Seeing a lot of bullish divergences showing up. Sell pressure is weakening. On-chain metrix still bullish - it was just an overleverage liquidation event. Maybe we see another hidden bullish divergence event similar to our reversal in July before another takeoff...
4 Charts - 3 Different times we were in similar predicaments.
Scenario 1: following 2017's All Time High, we capitulated and rebounded to the 0.702 retracement and went into a bear market. This is currently sitting at about 54k.
Scenario 2: July we reversed the downtrend , and had a semi-substantial drop in Sept/Oct to as low as the 0.5 fib or the ...
We're going there 😏😏😏
Compare data from Nov-Dec of '20. "BEARISH DIVERGENCE" Please...
There's an equal and opposite reaction to every divergence. We still have more bullish divergence than bearish if you look at the 12H OBV. People are ACCUMULATING big time.
Unique structure and indicator patterns. Haven't been able to find much for backtesting it against prior cycles.
Found similar patterns. One was in a downtrend of 2017, and the other was in an uptrend as seen in this chart. Since we're currently in an uptrend. I would argue that we'll follow suit.
Considering that we've followed 2013 and 2017 July/August...
When we had capitulated in May-July, I was measuring every fractal possibility known to man. One of them had similar characteristics in the price action, fib levels, and indicator patterns. That fractal is the final capitulation of the 2017 cycle. Then I thought... why not compare an alt-coin like LINK back to that time as well... and you get something kinda...
Comparable to every other cycle, but more precisely last August into September.
Many DEFI coins have been far oversold relative to the rest of the market recently
This gives them room to run if BTC decides to follow a similar price action leading into September .
I say last chance - but this is obviously relative to the part of the bigger cycle that we're...
I wanted to make a video version on how I came to this conclusion as I don't have much time on my hands.
Everything that happens between the range is noise, and until we definitively exit above or below it, I have no trajectory to offer within.
I'm no expert in bull/bear flags, but I have looked into whether this bullmarket is over or not...which it definitely is not... which made me think after drawing some lines in the sand...
is this not just a disgustingly big bull flag?
Let me know your thoughts.
Fib-based trendline, structure, & pattern
What I'll be looking for
1: Small pennant to form nearing the end of this larger pennant similar to what I reference to and draw out.
2: Higher timeframe congruence on RSI 4h-24h (no significant bearish divergence on the way up)
Foreseeable short-term bearish scenario linked below
Compare & contrast 2017's final capitulation to our current capitulation.
1: One last attempt for 33.5k
2: Once it drops from the failed push & the RSI's bottom trendline I've marked is hit, capitulation begins
3: A rounded-recovery instead of a V-recovery would help validate this scenario -- if it makes it that far
4: This may or may not reset the accumulation...
Although the left is on a more clear uptrend than the current, the fractal has a very similar price action amongst other things.
Bitcoin is more than likely early to the proper euphoric bull market cycle, and perhaps this is the fractal that helps illustrate that timeframe
MACD was starting to turn around, but perhaps...
According to the monthly On Balance Volume from '13 through '17, it took 1065 days for it to reach and break higher than 2013's OBV high and 182 days after that to revisit & bounce out of that zone indefinitely. Between '17 and now, we saw the OBV reach 2017's high again at 1065 days, and we've since revisited it and, again, we are breaking 182 days now. This puts...
First - for the more obvious bullish divergences on OBV, RSI, & MFI.
I had a hell of a time trying to find anywhere with a similar divergence
But the places that I did find them had a massive pump following
Additionally, you're probably confused about the TLT chart.
These are 20 yr bonds that fluctuate more or less...
Refer to last idea for description, but unlike last time we broke out of the triangle, we have more bullish data to support a successful retest of it. So... call me crazy, but I don't think we'll visit much lower than the time of this post. Don't take it up with me, take it up with the data.