1290 for XAU seems to be a the inflexion point. Whichever way the it breaks from this triangle pattern will determine the longer term trend. Frankly speaking I didn't think XAU was going to break upwards after the crash mid last year.
With the news that Turkish government selling Gold to prop up the TRY, i see gold fall all the way to 1170. Had such high hopes for gold this year, but now i see it go all the way down below 1100 by end of year.
Sigh! I jumped the gun and expected Gold to go up from 1240. Lost a bit of money and now I see price fall all the way to 1200, which is a psychological barrier. But overall, the 3 year V-shaped recovery is broken, and price will continue to decline in the long term. May be we will see 1000 level by next year.
Now that Gold has negotiated the low of 1240 and bounced off it, my view is that there is strong resistance at 1295-1300 level. Once 1300 is crossed, it will again come back to test it as support. All this will playout somewhere between now and September.
My view is gold will hit 1240 and then it'll be a crucial make or break situation. If Gold breaks that level then it'll be a long time before it comes back up again.