fredcast80

fredcast80

🧠 Overview As global tensions escalate and risk sentiment deteriorates, it’s worth revisiting how major asset classes behaved during past war scenarios. The Gulf War (July 1990 – March 1991) offers a clean case study with distinct phases of market psychology. 📊 What This Chart Shows A synchronized visual comparison of: Gold – Classic safe haven behavior S&P 500 –...

fredcast80

Put Credit Spread Aug 140/130 | Entry: -1.81 | POP 76% 🚀 Technical & Macro Context: Raytheon Technologies (RTX) is surging amid escalating geopolitical tensions (Iran–Israel conflict) and renewed strength in defense sector fundamentals. The stock has broken multiple resistance levels and is now trading in a parabolic move within a widening bullish channel. 📌...

fredcast80

📌 VIX Vertical Call Spread – Aug 19, 2025 (18/25) Executed on June 13, 2025 Volatility has compressed near multi-month lows, but the chart shows two major spikes above 45 in less than a year — triggered by macro shocks (Fed surprises, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, geopolitical escalations like Israel–Iran). I’m positioning with a long call spread on the VIX...

fredcast80

ADBE has printed a surprisingly consistent technical pattern since 2023: A rejection from supply, followed by a gap-down, then a gradual but deep decline. We may now be witnessing the early stage of a fourth repeat. 📘 Historical Pattern Zone 1: ~$575 • Gap: –5.71% • Drop after gap: –12.11% • Duration: 49 days Zone 2: ~$551 • Gap: –8.85% • Drop after gap:...

fredcast80

IBM has rallied strongly within a clear ascending channel since late 2023, pushing recently into all-time highs and testing the upper boundary of the structure. This level has acted as resistance multiple times in the past — and we may now be approaching another potential rejection zone. 🔍 Key Technical Context: ✅ Price trading near ATHs, pressing against the top...

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Palantir is compressing near ATHs, but showing early signs of exhaustion on higher timeframes. On the 4H chart, structure is still bullish — but fragile. 🔍 Key Technical Structure • Series of Breaks of Structure (BoS) confirming the bullish trend • Price is currently sitting above the $125 4H demand zone, near previous highs • Invalidation for the bearish thesis...

fredcast80

Chevron (CVX) recently broke structure to the upside after holding a 1D demand zone near $136. I'm now watching for a pullback toward the 0.382 retracement (~$141.80) of the recent impulse. This level aligns with the breakout area and offers a potential continuation setup. 🎯 Trade Setup: Bias: Long (on retracement) Entry zone: $141.80 – $142.00 Targets: 📌 Gap...

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NIKE (NKE) has completed a clean technical gap fill and is now showing early signs of a trend reversal. 🔍 Key Technical Factors: ✅ Gap Filled: The March-April gap was filled cleanly and held. ✅ EMA Crossover: EMA 9 crossed above EMA 21 → bullish short-term signal. ✅ RSI > 50: Momentum shifting bullish; RSI reclaiming territory above neutral. ✅ Volume...

fredcast80

This is a follow-up to my June 7 post where I highlighted a high-probability bearish divergence setup on Netflix. Since then, price has rejected from the supply zone and is now hovering above the critical $1,177 structure support. 🔍 What’s changed: 📉 Bearish divergence confirmed — price rejected the highs 🔻 Momentum continues to fade, RSI rolling down from >73 📊...

fredcast80

📌 Thesis: AMD is approaching a critical 1D supply zone ($122–$130) with bearish RSI divergence, suggesting possible short-term exhaustion. 🔍 Technical Overview: ✅ Structure: Bullish recovery confirmed with Break of Structure (BoS). 📈 Price Action: Higher highs into known supply zone. 📉 RSI: Forming lower highs, showing classic bearish divergence — a common...

fredcast80

Regeneron (REGN) is showing strong technical signals of potential reversal from a key weekly demand zone, replicating a setup similar to March 2021. 🔹 Bullish Engulfing Candle forms directly at the demand zone after a multi-month downtrend. 🔹 Volume Spike confirms strong buyer interest. 🔹 RSI shows bullish divergence, breaking its internal structure and holding...

fredcast80

PepsiCo (PEP) has retraced into a key weekly demand zone, where price previously launched long bullish legs. At the same time, a bullish divergence is forming between price and RSI, suggesting selling momentum may be weakening. Structure has clearly shifted bearish over the past two years, with multiple breaks of structure (BoS). However, the current setup shows...

fredcast80

Tesla (TSLA) continues to trade within a long-standing macro range, well-defined by two behavioral zones: 🟩 Value Zone – Accumulation ($132 to $270.50): This is where smart money tends to accumulate over time. Historically, moves from this zone lead to long-term rallies. Price spent multiple weeks here during major drawdowns — offering long-term entries at...

fredcast80

Palantir (PLTR) has completed a near-perfect parabolic advance, rising more than 479% over 378 days from its demand base in early 2024. The move has been relentless — supported by breakout volume and accelerating price structure. However, we are now at a potential inflection point. Price is stalling at the upper end of the parabolic curve, right near a prior...

fredcast80

Silver has been following a textbook ascending channel since mid-2024, with multiple clean Breaks of Structure (BoS) confirming sustained bullish momentum. Every major correction found support at well-defined 2D demand zones, allowing bulls to re-enter with confidence. Now, price has reached the upper boundary of the channel — a level that has historically...

fredcast80

Context: For more than three years, the Gold/Silver ratio traded within a predictable range between approximately 79 and 92. This provided consistent opportunities to rotate between metals: buying Gold when the ratio approached the bottom of the range, and favoring Silver when Gold became relatively expensive near the top. Breakout and Failure: In March 2025,...

fredcast80

📈 Summary: Netflix has rallied +44% in just 60 days, entering a steep, parabolic move. However, technical exhaustion signs are now flashing across multiple indicators — suggesting a potential near-term top may be forming. 🔍 Key Technical Observations: 1. Bearish RSI Divergence The RSI is making lower highs (~73) while price makes higher highs ...

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fredcast80

XMR has multiple rejections of the 20 EMA in the weekly, as well as 4 rejections of the 200 MA in the daily. In addition, it is currently facing a downwards Trendline. RR of the trade is 3.07.