected macro-low points like dormancy flow. Other indicators such as the weekly MFI are also indicating that 33k was at or near historic lows.
The 4H OBV is interesting especially when compared to the 29k to 69k run we had last Summer. The...
A September 2021 fractal has very similar characteristics that of our current capitulation based on fibs. If this plays out similarly, we're looking at dropping to 34k-37k for a week or two before making a run up to about 100k.
March was likely the month to play out bearish anyways, so look for a bottoming signal coming in within a couple weeks.