ewave88

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About me Trading and managing a team of very experienced discretionary FX traders within a private company. Formerly a spot FX trader with major global banks. My views are meant for position taking trades over a period of a few days, even a few weeks.
Joined Singapore
Markets Allocation
100 % forex
Top Mentioned Symbols
FX:USDJPY 45% | 5 FX_IDC:USDJPY 27% | 3 EURUSD 18% | 2 GBPUSD 9% | 1
ewave88 ewave88 USDJPY, 15, Long ,
USDJPY: Short term potential 3rd of 3rd wave rally to 111.00
71 1 2
USDJPY, 15 Long
Short term potential 3rd of 3rd wave rally to 111.00

In my last posting on USDJPY a few days ago, I had counted that 105.55 could be the end of the major correction from 125.70. If true, then 105.55 would be a major bottom from which a big, long term rally would begin. The price action and chart pattern after 105.55 have been supportive of my wave count. This is especially so last Friday, when USDJPY only dip to ...

ewave88 ewave88 EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: EURUSD top established at 1.1615 for down move to 1.0750
142 0 4
EURUSD, D Short
EURUSD top established at 1.1615 for down move to 1.0750

I have always viewed that EURUSD is trading a big triangular range between 1.0500-1.1700, which consists of waves(A)(B)(C)(D)(E). This view is still valid. In my previous post a couple of weeks ago, I had prematurely labelled the high at 1.1465 as wave(C) and turned bearish when it started to weaken. I was wrong. As it turned out, it did another up move to ...

ewave88 ewave88 GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: Short GBPUSD for a fall below 1.3800
35 0 2
GBPUSD, D Short
Short GBPUSD for a fall below 1.3800

I am counting GBPUSD as a wave(5) down move from wave(4) at 1.5500. Within this wave(5), it consists of waves<1><2><3><4><5>. So far, the low of 1.3830 was wave<3>. The rally to 1.4770 was wave<4>. This wave<4> rebound was very nice as it traced out a very clear waves-a-b-c pattern. Also, there was a very bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern on the day ...

ewave88 ewave88 USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: 105.55 could be the real major low in USDJPY already
79 0 2
USDJPY, D Long
105.55 could be the real major low in USDJPY already

In my last posting, when USDJPY was around 111.50, I had assumed that 107.60 was already the major wave(4) bottom from which the big wave(5) rally started. But I was wrong! The break below 107.60 negated that wave count. Indeed, that down move was very sharp. My current preferred count is that 107.60 was only wave-iii and 111.90 was only wave-iv of wave<5>. This ...

ewave88 ewave88 USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY has bottomed at 107.60 for the long term
59 0 2
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY has bottomed at 107.60 for the long term

Please refer to my last few postings on USDJPY to get an idea where I am coming from. Before this week, I had regarded the short term rally from 107.60 as just a technical rebound before one more final fall to the long term target/support at 107.00-30. But this current sharp rally on Friday (22 April), resulting in very bullish Daily and Weekly bars, tells me ...

ewave88 ewave88 USDJPY, 60,
USDJPY: USDJPY doing corrective rebound before final fall
76 0 2
USDJPY, 60
USDJPY doing corrective rebound before final fall

After hitting the low of 107.63, it has consolidated upwards to a high of 109.70 and is now in between. I believe 107.63 was a wave<3> low, and it is now doing a wave<4> correction which can come in a variety of wave counts and patterns. Currently, my preferred count is this wave<4> comes in the form of waves, of which 109.70 was wave and a sharp fall to 107.80 ...

ewave88 ewave88 EURUSD, 120, Short ,
EURUSD: EURUSD is bearish to 1.0750 over the next 3 months
63 0 4
EURUSD, 120 Short
EURUSD is bearish to 1.0750 over the next 3 months

My reading of the Daily chart tells me that since the low of 1.0460 in March 2015, EURUSD has been tracing out a large contracting triangle pattern with 5 corrective waves (or legs) waves(A)(B)(C)(D)(E). It has done wave(A) up to 1.1720, wave(B) down to 1.0515. I believe wave(C) up has finished at 1.1465 recently. If correct, then it is now on wave(D), which ...

ewave88 ewave88 USDJPY, 60,
USDJPY: USDJPY Hourly Chart view
116 0 2
USDJPY, 60
USDJPY Hourly Chart view

This is a continuation of my USDJPY analysis which I posted here on 10 Apr 2016. Readers should read the 3 charts I posted on 10 Apr 2016, to better understand and ensure the consistency of my analysis. Last week, I had made a long term call for an imminent major bottom in USDJPY at the 107.00-107.30 level. I had expected it could be achieved as soon as last ...

ewave88 ewave88 USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY may bottom soon in Apr 2016
133 0 2
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY may bottom soon in Apr 2016

This third chart shows more details of the wave structure of wave(4) from the June 2015 wave(3) peak of 125.80 down. Based on the price movements, there can be a variety of ways to label the waves. I have chosen the wave counts as shown to be my most preferred count. Essentially, from 125.80, there was wave(A) to 116.00, wave(B) rebound to 121.60 from which ...

ewave88 ewave88 USDJPY, W, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY bottom this year could be at 107.00-30 level
39 0 1
USDJPY, W Long
USDJPY bottom this year could be at 107.00-30 level

This second chart of USDJPY shows its movements from 2012 to 2016 so far. A basic tenet of technical analysis is that "history repeats itself". My hypothesis is that USDJPY moves in 2012-2016 are similar to its moves in 1995-1997. The current down move in USDJPY will end at around 107.00-30, from which it shall reverse up strongly in coming months to well above ...

ewave88 ewave88 USDJPY, W, Long ,
USDJPY: A strong buy in USDJPY at 107.00-30
33 0 2
USDJPY, W Long
A strong buy in USDJPY at 107.00-30

Since peaking at 125.80 in June 2015, USDJPY has fallen to a low of 107.70 last week. The fall accelerated upon the break of the key psychological level of 110.00. Many traders (and maybe central bank officials too) are asking "where could be the bottom for USDJPY this round?" This is the first of 3 charts which I use to support my call for a major bottom in ...

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