About meCommerce Postgraduate 15 years ago and now Transport Professional. Recently got into Technical Analysis reading Frost & Prechter, Gorman & Kennedy and others. Now a big believer in Elliot Wave.
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I recently heard a quote about gold along the lines of; if you are concerned by dips in price of gold, you don't really understand gold.
I take that to mean; if the dips in the price of a rare and limited commodity with strong and lasting demand are able to panic you into selling - then you don't really understand the benefit of owning it in...
Just a quick post to share my small position my expectation that there is still more downside short-term.
Medium term I expect prices to drop steeply (similar to late last year) as oversupply and slowing growth / demand seem to be overarching themes. I expect something around the sub-$35 mark. Quite key to this is the seeming inability of OPEC cuts...
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This is my general expectation for crude based off EW.
The red box is an area of strong resistance at around $66 - 63. The blue box is where I hope to close out my short.
Yes, I am aware that there are a low of factors in the background that could change this view in a hurry.
- Bear in mind that last two weeks ago news was saying that...
Just to share some thoughts.
The World Platinum Investment Council has reduced its surplus supply forecast by close to 50% for 2019 due to investment demand. Bear in mind that it is still in surplus, so I don't imagine that the bottom is in yet.
Platinum outperforms gold in good times and bad. Since 2003 Platinum significantly out-performed gold...
Thanks for viewing. For some this may be helpful, for others a mish-mash of doubtful technical analysis. Sometimes I hit that nail right on the head (of course not every time - the BTC / ETH bull-run exceeded my expectations so far by a significant margin).
Short-term I expect a slight consolidation to not below 258, a bounce to around $270 followed by a...
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This is a combined post (slash essay);
1. Trading the valuation oscillation between silver and gold for profit / accumulation, and
2. Possible signs of resistance on gold stretching its relative valuation on silver.
Some of it will probably mirror well-established strategies, re-state some more obvious aspects, but hopefully, may be...
Where we are right now:
1, Historically over-valued equity markets (average PE in excess of 30 in the SPX) / low dividend returns on equity (dividend yields approaching the return rate on Treasuries),
2. Volatility high and increasing (i.e. investors 2-4%pa dividend payouts can be wiped out in a day or two of bearish sentiment),
3. The market hasn't made...
From the swing low to the current price is up almost 500% in a few months, seems like a correction would be a reasonable expectation.
Other reasons pointing towards a correction:
- Ending fifth wave diagonal forming,
- higher highs are translated into lower highs on the RSI (the RSI is just a momentum indicator) to show bearish divergence,
- My rough EW count...
This is just an update.
Since my last post USDCAD has set a higher high and this made a second touch on the declining RSI trend-line. Coupled with the big rejection (wick to the upside) this further confirms my bearish expectation for USDCAD.
On the 15 minute timescale, I count a small 5 wave downward correction from the high set yesterday. A good entry point...
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BTC has been on a massive run. I took part in a small part of it, but sold waaay too early. Oh well.
So instead I have been watching for bearish signals. Despite recent bullishness, the bear market cannot yet be said to be over just yet. If you see my previous posts about ETH and BTC on how to confirm the end of the bear market, 2 out...
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There is a moderate bearish RSI divergence evident on the USD CAD daily. Now, the RSI is a momentum indicator, and momentum has clearly reduced of late. This is seemingly no impediment to USDCAD seeking a higher high. Steep drop, slow rise to exceed the swing high has been how things have been playing out for a while.
Some points against...
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I am not presently able to trade Copper, but it remains of interest for a few reasons. One is that the majority of silver (56%+) is produced as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mines, so reductions in the price of those industrial metals may point to a slowing of production of silver. I am not sure of the numbers for gold, but at...
Boeing still has around -9% to go. It might be worth a trade.
I am just watching. Not because I don't expect the price to follow my expectations - for other reasons.
However, Boeing is a significant proportion of the Dow (11.26% of the Dow: qz.com). If you are watching the Dow, you...
I just thought I would share this trade entered over the past 2 days. I'm not quite sure show it will turn out just yet.
Despite OPEC signalling it will reduce output and international sanctions reducing supply, the chart said down so I entered short. I just wanted to share some thoughts on expectations. Black is the primary (more pessimistic count) and blue...
That's all it is at this stage. I am not looking to buy the Nikkei index, but a number of interesting individual stocks mirror this wider theme. Sort of a lower swing high being set and "one more drop" to set a higher low then off we go sort of thing. Let's see.
Short to short-mid bearish, medium term to long term bullish.
Short term - short (but not in a position so just waiting),
Medium + LT term long.
Why? Well a couple of reasons. Despite the retraction in sales and profits in the construction industry in Japan as evident from Ueki's results there are some rather signs of value.
I haven't even started a full accounting of undervalued Japanese stocks yet but can see that I will...