Bitcoin price trajectory fitted almost perfectly the scenario presented on june 18th (W analysis) so far.
Now, nearing "endgame" and with price approaching the upper bound of the falling wedge, we can see some scrambling already.
Short term, we've plenty of concerning factors:
Rising wedge (D)
Pretty high TD count (8 - may still have margin) and a falling wedge running on long term trendline.
Moreover, close to historical strong support, just below the 40$ mark.
Given that, bias is towards bottoming and bounce towards 43-44 area at first.
Not excluding a further pullback to previous ascending channel.
That's tricky though, as further Ethereum merge...
Breakout of descending channel.
TP #1 160$ area, with possible extension to 200$ area.
Latter to be evaluated once target #1 is reached.
Two alternative possible routes up.
That's depending on the outcome of current test of BB middle line.
DXY within an ascending channel.
Pretty stretched already, with a TD count 12.
Ongoing bearish divergence on RSI (unless canceled by a further push).
A slowdown in MACD would likely trigger a cooldown from here.
Meaning some sideways action and/or a pullback, towards the 101 mark eventually.
Watch out for formation of some local high in July (or August).
Ether ABC correction seems pretty done.
We have decent volume on the June 13th weekly candle.
Having no clear sign of inversion so far, cannot rule out a further drop closer to 800$ area.
Yet scenario is already favourable for a Long trade, in my opinion.
* TP #1 1700/1800$ area
* TP #2 2500$ area (depends on BTC outcome, to be re-evaluated)
DOT trying to escape a falling wedge and seeemingly rounding a bottom.
Red TD count 11 already. Flattening RSI and MACD.
Cannot rule out a further wick down, but looks fair to me.
* TP #1 close to 17$ mark (> 2x)
* TP #2 close to 25$ mark (> 3x, depends on BTC outcome, to be re-evaluated)
Estimated 3-6 months.
To be re-evaluated.
Capitulation ongoing: announced by Hash Ribbons and MA20/W - MA100/W "death cross" few days ago and now confirmed.
Bottom fishing is pointless.
Taking advantage of panic is key.
While keeping risk under control is paramount here due to uncertainty (3AC, Census, BlockFi, ...) rules, good R:R insist here.
Playing my cards, will evaluate the outcome within few...
BNBBTC is still relatively close to its ATH, despite opverall alts weakness (except for ETH).
Given the peculiar recent tall doji candle, despite low volume, it's worth watching.
If it holds it may paint an ascending triangle or Cup & handle towards a new ATH.
Litecoin missed a good opportunity a while ago, as most alts did. That's due to Bitcoin weakness.
Due to MimbleWimble being a long term positive catalyst and since i see increasing chances of an altcoin relief rally i'm going to start my accumulation down right from here.
Looking forward triple digit before re-evaluating.
Long term trade, to be re-evaluated in 6M - 1Y.
Bitcoin failed the march bounce. Now moving sideways within the lower part of its (blue) ascending channel.
This is a tricky and undecisive area.
Bears stay in control unless 43k is recovered and MA20W and MA50W can be taken out (see the red rectangle).
The latter option would decidedly change the odds in favor of bulls, but let's face the actual scenario...
Ethereum still moving sideways within a broad ascending channel.
Currently compressed below BB middle line.
Volume down, flat MACD, mixed oscillators.
Likely to see a crucial test of the lower limit of the ascending channel.
If so there is a support area around 2700$ (2750-2500$ currently), which may spark a bounce.
failing that mind that a close W under 2700$...
2W is a pretty high TF, good for long term positioning if you have PATIENCE.
I see a bullish divergence on W and a strongly oversold Stoch RSI on 2W.
Flattening MACD, pretty far from SAR.
Looking forward to confirming signals within next few weeks / months.