Bearish spinning top, price coming back for a retest - i waited to short it and now it seems like we might get a chance so im publishing this idea. Since this is going to be a fairly crowded trade the goal is to get a short anywhere in between 12800-13300 range and not get stopped on a wick. Target is definitely sub 9k, but taking some off at 10k bounce area is...
Taking any directional position now is almost flipping a coin. 4k -> 4.1k = no mans land for me. I will short the attempt to get above 4.1 and create a higher high. I dont believe we are done and that we will see 4.4 -> 5.1 numbers that soon.
On a positive side you get to long the retest/breakout w/e suits you and ride it pretty high.
If you think about longing 4k again pplease dont. Market structure literally stayed the same. AS long as corn below 4200 it is bearish on any high time frame.
I will short this retest and if we dump i will hold till 3500 at least. If it closes above - you get your bull run, as after 4200 you can easily climb back to above 5k on all the euphoria you will get.
looks exactly like btc and 6k unbreachable support. Bounced many many times, always lower and lower. Im ready for big expansion to the downside.
Invalidation only if it gets pumped hard. any slow grind back to to the previous will get sold into. Doesnt help the fact that there are H&S pattern on btc and usd pairings. Could really be the toppy omega top.
Not taking this one since i have a very appealing bullish scenario (linked).
Thing is, my short strategy doesnt work in bullish environment on higher timeframes, so if this one is wrong i will be even more sure in my bullish scenario. BUT if this one plays out it will confirm that we are still in the bear market and new lows are coming. Would be real sad tho.
Taking this trade only because i see a fractal with a 5 day consolidation and we are at day 4 of it . If i dont see a big up move in 1-2 days i will cut /re-evaluate idea and update it here.
Bearish scenario have a worse realistic r/r