giancarlopagliaroli

giancarlopagliaroli Updated 

Good news are bad news... I am building a personal dashboard about earnings from S&P500 Index Here the version 0.1 with the first 20 stocks, other stocks coming soon: www.tradingview.com More than half of stocks beat the estimates, this is a good news.... How the dashboard works: 1. Each cell contains the ticker and the percentage of outperforming or not...

giancarlopagliaroli

I like monitoring markets with my automated screeners and found this interesting example in which I try to analyze price action and volumes. January 10 SOL Up 12%! January 9 SOL Up 10.2%! January 4 SOL Up 20%! January 3 SOL Up 13.3%! December 30 SOL High Volumes! What is missing in the last uptrend? Volumes. The trend started with high volumes but the strong...

giancarlopagliaroli

I have decoded the following model in Tradingview This is the sector rotation model where different sectors are stronger at different points in the economic cycle. Here my results in Tradingview by creating this ad-hoc layout I compare relative strengths of sectors at different points in the economic cycle with sectors which are stronger at previous...

giancarlopagliaroli

My Dashboard on Tradingview www.tradingview.com where I am monitoring the entire bond market in the world with my magma indicator, country by country. When investing for the long term I first look the bond market before leaping in the stocks. There are few simple and important rules to follow in this market. 1. Higher Bond yields = Lower Bond Prices =...

giancarlopagliaroli

Adding more symbols to my indicator of correlations and finding an inversion of correlations between Us and China stocks, from a high positive correlation in the long-term (1-year, 3-months) to a less and negative correlation in the swing-term (1-Month, 1-Week). this pivot is interesting to me

giancarlopagliaroli

Today I receive LONG signals from last weekly Committment of Traders (COT) on EUROFX in line with the forecast increasing of ECB Interest rate. But technically speaking the chart is more short side than long: - 4-hour chart is touching the higher side of a falling parallel channel - Daily chart again is touching 50-period Simple Moving Avarage which was a strong...

giancarlopagliaroli

natural gas is risky and high volatile. A simply backtest on seasonality over the last years is not sufficient. But I note now an interesting technical convergence to a dynamic support since 2020 and Fibonacci Level (0.618) retracement of this last uptrend. Maybe it could be the last long swing trading if chart will confirm that

giancarlopagliaroli

1. 2019 My first buy&hold on Bitcoin 2. 2020 the black swan and fear. I had fear in March but not sold because I had studied, but I did not buy more with fear 2. 2021 I got back my invested capital and some of profits when all spoked about bitcoin 3. 2022 learning in short-selling because downtrend still active. My approach is hedging my remaining tokens Jesse...

giancarlopagliaroli

I always monitor correlations before doing day trading or swing trading on more assets, at the same time. Correlation is a measure that defines how different assets move in relation to one another. The more the correlation coefficient is, the more they are aligned closely. My layout of correlations here. US Dollar and SP500 as references at first row of each...

giancarlopagliaroli

My backtests, September and October are not good months for long swing trading, but Im finding some reason from last WASDE reports *****************September release on wheat – U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month – Global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month, as production increases for...

giancarlopagliaroli

S&P500 always dropped after the ending of inversion between 2-years (red line) and 10-years (horizontal green line) yield curves. Now we are in a huge inversion window and maybe the major US index could go up or lateralize, but it is more probably it will go down after this window

giancarlopagliaroli

I use Zscore as a good alternative of RSI indicator to catch up possible highs and lows of the market. Im finding now this interesting fractal figure respect to 2016. I don't know if price will go up or down but i will monitor this. Timeframe of this chart is daily so I'm using 1-year period avarage (SMA-252) for zscore calculations

giancarlopagliaroli

red meat demand is increasing and live stock needs soy meal

giancarlopagliaroli

Summary of the last September WASDE Report: ***WHEAT*** – U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month – Global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine, more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all...

giancarlopagliaroli

I have calculated a buy value at roughly $36 (fair value based on earnings forecast minus 20% margin of security). Now we are at this price. Chart is in the main volume cluster but is falling like the entire sector (PM and MO have the same beta - volatility - at the moment) BTI is plus affecting now by the fear of american investors due to the falling of pound...

giancarlopagliaroli

Someone's telling now it is good going long US Oil in the friday, and going short in the wednesday. Is Black Monday really worse in the markets? Lets find out in this article Percent of win report day by day. Yes, Friday is the best day for trading long US Crude Oil, since 1986, but not Wednesday for going short. Good option is Monday, instead. No good days of...

giancarlopagliaroli

In this my backtest studying the relation between the Bulk Dry Index and some of popular stocks in marine shipping sector, using CAGR as parameter of performance. CAGR is calculated from swing-high/swing-low to swing-low/swing-high of Baltic Dry index (ticker:BDI) over last years. Marine shipping stocks are strongly correlated with the Bulk Dry Index. Stocks...

giancarlopagliaroli

fibonacci retracement 0.382 and 0.618 are good levels to monitor for well structured trend like this on USDOLLAR