About meCommerce Postgraduate 15 years ago and now Transport Professional. Recently got into Technical Analysis reading Frost & Prechter, Gorman & Kennedy and others. Now a big believer in Elliot Wave.
Where we are right now:
1, Historically over-valued equity markets (average PE in excess of 30 in the SPX) / low dividend returns on equity (dividend yields approaching the return rate on Treasuries),
2. Volatility high and increasing (i.e. investors 2-4%pa dividend payouts can be wiped out in a day or two of bearish sentiment),
3. The market hasn't made...
From the swing low to the current price is up almost 500% in a few months, seems like a correction would be a reasonable expectation.
Other reasons pointing towards a correction:
- Ending fifth wave diagonal forming,
- higher highs are translated into lower highs on the RSI (the RSI is just a momentum indicator) to show bearish divergence,
- My rough EW count...
This is just an update.
Since my last post USDCAD has set a higher high and this made a second touch on the declining RSI trend-line. Coupled with the big rejection (wick to the upside) this further confirms my bearish expectation for USDCAD.
On the 15 minute timescale, I count a small 5 wave downward correction from the high set yesterday. A good entry point...
Hi all, thanks for viewing.
BTC has been on a massive run. I took part in a small part of it, but sold waaay too early. Oh well.
So instead I have been watching for bearish signals. Despite recent bullishness, the bear market cannot yet be said to be over just yet. If you see my previous posts about ETH and BTC on how to confirm the end of the bear market, 2 out...
Thanks for viewing.
There is a moderate bearish RSI divergence evident on the USD CAD daily. Now, the RSI is a momentum indicator, and momentum has clearly reduced of late. This is seemingly no impediment to USDCAD seeking a higher high. Steep drop, slow rise to exceed the swing high has been how things have been playing out for a while.
Some points against...
Hi, thanks for viewing.
I am not presently able to trade Copper, but it remains of interest for a few reasons. One is that the majority of silver (56%+) is produced as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mines, so reductions in the price of those industrial metals may point to a slowing of production of silver. I am not sure of the numbers for gold, but at...
Boeing still has around -9% to go. It might be worth a trade.
I am just watching. Not because I don't expect the price to follow my expectations - for other reasons.
However, Boeing is a significant proportion of the Dow (11.26% of the Dow: qz.com). If you are watching the Dow, you...
I just thought I would share this trade entered over the past 2 days. I'm not quite sure show it will turn out just yet.
Despite OPEC signalling it will reduce output and international sanctions reducing supply, the chart said down so I entered short. I just wanted to share some thoughts on expectations. Black is the primary (more pessimistic count) and blue...
That's all it is at this stage. I am not looking to buy the Nikkei index, but a number of interesting individual stocks mirror this wider theme. Sort of a lower swing high being set and "one more drop" to set a higher low then off we go sort of thing. Let's see.
Short to short-mid bearish, medium term to long term bullish.
Short term - short (but not in a position so just waiting),
Medium + LT term long.
Why? Well a couple of reasons. Despite the retraction in sales and profits in the construction industry in Japan as evident from Ueki's results there are some rather signs of value.
I haven't even started a full accounting of undervalued Japanese stocks yet but can see that I will...
While 3.76% dividend yield isn't very high it is better than voluntarily forfeiting your money to the Japanese government in the form of negative bond yields (I apologise for my apparent lack of civic duty).
Still, I expect a bit of a retrace before heading higher. This is 100% based on the chart and 0% based on fundamentals, although, I may be looking into the...
This is just to track my purchase of AUD today. I expect it to appreciate vs the EUR and USD over the coming months;
Australia is significantly exposed to commodity prices, which as showing signs of recovery, and
Australia has government debt at lower levels than most of the rest of the OECD (I have seen % levels ranging fro 40.5 to 66% - depending on the source)...
Just a quick post to say:
- I have been watching diversified commodity indexes recently as they provide meaningful diversification in any portfolio (generally a small % allocation is recommended) .
- Over the past 9 years (as you can see) this has been in a strong and long-lived bear market. The bottom must be somewhere, below $13 is a good candidate...
This post is for me primarily. Here is a relatively undervalued equity paying 4% dividends and a PE of 5. Just another stock that I have decided to chart in my search for undervalued Japanese stocks.
If you think US, EU etc treasury bond yields are low try a negative yield in Japan. A 10 year bond returns -0.05% (yes negative) and a 2 year -0.156 as at...
I was just searching for low PE / oversold Japanese stocks. I am interested to see if this plays out, as it will be much better value sub 750 and well worth a look.
Short to medium term short and medium term long. If you can snag some shares around 600 yen each and it retraces only 38% of the previous deep drop (2004 - 2010) - the you could go 5x easily....
Just a quick one to share my wave count and swing strategy.
If we drop to sub $1100 levels I will be a buyer and if we break above the blue line I will also be a buyer. Spoiler alert, I am also a regular (physical) buyer at levels in between - but will also enter a trade at these levels. Let's see what happens. The market will decide.