Is there something nice to do today ?
Alt did a big bounce on the support, it won't last, but there is a nice bullish momentum. It needs a nice resistance to push that down again. So... I want to be long today !
I wait a dip (may be no dip ! ) , and I'll reload. Sell at the target.
I wanted to write this idea as a personal road map for the coming months. We entered in a correction phase after a parabolic move.
a kind of "bubble pop"
There will be big moves, high volatility. Very good for day trading.
On the left 2018
on the right, now
2018: I' found this double top pattern. We see a nice oversold on 4h chart. S/R levels are reliable
2019 The first spike was a fomo spike, as we see often on low TF. 4h oversold start. S/R levels are reliable too.
Don't get trapped ! The 9.8k support can break. Not in 4h. but it can break. Trade safe.
And see how the chart develop.
1D: what a drop !!!
It's sitting on a nice support. But there is under another nice support under 10 900
2h: nice double top pattern
Only red vol candle. Just one weak green candle. It's not enough. I wait a nice green candle to think "reversal".
Plan of the day: think bear. And let's hunt patterns again.
10 900 would be the ultimate target for now. There is...
Nice wake up today, +7% profit on binance ! It's going up faster than expected.
D: 5 green vol candle in a row. Very bullish !! 3 candle increase. today candle in process
13 300 - 13800: there will be some resistance here may be, but nothing special. I don't expect yet a fast grow here. Probably a slow up. Once above, it's blue sky, it will push faster....
Risisng wedge, bearish pattern
How to trade that: wait the confirmation of the breakdown. It's less aggressive but safer.
Target ? It's written on the chart how to have an idea.
On that case, there was a rounded top
In this kind of uptrend, there is 4-5 stages
Each one goes faster and faster. (-4h in this case)
At each stage, volatility decrease. than spike
At the top: (stage 4-5): volatility is pinned to the top. Vol candle are really bigger than before
Then correction: ABC
A new day start !
D: bullish ! no exhaustion of the green candle yet. Momentum full bullish.
1h: I had to change my lines, to adapt to reality. It's bullflag after bullflag. Ultimate target is 13 345. Volatility is stable. Price action is just growing
5mn: There is a bullflag touching a resistance 12 800. Next resistance is at 13 300
Plan: wait for a breakout...
As I said yesterday, I was ready to buy the breakout. It's done, Nice volume candle, 4% move instantly. I took 75% of my profit. I placed a SL at 11.8k. And... wait. We never know what's happening next.
TA of the day: it's touching the 12k resistance. The big trend wall is near 12.5k. Stoch momentum is turning more bullish
I can expect a bull flag at 12k, then...
D: we are making a big triangle pattern. Momentum is fading. Big green candle rejected from the upside.
2h: volatility is fading. More red vol candle than green vol candle. There is many wicks downside
30mn: under the EMA 100, it's temporary bearish momentum.
No volatility. Possible profit before touching big support/resistance 1-1.5%...
BTC has broken the downtrend chanel. Made a M pattern, returned in the downtrend chanel.
Big bounce: 6h: big green volume candle.
And the downtrend chanel is broken again to the upside!! is it that a trend wall that can be broken easily up or down ? It's a useless trend now probably.
It's why I'm changing my point of vue. A possible uptrend chanel can be...
BTC is moving in this etablished chanel.
Break above, it's OK for a +7% move.
If the first attempt fail: possible pullback, and 2d attempt. Fail ? Probably back to 9k. Look at what happened a few days ago.
Don't anticipate or FOMO. wait a clean situation
D: We hit a big downtrend line. MACD is exponential. Hudge bullish momentum
4H: Stoch is heading down lower than a few days ago: bearish divergence ? + Many wicks on candles (up and down)
What I expect down sooner or later : target 3750 $. Then long. Next resistance: EMA: 4 400 $ - 4 500 $
I do this memo to help me. So, don't trust me, I'm not enough reliable.
On my previous analysis, I did a bad prediction. I changed a few things in my method.
Now, let's do another try.
On 18h chart:
- stoch is crossing
- CCi start to go up
- BTC indicator begin slightly uptrend
- It touched 0.42 a few hours ago
=> Possible reversal in process. BUT the...
It was a nice beartrap a few days ago . This massive selloff was due to bitcoin dump. Now XRP is the 2d cryptocurrency market cap. And grow fast.
Back in the chanel. Uptrend resume !
It may go up toward 0.55, then 0.6, may be 0.64.
I bought at the green arrow.
This is the new frame, chanel, resistance, etc. The important thing it's we are going up. We'll see how step by step. It will take time, we're in recovery market. So, be patient !