flavio.arruda

PRO
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About me Computer Scientist and Trader.
Joined São Paulo, Brazil fregis77
"If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break"
Markets Allocation
50 % stocks 25 % commodities 25 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
CL1! 25% | 3 VALE 16% | 2 CPFE 8% | 1 PETR 8% | 1
flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO ABCB4, D, Long ,
ABCB4: Long ABCB4
17 1 3
ABCB4, D Long
Long ABCB4

Pretty favorable P/L ratio for a risky volatility breakout swing trade.Long up R$14.17, Stop Loss at R$13.43.

flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO CSMG3, D, Long ,
CSMG3: Idea: Long CSMG3 - Breakout strategy
29 0 3
CSMG3, D Long
Idea: Long CSMG3 - Breakout strategy

Idea for this week: BMFBOVESPA:CSMG3

flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Shorting PBR/PETR4
64 0 1
CL1!, D Short
Shorting PBR/PETR4

Once again PBR has gone up way too far and too early. Despite REAL record apreciation this year the company still has more than US$100B of net debt and its main product (Oil Brent) is devaluing more and more.

flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO BBDC4/ITUB4, D,
BBDC4/ITUB4: Long and Short Idea: BBDC4 x ITUB4
47 0 2
BBDC4/ITUB4, D
Long and Short Idea: BBDC4 x ITUB4

Long ITUB4 (NYSE:ITUB) Short BBDC4 (NYSE:BBD)

flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO SPX500, D, Short ,
SPX500: Bearish divergence in S&P500
137 3 3
SPX500, D Short
Bearish divergence in S&P500

OBV not following prices. Very unlikey INDEX:SPX makes a new ATH (All Time High), but even if this happens it should be unsustainable at this volume levels. A correction is the most likely scenario for the next 2-4 weeks.

flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO CPFE3, W, Long ,
CPFE3: Long CPFL
19 0 2
CPFE3, W Long
Long CPFL

Trading Idea for tomorrow. Long BMFBOVESPA:CPFE3 with great P/L ratio. CPFE3 is lagging other Brazilian utilities sector stocks.

flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO VALE5/PETR4, D, Short ,
VALE5/PETR4: Study: VALE5 x PETR4
75 0 3
VALE5/PETR4, D Short
Study: VALE5 x PETR4

This study show the possibility (ceteris paribus) of BMFBOVESPA:PETR4 loosing another 8.5% (going to R$7.53 level) in the next 16 days based in historical correlation with VALE5 in a one year time-frame. I'll play this doing a Long (VALE5) & Short (PETR4) and buying PETR4 puts.

flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Divergences
136 5 3
CL1!, D Short
Divergences

Divergence between CL1! , INDEX:XOI and NYSE:PBR. Very bearish for PBR, PBR.A, PETR4. Long (XOI) & Short (PBR) may be interesting.

flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO BBAS3, D, Short ,
BBAS3: BEARISH BBAS3
35 0 3
BBAS3, D Short
BEARISH BBAS3

BBAS3 (Banco do Brasil) releases earnings this Thursday. As happened with other Brazilian banks they must trigger sells (ex: ITUB4, BBDC4). Being a state owned bank must intensify plunge. I should start to buy a put spread (between 18.50 and 17.50) today to take advantage of this movement.

flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Short CL1!
86 0 4
CL1!, D Short
Short CL1!

Shorting NYMEX:CL1! with great risk/return ratio. For day-trade or 2 days trade only, medium term oil price still undefined.

flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO PETR4, 30, Short ,
PETR4: Trade idea for 04/25 - 04/26 - Short PETR4
16 0 2
PETR4, 30 Short
Trade idea for 04/25 - 04/26 - Short PETR4

If NYMEX:CL1! opens neutral or bearish monday morning I´ll buy BMFBOVESPA:PETR4 PUTS (PETRQ90) aiming a two days correction for PETR4.

flavio.arruda flavio.arruda PRO VALE5, D, Short ,
VALE5: Today's closing will be definitive for VALE5
50 0 3
VALE5, D Short
Today's closing will be definitive for VALE5

If VALE fails to closes above the R$16.10 mark than it will start a major correction targeting R$12.00. I´ll buy a PUT Spread at the end of the day(+VALEQ62/-VALEQ60) if it fails to close this mark till 3h30PM. Today VALE5 will report their first quarter production. The market expects a record break, but this is already in the price, as may be seen in the chart.

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TR1!
IRON ORE 62% FE, CFR NORTH CHINA (PLATTS) FUTURES
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WINM2016
IBOVESPA INDEX FUTURES
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BHP
BHP BILLITON LTD
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CSNA3
CIA SIDERURGICA NC
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IBOV
IBOVESPA
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PBR.A
PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA PETROBR
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VALE5
VALE S.A.
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