frodo75

frodo75

This second attempt to breakout and consolidate near 0.618 retrace will be closely watched. If it fails again, it could start selling with a double top. Big money must feel confident to retry so soon. If they can hold 290 by close tomorrow, it will start a move up to 0.786 retrace and higher. Doesn't make sense, doesn't it?! Yup.

frodo75

Gap and Crap with inside bar usually leads to a follow-through the next day with another red candle. How low will it go? Plenty of room to fall and still remain bullish. I see that there is a reversal the 2nd day after this event so this is short term at best. Death cross is a different thing altogether. Considering this rally has been on the back of "new age"...

frodo75 Updated 

Back in the box, don't fight this ox. Chop, chop, Chop. Chop in the box. Need to see daily PSAR broken before I go bearish again. Will have to wait a long time. The PSAR was at around 272, the bear market line. Not saying we don't swoop down and lick it from the top side just to shake off the new bulls. But seriously, does anyone think we are NOT going to be...

frodo75

So it bounced from 30.5 and not 30. Just shoot me. We are not done yet with SPY. 293 or even 300 at daily SMA200 is the target. VIX "rebound" from 30 is an automatic reaction to hitting 291. Profit taking just prior to hitting the 0.618 Fib on SPY. These people are letting go a few pennies but guaranteeing best price as they know the algos will keep buying till...

frodo75 Updated 

Bullish move. Machines buying slowing and surely as sellers keep moving their prices up and algos nibbling all the way up. Low volume melt-up is not an anomaly, it is called a seller's market. Takes two to tango. Who wants to sell when the prices are going up? Buyers buy a little before the market makers move the price up. Enough to rope in retail investors to...

frodo75

Those trading this market with an eye on the economy should fold their bets and go home with what is left in their account. This market has nothing to do with the economy/fundamentals. All those PhDs and experts employed by the Fat Cats believe market should be going up. This is how the average Joe should bet too. There is nothing that will be "announced" in the...

frodo75 Updated 

Two indications for bullish move to 295: 1. 278/0.5 Fib of retrace was playing fulcrum last week for price movement. Friday action looks like it settled it. 2. Hourly PSAR broke to upside price movement. Caveat emptor and good luck!

frodo75

ES arrived at 2840 2 weeks ago. Since then, it has only been able to hold 2840 for a day or so. It keeps getting rejected at 2840 and the selling volume picks up. Let's see how we can get buyers above that for the 4th time now. I have to grant that there are buyers ready to push to 2840 but not enough to overcome the sustained selling that starts above 2840. 2880...

frodo75

GE's low was $5.51 a decade ago. It was a much bigger and more valuable company then. There are parts that are still amazing - healthcare, aircraft engines, etc. They should spin off these good parts so they may survive and continue to add value to society. Have to get rid of the inept management. Motorola, Lucent, GE... all bit by the "leadership" bug....

frodo75 Updated 

A plausible butterfly pattern on SPY with the current setup and situation. Down to 273.x tomorrow and up to 290.x Monday. Should be able to meet almost all the requirements of time, open gaps, fib retracements, SMA test, etc. We will then be free to fall. Fits very well. Caveat Emptor.

frodo75

Should reach the Fib shown.

frodo75 Updated 

I see that VIX has broken to the downside with an assertive move, which means the bearish case is unlikely for a few months. I will post on that chart separately. SMA200 should get to 295 soon, which is where I see this market heading in the short term. Volume has been dropping, which lines up with push up. PSAR on daily has been quite reliable in predicting...

frodo75

VIX has broken a shelf of support and is heading down. Next stop is 30 or so. This should translate to bullish market moves. Caveat Emptor and good luck!

frodo75

Should have, would have, could have. Was expecting GE to break the $6.0 barrier and go further south. It has been top 10 in trade volume on the exchanges for a while now. Who is trading it in such heavy volume? I thought that is what the 'dark pools' were for. Why mess with retail traders and clog up the lines? Anyway, I think this will go down with the rest of...

frodo75

Indicators show start of a down move. Ultimately, price action will determine the move. I am seeing futures drop a bit tonight. Perhaps a test of the 273 area again? Maybe even 271? At that point, we will see if we move up to chop around in 271-295 area or break 271 and go down for tryst with March lows and below. Stop at today's high. I have started to see some...

frodo75 Updated 

279 seems to be a good spot for today. Finish off 281.5 tomorrow. Back down to 275 area and then launch upwards. What do you think?

frodo75 Updated 

This line will soon be breached and closed over. First brush usually leads to pull back.

frodo75 Updated 

Looks like Gap and Go today. 273 held yesterday and futures are mighty up. Half a trillion dollars will be flooding the main street. Grants, not loans that have to be repaid. Even before Trump signed this one, he is talking about the next one. Money for Nothing.