infin0

infin0 Updated 

I see a lot of commentary for the AUD to bounce as it is oversold. Caution! What reason is there for it to bounce? 1. China is Australia's biggest trading partner. Coronavirus has China panicked and for example Fortescue has been smashed by this panic. 2. Australian growth and CPI is still flat, and Coronavirus could trigger an interest rate cut. 3. USA is in...

infin0

given the fast drop through trend line, i am looking for a consolidation around that line and a further impulse lower. This is highly likely if US Fed keeps rates steady this month.

infin0 Updated 

Vol has been super low as the S&P has roared higher due to Fed not-QE. But there are black swans awaiting the complacent: hugely overbought major stocks especially Apple. Iran conflict re-flaring. Impeachment trial in Senate. The floor at this level makes the risk reward attractive.

infin0

I opened a buy but stopped out when the AUD fell with power. This trend line is now broken. This could result in a steep fall along with rally in DXY.

infin0 Updated 

Having now established a clear bull trend, this pullback is a good low-risk opportunity to buy.

infin0 Updated 

DXY Seems range bound, and the Fed is pumping more liquidity into system with its not-QE QE. This could see weakening US Dollar.

infin0 Updated 

I haven't traded the AUDUSD for a while because it has been unexpectedly strong and not making sense to me but now we see the USD strengthening again and poor unemployment stats in Australia today. This is setting up for another roll over. I am looking for a right shoulder to develop and then a large drop could result.

infin0

The S&P 500 is showing clear signs of exhaustion with its double top and desperation to sell down any bad news. I have opened a sell at 2940 and expect a long fall over the next 3 months. (anything can happen in October!).

infin0 Updated 

The AUD tried to crack 69c but ran out of steam and is now shop,wing signs of heavy exhaustion. RBA commentary - Aus economy is weak, interest rates to cut next week, wages growth slow, unemployment ticking up. More cuts likely. If Iron Ore drops this will make the Aus economy even more vulnerable.

infin0 Updated 

This trade war is going to hit the SPX hard in the next 6 months I think. SPX reached a new all time high and then collapsed. This demonstrates exhaustion to me. It is hard to see how further rate cuts can bolster this market as the trade war will have far more direct consequences on 1. Global GDP growth, US Company profits and USD rise. It's entirely...

infin0 Updated 

Momentum of rise seems to be slowing. When this peters out short again. I note on the 200 MDA it touched several times but this seems to be a long term resistance. While US interest rates remain higher than Aus this should not change.

infin0 Updated 

Two factors I am watching closely: RBA interest rate and Iron ore price. if Iron falls then demand for AUD will fall. Expectations of an August interest rate cut have dropped following strong CPI result (0.6) vs. (0.5). That only provided a temporary rise in price as relentless selling continues. I don't see any other good news coming out of Aus.

infin0 Updated 

Watch for the SPX to make a rolling over pattern. Failure to make a new high here is a big sign of the S&P preparing to falter. Trade war is dragging on, Fed is not coming to save with hard interest rate cuts. I am going to ease in with half on the next rally.

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The DXY has spectacularly smashed through all short term levels. This will be of extreme concern for Trump and US Treasury. A stronger USD will beget more strength unless the Fed and Treasury intervene. This will make it harder for US to fight its Trade War, trigger a US recession and increase unemployment. It also makes it harder than otherwise for the Govt...

infin0 Updated 

DXY has broken 97.50 based on dovish news out of the ECB. Europe ready to keep easing, negative rates etc. EUR to fall.

infin0

Momentum has stayed short, and given a new high was not made I quickly closed the long trade and reverted to short.

infin0 Updated 

I have opened a long position here, simply because all the news of US and AUS interests rates are now baked into the price and there should be a reversion next.

infin0 Updated 

DXY is expected to revert after a fast rise.