The current corrective rally has to end at a 5 wave fashion. The NFP shock reshape the wave iv. We now have a refreshed wave iv low and another push higher is tempting, All the weak short has to be washed out. The trickier the market is, the sharper the incoming decline will be.
Just exit long, The price action is not supporting a (c) wave rally. (b) wave is always tricky. I will stand on the sideline for now. Enter long again in between "a wave" and "(v) wave". The best trade is still wait for the correction to complete around and above (iv) wave high at 79.12 and then short.
I see a big wash out/ short squeeze coming ahead of important Fib retracement and event risk.
Watch the EURUSD USDJPY very carefully.
Also there is going to be a wash out in equity market at the same time.
The B wave is always tricky. Here is my two count for the equity market. BLACK is the main count which indicates that the wave B had finished. The red color is the alternate count which hint a minor higher high before sharply turning lower. GOOD LUCK trading.
One big up day followed by a big down day. The trading of the past two days almost completely ruled out the possibility of a near term new high for equity. The opportunity of shorting the market is better at Nasdaq IMO. AAPL is going to $80. Health care sector is also turning very bearish. The Nasdaq index is overall much weaker than the S&P. And it is in a...
The epic comeback since Feb 11 had given us a impulsive structure that could lead to a longer term rally. The Feb 11 low is also a good candidate of a long term 4th wave pivot.
Near term the rally has stalled and so much uncertainty like brext vote could trigger a broad range risk off sentiment.
S&P is likely trading higher from here but a much sharper decline...
This is a decade chart of EURCAD. the clean triangle and the price action of the past few month is encouraging a long term bearish view on the pair. The ongoing risk off environment could give us a beautiful entry point. Time wise, I am looking for the upward correction to end around Brexit vote on Jun 23.
Level wise, the pair is very short-able above 1.50 handle.
This is my primary count of EURUSD, even though there is much more uncertainty going forward. The low we made this week is a tradable low despite the big event risk going forward. Technical always leads fundamental.
The equity has been rallying hard globally. However, the big name in the US equity market has been lagging behind. To name a few: AAPL, FB, AMZN,NFLX, and a lot of biotechs. We will not have a full scale risk on until these big name finish their correction. The tide could be turning very soon.
Equity had likely bottomed. I am trying to pick up the audjpy long somewhere. So I am watching all the related ticker.
AUDUSD is in a C wave correction and this C wave should take long to finish. Let us wait and see.