holeyprofit

holeyprofit

Some charts just chart up themselves. Here if we see a spike we'll get a head and shoulders completing around the 76 retracement. Very good confluence of short signals. Would love to fade a spike here.

holeyprofit

While everything else put in really big rallies RUT has lagged and acted a lot more consistently with a classic bull trap pattern. I continue to think the weakness in the RUT is sus, because in theory small caps should be stronger into the early section of a bull market. Probably a spike to come. Likely a fast one. Maybe a good time to be long OTM calls, but...

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Huge risk area for bulls now as indices start to fill major harmonic levels. SPX has formed a massive bat pattern and Nasdaq is into the PRZ of a massive butterfly pattern. Major decision level now. Longs would be wise to trail stops tight. If momentum fails it will do so spectacularly. High RR shorts available in this range (With the caveat prices can spike...

holeyprofit Updated 

Have a short bias on USD now for a while. Will be back to being really bullish on it if we break and sustain new highs or if we make big corrective rallies. I am looking ideally to see EURUSD back close to 1.100. Gold back over 2100. Would love to fade rallies into these levels for the hyper RR trades they may offer. With the lows where they are, I am...

holeyprofit Updated 

I previous mentioned I'd love to be a buyer of USD if we got back to 104 - 103. We're here now and this is also a 161 of the topping swing, which can be a good support level. Long USD is scaled up to my biggest position today. Traded across all majors with the exception of USDJPY (Since I believe Yen may be moving this pair rather than USD). Update to:

holeyprofit Updated 

Big pop on breaking the 1.61 and then topped on the 2.61. Hit stops on my shorts 2080. Didn't even see this spike initially (Really didn't expect such a move so early in the week) or I'd have tried to fade it. May or may not have went well. Might have got my stops sniped, might have shorted the high. Can go either way with these ones. I think we may have seen...

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Firstly, congrats to bulls. Well done. I quit on my big short attempts on this a while ago (And in general am trading smaller in crypto because why pay big spreads when the FX etc markets are moving so much and almost free to trade) but this looks like the spot to try again. I still maintain my thesis this is a bull trap in a developing downtrend.

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GME made a parabolic rally. A first top at 76 and now has made a 76 retracement of that drop. Might be the end of the bear market rally here.

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I'm very much a "M's and W's" guy when it comes to harmonics. I rarely look for or spot these ones with lots of false breakouts. But this looks like a textbook shark pattern. Textbook pic attached for reference.

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Gold is filling a bearish butterfly pattern on the daily. Along side USD hitting major supports this might set the scene for a dramatic turn in gold. Positioned short here and would build position into a drop is one comes.

holeyprofit Updated 

TLT has been in a rally of late. When I bought this at 84 I'd planned to hold longer. However, this looks suspiciously like an Elliot correction. Back to a bear bias on bonds. Update to

holeyprofit Updated 

The recent rally has been very aggressive (Much more so than I expected), but it still fits inside of the context of Elliot correction. A big wave 2 can go up to a double top (And sometimes even feature a wick spike out). We have clear 5 waves down. This might be the latter part of wave C. Flat ranging top usually come in three phases. One - Range. Two -...

holeyprofit Updated 

Complimenting the TLT forecast: Bat pattern in the 10 year yields. Norms of this pattern is to be super strong into the end, have massive attention and almost everyone expecting the move to continue. Bats often both top and break with news. Over the last days I've been strongly suggesting to real life friends they dump risk assets and buy bonds.

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Correction was nicely signalled by a bat pattern. We've now reached the 76 support level. Unless we break the 76 my bias is now towards 6%. Update to

holeyprofit Updated 

This has been in a crash of late and got a lot of attention for it but we're getting close to the levels where often even in a downtrend a big bounce is due. With the caveat that this can rug if supports are broken, there's high RR long ops in this area.

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Not been doing much with SPX recently since it's been essentially range bound. Slightly grinding upside move. Been waiting for harmonic topping signals to size up. Potentially forming these now at 4590. Scaling up swing shorts again.

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MSFT is at a new high. Forming in a bat pattern and looking suspiciously like the major false breakout in BTC before its big reversal. Super high RR ops here because if this is a false breakout it should run just enough to bring in bulls but not enough to pay them. Fading this here with tight stops.

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Really is the last time I am going to try this. Made some decent money in the drops over last day but gave about a 3rd of it back during the rally today. This still feels so much like a squeeze. If it is a really strong reversal is coming. Taking some more shorts here and buying more deep OTM puts.