haug01

PRO
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Markets Allocation
23 % stocks 19 % forex 4 % commodities 54 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
DXY 10% | 5 JPYUSD 8% | 4 EURUSD 6% | 3 XLF 4% | 2
haug01 haug01 PRO XAGUSD, 240, Long ,
XAGUSD: Silver has broken its downtrend line
107 2 8
XAGUSD, 240 Long
Silver has broken its downtrend line

COT data show that the commercial traders have closed a significant fraction of their net short position. The commercial traders short/long ratio is 1.74. I would prefer it to be closer to 1.5 but it may be there when Fridays report comes out. The large speculators have mostly capitulated. I went long one silver future this AM and will open a half position in ...

haug01 haug01 PRO DJI, W, Short ,
DJI: The Dow Jones's Weekly RSI is overbought and turning down
82 0 0
DJI, W Short
The Dow Jones's Weekly RSI is overbought and turning down

The Dow Jones's Weekly RSI is Turning Down From Overbought Territory. I went short one DJI future last week which did well. I opened an SDOW position in my 401k which got stopped out around breakeven after the overnight rally extending into Friday's daytime rally. I went short another future Friday at $23410. The US central bank has stopped quantitative easing ...

haug01 haug01 PRO VEU, M,
VEU: The Global Stock Market (excluding US) is Overbought
22 0 2
VEU, M
The Global Stock Market (excluding US) is Overbought

The Global Stock Market's (excluding US) Monthly RSI is Entering Overbought Territory. While not as extreme as VT, I would be careful about going long here in developed markets or emerging markets. For a while longer, I expect it will outperform the US but I think it will for in upcoming months. The ECB is planning (that may change if stocks or especially bonds ...

haug01 haug01 PRO VT, M, Short ,
VT: The Global Stock Market's Monthly RSI is  Hitting a Top
15 0 0
VT, M Short
The Global Stock Market's Monthly RSI is Hitting a Top

The Global Stock Market's Monthly RSI is Hitting a Top in an Overbought Position. This is dominated by US equities. There is no etf to short this index in my 401k. I am currently short one Dow future. Trying to short the US market has not been very rewarding so far. I will start shorting it more going forward. I watched my 401k fall a lot in 2008 and ...

haug01 haug01 PRO RTYZ2017, 240, Short ,
RTYZ2017: Russell 2000 Futures Show a Bearish Megaphone Pattern
7 0 1
RTYZ2017, 240 Short
Russell 2000 Futures Show a Bearish Megaphone Pattern

I saw this yesterday AM went went short one future. I closed that last night at the support line. I am sorry I didn't have time to post this then but I had to leave for work. I will try to short it again as the downward channel develops (if it does). I will be watching for more weakness in the other US equities indices. There are no COT data on Barchartdotcom.

haug01 haug01 PRO EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: EURUSD has a Head and  Shoulders Pattern on its Daily Chart
86 0 6
EURUSD, D Short
EURUSD has a Head and Shoulders Pattern on its Daily Chart

Multiple authors already posted this pattern under EURUSD. I previously posted on the EURUSD Bearish Pin Bar on the daily chart (August30, 2017). Back then, I did not look at the COT data. I am correcting that oversight now. Go to wwwdotbarchartdotcom and look under futures then under Commitment Of Traders. It looks like the commercials play futures on a ...

haug01 haug01 PRO DXY, 15, Long ,
DXY: DXY finds support at prior resistance
50 0 5
DXY, 15 Long
DXY finds support at prior resistance

I went long on one DXY future this AM. I closed my open XAGUSD position for a nice profit. I do not have any open XAUUSD positions now. While I expect DXY weakness, this chart favors DXY strength. I would not be surprised to get stopped out with a small loss here.

haug01 haug01 PRO DXY, 2W, Long ,
DXY: DXY going up.  COT data favors strong DXY.
60 3 2
DXY, 2W Long
DXY going up. COT data favors strong DXY.

The COT data is very important for traders to understand. Go to barchartdotcom. In the upper left, click on futures . On the left, click on commitment of traders. In the center left, click on DXY. The middle graph shows the positions of the Commercials (banks, etc), the Large Speculators, and the Small Speculators. The lower graph shows Dealer Intermediaries, ...

haug01 haug01 PRO USB10YUSD, 240, Long ,
USB10YUSD: 10 Year US Bonds find support and break their downtrend line
22 0 4
USB10YUSD, 240 Long
10 Year US Bonds find support and break their downtrend line

10 Year US Bonds find support and break their downtrend line. UST has reasonable liquidity. I will open a half position in my 401k today.

haug01 haug01 PRO XAUUSD, 240, Long ,
XAUUSD: Gold finds support at 1268
63 0 5
XAUUSD, 240 Long
Gold finds support at 1268

Gold finds support at 1268. I went long on a gold future last night at 1276.1. I will open a half position in GDX in my 401k today.

haug01 haug01 PRO XAGUSD, 240, Long ,
XAGUSD: Silver breaks its downtrend line
105 0 5
XAGUSD, 240 Long
Silver breaks its downtrend line

Silver breaks its downtrend line. I will open a half position on SIL in my 401k and go long an XAGUSD future in my margin account on a pull back in the 5 minute chart.

haug01 haug01 PRO FBU2017, D, Long ,
FBU2017: European banks turn up as US 30 year treasury bonds fall
4 0 1
FBU2017, D Long
European banks turn up as US 30 year treasury bonds fall

Banks do better in a high interest rate environment. The US central bank is going to be reducing its balance sheet by selling US bonds. As the yield curve steepens, interest rates rise. If reflation holds (DXY falls, interests rates rise AND it doesn't crash the market), banks could do very well. Watch for upward resistance here. The european banks are up ...

haug01 haug01 PRO DXY, 60,
DXY: DXY is testing its downtrend line
44 0 4
DXY, 60
DXY is testing its downtrend line

For DXY to rally, it needs to break its downtrend line. The result of course affects currencies, gold, commodities, and bonds. chartwatchers (https://www.tradingview.com/u/chartwatchers/) has a great post on this today. BLUE43 (https://www.tradingview.com/u/BLUE43/) has multiple charts on this. I posted it as neutral but I am short USB10YUSD via TWO in my 401k. ...

haug01 haug01 PRO JP225USD, 240,
JP225USD: JP225USD is testing upward resistance
26 0 2
JP225USD, 240
JP225USD is testing upward resistance

After breaking downward from a descending triangle, JP225USD rallied with all the other global equities. It has shown some resistance at $19,900 which was a former support. If it breaks down, JPYUSD and XAUUSD should rise. Conversely, If it breaks up, JPYUSD and XAUUSD should fall. I will watch the Japanese open and decide whether to go long or short on these ...

haug01 haug01 PRO USB10YUSD, D,
USB10YUSD: US 10 Year Bond is testing it's daily uptrend line and support
14 0 2
USB10YUSD, D
US 10 Year Bond is testing it's daily uptrend line and support

I posted this as neutral because it can go either way from here. I bought TYO in my 401k two days ago and shorted the future yesterday. For those who are short, this is a take profit area if support holds. I will put a tight stop loss here. A long position can be taken here depending on the price action. If it breaks support and the uptrend line, short at an ...

haug01 haug01 PRO USB30YUSD, D,
USB30YUSD: US 30 Year Bond is testing it's daily uptrend line and support
12 0 2
USB30YUSD, D
US 30 Year Bond is testing it's daily uptrend line and support

I posted this as neutral because it can go either way from here. I shorted the future 2 days ago but did not buy TMV in my 401k. For those who are short, this is a take profit area if support holds. I will put a tight stop loss here. A long position can be taken here depending on the price action. If it breaks support and the uptrend line, short at an ...

haug01 haug01 PRO EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: EURUSD has a Bearish Pin Bar on its Daily Chart
70 0 6
EURUSD, D Short
EURUSD has a Bearish Pin Bar on its Daily Chart

A pin bar on a daily chart signals a direction change. Here the stop loss is at the top of the pin bar where there was strong selling pressure. I am short a EURUSD future in my margin account and will buy UUP in my 401k. EURUSD can fall as GER30 and DAX show strength. I will look at going long on DPK or some Europe etf in my 401k. Traders can take precautions ...

haug01 haug01 PRO DXY, D, Long ,
DXY: DXY has a Bullish Pin Bar on its Daily Chart
40 0 6
DXY, D Long
DXY has a Bullish Pin Bar on its Daily Chart

DXY has gone down for 8 months while EURUSD, AUXUSD, and USB30YUSD and many others have done great. I will take profits today on GDX and SIL in my 401k. I will go long on UUP in my 401lk. I went short on a CADUSD future last night and EURUSD future this AM in my margin account. I am ready to short US equities (SPXUSD, NAS100USD, DJI), bonds, and commodities. A ...

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