flyinkiwi10

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing. It seems we are still in the primary wave 4 correction as there has just been a significant impulse wave failure. Wave 3 exceeded a 1:1 extension of wave (i) up and wave 3 met all its internal targets, however, the recent correction was not stopped before entering well into the wave (i) territory. This indicates that further correction is...

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Hi, I was a little quick to call sub-$5300 previously. We are not in an impulse wave up. In my view we are near the end of wave C of an ABC correction up. Wave C will end possibly in the $6900 to $7100 range due to heavy selling resistance at the 0.618 fib retracement level of the previous move. The last 3 waves up have ended at or short of the 0.618 fib level...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Hi all, This is publish mainly to link to an analysis on the S&P 500 (published 2nd September and updated today), using the Shiller PE Ratio, that indicates over-valuation of the equities market, as well as pointing towards a possible correction. Increasing volatility from U.S. equities that are less able to provide investors competitive dividends, leading...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Hi everyone, These targets aren't based on any nefarious motives - just on the price action. S1 is based on the B correction having already completed just short of the 0.5fib and is a 1:1 extension of the previous steep move (wave A). S2 is based on the B correction being a little over half-way through and the correction reaching the 0.618 fib retracement...

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Hi everyone, Just a brief post to show where I entered a short position (red boxes), where I will add to it, and where I will close it (if everything goes to plan). One thing I think people who hold a bullish perspective must admit is that right now the price is facing a lot of resistance to rising. This is why after entering in the first red box at the 0.618 fib...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Hello all, thanks for viewing. This is to update my 2nd of September post, written after re-reading William Poundstone's "How to Predict the Unpredictable." I thought I would chart the Shiller PE ratio on the S&P 500. I did this because I have general feeling is that things are a little over-extended. In his book, Poundstone points out that in the past 130...

flyinkiwi10

Just to update my previous post a few months ago. Scenario 1: We have seen 5 waves already and are now in a wave B triangle with another 5 waves down to come. Target S1 for -17% Support: The triangle is clearly corrective, within the triangle waves A and B have almost completed, with wave C to come. If this scenario is in play I would look to enter a short...

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Bitfinex short approaching their all time high so I am not alone in my reading of the situation. But bear in mind that the herd isn't always right. In this case, I think they are right though. Wave (c) of the correction is showing some good strength. We might make the $6450 to $6600 for wave 5. A double top would be quite telling. After that I am expecting a...

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DGB has been one of the more bullish coins over the past couple of months. While BTC has formed a descending triangle since February, DGB has formed a series of higher lows. When DGB is bullish, it outperforms most coins. It is not unreasonable to expect DGB to at least make the upper trend-line due to: - DGB support has held strong, - Consistently remaining...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing everyone. I posted recently that if $7000+ was reached, that would be the peak of wave (3). As long as the retracement that follows doesn't go below the wave (1) peak then we are still on for $7486+ (the projected wave (5) extreme). $7492+ will just establish that BTC still has some life in it, but it won't take it past / far past the downward...

flyinkiwi10

When I drew the converging trend-lines XLM looked like it was still trying to break out the top. Even though I noted the rejections, things still looked okay. I got distracted for a while watching the "DUMP EET" candle on BTC. Now, not so much, unfortunately. Lets see how this develops. I am still bullish on XLM.

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing. I count 5 small waves up in wave b from 94.43 to 95.74 (of (b) (of B)). My view and we are now about half-way through an upward correction (wave (B) that is part of a larger ABC correction down. I will be watching for the end of wave (B) to not exceed 103.82. If that occurs I will expect wave (C) to the mid-80s. If 103.82 isn't exceeded and...

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This is drawn from Thomas Bulkowski's 'Trading Classic Chart Patterns' - in which he is himself drawing on Victor Sperandeo's 1991 book 'Trader Vic - Methods of a Wall Street Master.' Personally, I am not waiting for confirmation that we are out of the bear market but it will be worth recognising what phase of the market we are in. If we get a confirmation of a...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing. I only have a couple of points to make; 1, This is the path that I have been expecting BTC to take in recent weeks, 2, Is this a signal that the bear market is over? I didn't expect Doge to lead the charge, and I am not making a judgement as to whether it is over or not. I am feeling more comfortable with my short-term targets for BTC of...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Hello all, thanks for viewing. After re-reading William Poundstone's "How to Predict the Unpredictable" I thought I would chart the Shiller PE ratio on the S&P 500. I did this because I have general feeling is that things are a little over-extended. In his book, he points out that in the past 130 years, if people in the US stockmarket had sold their stocks (and...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

The green box is a very small (0.3% range) and specific target. The target should be larger but I would like to track how accurate ends up being - provided I haven't called the end of wave B too early. The green box sits on top of the confluent area of a 1:1 extension of wave (a) and the 0.5 retracement level of wave 3. I don't want to think about BTC going too...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Hi all, Silver is at an interesting point right now. I am waiting for a set-sup to go long on it due to: - The five waves down have completed, - RSI is at very low levels (and showing a small bounce. There is some reason to be cautious: - This may be wave A of a larger ABC correction down, - Silver declined 9% after breaking the lower trend-line but I expected...

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I am continuing with my stubborn belief that gold is around half way into a deep retrace to pre-run-up levels. If the 2016 to present (rather weak) rally fails I think we will see prices possibly sub $600 in 2 - 4 years time. By my count we are in wave (4) of a larger down-move. Triangles normally form before the final move in the larger degree wave (so wave 4,...