j_arrieta

j_arrieta

Trend break for PDD stock. No longer higher highs an higher lows, as the wedge broke to the downside. Next accumulation spot around 75$, maybe even 70$.

j_arrieta

Rising wedge on the SPX, very steep rising with 8 days in a row upwards. Short term correction around the corner, before testing the ATH, and then maybe 180º reverse.

j_arrieta

NATGAS creating an Inverted HS. First objective 2.80$. Keep in mind there’s a larger inverted HS on the making, which could throw the price beyond 4$

j_arrieta

Until proven otherwise, still on a long term downtrend. Rebound objective 4.04$

j_arrieta

JPY vs USD, key to the other index developments. As long as it holds its trendline, JPY will remain week vs the other global currencies, Japan exports will hold, carry trade arbitrages won't unwind, US bonds will not sell off (rising yields), volatility will remain contained. But if it breaks and doesn't hold the 139JPY/$, we could witness how algos start dumping...

j_arrieta

Powerful divergence on the SPX. New highs, still with less components pushing

j_arrieta

VIX vs SPX, monthly chart. Large spikes after a sustained and controlled downside wedge end up with big crashes on the stock index

j_arrieta

Broken the long term wedge (since 2020). These breakouts normally come with big corrections on the SPX

j_arrieta

Price already went through the daily Ichimoku cloud, a bearish sign we had not seen since the 2023 autumn. The daily Kijun, which acts as an anchor has also been traspassed to the downside, now remains at 5,380.

j_arrieta

Weekly Kijun is right at 5,300, acting as a support. On the weekly chart, the Ichimoku cloud should act as major support at 4,900/5,000. Price already went through the daily Ichimoku cloud, a bearish sign we had not seen since the 2023 autumn. The daily Kijun, which acts as an anchor has also been traspassed to the downside, now remains at 5,380.

j_arrieta

Wave 4 of the correction, ABC and then downwards to the 5,000/4,920 support. Not only fits on an Elliot Wave patter, it is also where the market makers will switch from bullish no bearish, pushing the price further down if traspassed

j_arrieta

Rising zigzag, line at 17,600. If broken, supports are way lower: 17,000; 16,500 and 15,800

j_arrieta

My main case scenario: 10Y raising up with a zigzag to the old support line, tag in October with MOVE and VIX screaming panic, and the drop with anger just before the US elections. At the same time, SPX hitting the 4500 level

j_arrieta

Start of wave 5. Extensions of wave 3 to the 161.8%, retracement of wave 1 38%, retracement of wave 3 50%. PT 5,000 points

j_arrieta Updated 

OPINION, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Long term trend exhaustion, 2nd impulse reached 100% of the 1st, with big weekly divergences on the weekly RSI. There is also a big rising wedge On the Elliott wave counts, does not look like a new bull market to me, but an overextension of the C wave in a correction from the 2022 lows, with a terminal wave 5 pattern. If this was to...

j_arrieta Updated 

Loosing bullish momentum, RSI crossing its 9 week MA to the downside, overlapping waves and on the upper side of the Bollinger and YTD AVWAP bands. If 10800 level is lost, we could see a very bearish development (lower highs and lows, downside momentum accelerating, middle term trend lines being traspásese, etc.) with a PT around the 9800/9600 area

j_arrieta Updated 

EuroStoxx 50 reversing. Reached the (A)-(B) 161.80% target, and turned around. Topped the rising wedge lines that start on the 2019 highs and the 2020 lows. Weekly RSI with negative momentum since may Short term, PT 4500 area, prior 2021 and 2023 highs

j_arrieta Updated 

Trend line attempting to break. Last times, huge volatility in the bond and stock markets followed.