Complimenting the BTC waterfall setup we also have MSTR at the local resis level. If this is a bull trap, there's a good chance it's ending here. Buying deep OTM puts. I hate the gap up risk. So I'll buy the cheapest puts I can. If I am right, they should all print and if I am wrong would prefer it to be cheap. See BTC post:
This trade didn't go too well for me in BTC but today's another day and I'm a gluten for punishment. Still have BTC shorts on. Largely because I'm noting the indices moves and think BTC may correlate to risk and if the indices are making local breaks BTC may be a catchup trade. Not as comfortable with it as I was a few days ago, but I still think the BTC...
USDJPY has strong positive swaps and the potential to go into a sustained uptrend if we can break the next level of resistances. See full swing analysis here: As such, I am really interested in buying the obvious long signals into support. If you follow my work, you'll know my fave retracement pattern is the 76 correction. This has filled, triggering a long here.
Bitcoin currently trades on a real make or break level. Chances of a water fall break are high if we break the current supports but we also have to be careful of a spike high. A double wick is something we can see a lot in tops. Trailing stops to lock in profits on my crypto related shorts. Still in if we downtrend, if we spike I want to bank profits and I...
Markets have been selling hard recently. Done well with shorts but starting to feel it's a bit too easy. Would be much more comfortable shorting into a rally. This may or may not come, but at this point we can prep to trade momentum setups long if the bear move fails and then plan the retracement trade.
Big harmonics are everywhere. Surely something is cooking? harmonics either succeed of fail spectacularly. There are big ones all over the place. I'd be on alert for strong trends upon the decision of the harmonics. Can go either way, harmonic fails setup strong rallies. If these harmonics play out as they'd predict - some sort of shock move is probably coming.
"We're so Early" BTC bulls say we're so early and 100,000 people agree. Which isn't how things usually go when you're "Early". Moving Goalposts on Value Proposition The original value proposition of BTC was it would be a currency with various benefits over fiat currencies. It's never happened and as it's become more obvious it's not happening it's just...
We're down off a big resistance level and currently into a 76 retracement. Fair chance if we're in a down move we'll see the follow through of it here. Good spot for high RR shorts. Would get out the way quickly if high isn't made in the current area.
The way most people speak about BTC and the things they do with it seem far more in line with me with a speculative bet than a viable currency. Here's some examples; I've never been told, "Accept BTC via payment gateways, or you'll miss out big". I'm always told I should, "Buy BTC or I'll miss out big". And this is correctly framed because I've had BTC...
Smartphones are here to stay. Don't let the naysayers tell you otherwise! BB launch the first smartphone in 1999 and now in 2008 has become the industry leader!!! The stonk is up 700% in just the last two years. And the only way is up!!! By the year 2020 I predict EVERYONE will have a smartphone. We probably won't even speak to each other anymore. Just...
Japan recently officially announced a recession and then the BoJ raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years. Which, of course, means Nikkei makes a new high for the first time in 30 yrs. Because nothing is ever allowed to make any sense. But maybe this is a massive crab pattern... Which would make this a massive high. Could be a larger...
Buying a MSTR puts with 1 - 2 months on them with strikes scatted from 1200 - 1000. We've recently hit the 4.23 - which is a very common move for the end of an extreme extension. Coupled with the various possible rug setups in crypto I fancy the odds of a big reaction here.
Late 2022 / Early 2023 the idea that rising interest rates would mean declines in equities was widely accepted. This was the keystone point of many bear cases. Moreover, the Fed pivoting was the prominent bull thesis. As it turned out, both interest rates and equities went higher for longer. And this is not actually a surprise, based on the back testing of...
NVDA is the stock of the current times, but is this driven by real substance or it's it enthusiasm based momentum following fuelled by creative accounting practices? Introduction: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), a leading technology company renowned for its innovations in graphics processing units (GPUs) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, has recently...
The attempt at a new high so far has been unsuccessful. Producing a big wick. We've recently hit the area where I think the critical supports are. If BTC can not rally out of this area, I think we're going to see a rug pull. Critical support I think was around 62,500. We've traded under it and my bias is towards a break coming (Although when it comes to...
These types of patterns form and fail a lot in an uptrend and it's not advisable to use them as a sole strategy for fading a trend (Unless you're also using longs to offset losses on shorts) but this is coming in an area I've been looking at for a long time. So particularly interested in it. Built up a fair amount of short in the rally after the FOMC news. ...
Note - this analysis is entirely contingent upon a high being made here. A new high annuls the analysis. All this is doing is mapping out the typical swings we see in a break as part of prep for dealing with one if it comes. Betting the high is in here in speculative (I have puts, but it's a high RR setup). Follow up to: As discussed in the last post, there...
Here I'd like to propose to you a hypothetical stress test. The idea of a "Stress test" isn't to think about what you think will happen, it's to consider the affects of the things you do not think are going to happen happening. The stress test is as follows; If BTC was heading into a "Depression" style crash (Characterised by a drawdown of over 80% and five...