Once again PBR has gone up way too far and too early. Despite REAL record apreciation this year the company still has more than US$100B of net debt and its main product ( Oil Brent ) is devaluing more and more.
OBV not following prices. Very unlikey INDEX:SPX makes a new ATH (All Time High), but even if this happens it should be unsustainable at this volume levels. A correction is the most likely scenario for the next 2-4 weeks.
This study show the possibility ( ceteris paribus ) of BMFBOVESPA:PETR4 loosing another 8.5% (going to R$7.53 level) in the next 16 days based in historical correlation with VALE5 in a one year time-frame. I'll play this doing a Long (VALE5) & Short (PETR4) and buying PETR4 puts.
BBAS3 (Banco do Brasil) releases earnings this Thursday. As happened with other Brazilian banks they must trigger sells (ex: ITUB4, BBDC4). Being a state owned bank must intensify plunge.
I should start to buy a put spread (between 18.50 and 17.50) today to take advantage of this movement.
If VALE fails to closes above the R$16.10 mark than it will start a major correction targeting R$12.00.
I´ll buy a PUT Spread at the end of the day(+VALEQ62/-VALEQ60) if it fails to close this mark till 3h30PM.
Today VALE5 will report their first quarter production. The market expects a record break, but this is already in the price, as may be seen in the chart.