gigisulivan

gigisulivan Updated 

I had a SHORT setup flagged few weeks ago that did bring us down to last support and at the time I did not pay enough attention to similarities in wave movements with previous zones. As you can see (and you can also find my on-chain analysis in latest the newsletter - link in signature) we are looking to have same setup as end of Jan to early Apr with final wave...

gigisulivan

Been a while since I posted any setups, but to be fair not much has happened in the markets. SP500 being more volatile than BTC sounds weird but that is what we had recently until that last move up on crypto bringing Bitcoin to IMO a critical area of resistance at 100DMA and 21k. It has been respected before and while we could pop above it, if today's candle...

gigisulivan Updated 

This has worked without fail in the past as an early warning sign for incoming sell-off. Could this time be different? We should find out tomorrow after CPI data is released, since consensus is mixed across YoY CPI and Core CPI, we could get an unpredictable reaction, although risk-on markets look to be bullish there isn't that much optimism there yet. If this...

gigisulivan

Hot topic right now is J Powell's promise to fight inflation no matter what the cost until people feel the "pain" and change their habits. As we know recent rally on risk-on assets show us how eager investors were to get bullish even though there was no real evidence of FED Pivot coming. I have no doubt larger players used that opportunity to dump unwanted stock...

gigisulivan

Another rally on Bitcoin and crypto in general that looks to be closing to an end. I've used my recently published CryptoGDSS template that allows for easy to read signals, especially strong if lower and higher timeframes are in synch like in our current situation where 1h already flagged a valid SELL signal (overbought on oscillators and price action fully above...

gigisulivan Updated 

I have not looked closely at TOTAL crypto chart for a while, but it works bit better with Fibonacci tools and overall levels where we might expect 2022 Bear market could go. I won't go into macro details, as most already know what is here and what is coming, so there is no doubt we are going lower. Question is how low? I had 800b TOTAL mcap for crypto marked for...

gigisulivan Updated 

Another bearish signal aligns with current risk-on markets sentiment. This plus price action on Daily for Bitcoin look very alike 2018, although I thought we won't see capitulation until closer to October it seems with likely more aggressive stance from FED over the Summer, it could happen very soon. Will it drop 50% from here? Well its not impossible, my sweet...

gigisulivan

While everyone now are focused on where Bitcoin is heading in short term, it is worth a look where it could likely go after the next halving. Based on previous tops we get 3 trend lines each hitting next halving's key areas of support/resistance, which can be seen on the chart with middle purple (2013-2018 tops) covering both Summer 2021 retrace and where BTC did...

gigisulivan Updated 

We had several of these in 2022 and only most recent one did not signal a move down, judging from oscillators the reason for no move down could be the fact Bitcoin was heavily oversold already, this time though Daily chart show a lot of room for it to continue the down trend. If you put this together with CPI numbers release on 10th of June and FOMC meeting on...

gigisulivan Updated 

Considering all my BTC Short setups have completed and exceeded the target ranges, with some calmness returning to equity market and no major events on the economic calendar this week (I don't think J Powell speech on Tuesday will rattle markets to the downside as I think they got a good "reaction" post CPI and he is more likely to keep talking about 50pts int...

gigisulivan Updated 

Yet another new ATH on Bitcoin's hashrate, which on last occasion many called as a sign for recovery/new bull run and all that hopium you are probably used to by now, but it played out exactly as all ATH's this year with a big sell off. That time even stronger than I expected (you can see my previous trade ideas linked). There was some discrepancy between 27th of...

gigisulivan Updated 

As the "death cross" trade on BTC and other risk on charts completed, by Bitcoin hitting the low target of 48k (could still extend to 52k ), situation on daily chart is ripe for a return to downtrend. Attempts on 200 daily MA failing, copying 2018 May- July setups, especially considering Weekly chart where one of the relief rallies ended up hitting from below 50...

gigisulivan Updated 

AUDUSD being one of the key risk on pairs, got very close to 0.73 which served already as resistance in January looks to be a likely turning point and return to strong sell off on Risk on assets (crypto and equities). DXY also breaking above recent levels continuing over a year long move from lows ahead of J Powell's speech later on today and ADP/NFP numbers this...

gigisulivan Updated 

Hashrate recorded a new ATH, although this is not clear on TV chart for some reason other sources I use for on-chain data like cryptoquant confirm yesterday we had a spike above previous high on 13th of Feb (you can see my trade idea linked below). As per my previous analysis this is a highly likely indication a further drop in Bitcoin's price is imminent, adding...

gigisulivan Updated 

As Russia/West tensions increase and US stock futures in red, it is easy to expect a further sell off in equities (the same should happen in crypto market). We already had a deathcross (Daily timeframe on top chart) on Friday and if you check past this pattern is actually bullish long term. Considering the Weekly chart, I am expecting a close below 30 RSI (11)...

gigisulivan Updated 

I've been tracking this since the BTC death cross occurred and while I know this is too late for anyone to make any profitable decisions it is worth making a note for the future. You can verify the 50 and 200MA death crosses yourself but the probability of BTC going back to 200MA is very high (only failed once in Sept 2014). Currently my safe target would be 48k....

gigisulivan Updated 

We just had a significant BTC Hashrate increase over last 24hs of over 30% bringing us to a new ATH. As highlighted on my chart, last two ATH's were on 1st and 13th of Jan followed by significant drops in BTC price, these were first new highs since April 2021 after which we've seen a strong move down. While this analysis considers only recent changes in hashrate...

gigisulivan Updated 

We are back at a long term holding trend line on USDT dominance, if bouncing back up it will mean this crypto rally was short lived and we're returning to downtrend. Breaking below and staying would be a bullish sign and likely BTC completing the earlier death cross trade (see linked)