Why arent we rallying? Dollar is falling and OPEC and Russia are now talking.
This kind of thing produced great returns in the spring.
Heres the difference. In the Spring the market thought OPEC was going to freeze, gasoline demand was much higher, and shale production was going much lower than it has. However there is one more key difference. In the spring...
China SPR full.
Look at the big picture. The monthly chart i just posted.
We are very much still in a bear market.
You dont get big red bars like we have lately in a bull market.
Market must account for the big spring rally that was predicated on false...
Forget about the inverse head and shoulders crap.
We arent rallying.
We are going to new lows.
YOY surplus is growing as we now enter seasonal maintenance season.
Global production is surging.
Storage is full.
Market has clearly topped.
50 Day under 100 Day
Seasonality is always weak this time of the year.
Best case scenario opec freezes as levels that are too...
So why did we rally so much in the spring after the no production freeze deal was announced?
Well 3 primary bullish assumptions were being made.
1) Iran was NOT capable of increasing production very quickly
2) US shale production was going to drop to 8mmbls/d by year end.
3) US gasoline demand was dramatically higher than it actually was (EIA misreported this in...