johan.gradin

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Joined
Markets Allocation
49 % forex 19 % commodities 10 % indices 22 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 5% | 6 USDCAD 5% | 6 EURGBP 4% | 5 GBPUSD 4% | 5
johan.gradin johan.gradin GBPNZD, D, Long ,
GBPNZD: GBPNZD analog
68 0 9
GBPNZD, D Long
GBPNZD analog

Probably options play. to net long

johan.gradin johan.gradin NG1!, W, Long ,
NG1!: B NTG
54 0 8
NG1!, W Long
B NTG

There's still 50% down to the lowest low. But a intermediate term bottom may be in. Vs another depressed highly inflation correlated asset -> CL it's also an attractive long term buy. Just need more variance for lager moves and bigger positions.

johan.gradin johan.gradin USDZAR, D, Short ,
USDZAR: Self similar sideway
42 4 3
USDZAR, D Short
Self similar sideway

the USDZAR looks very similar to 2013-2014. Naturally so does many of it's sisters such as the MXN and other EMFX

johan.gradin johan.gradin USDIDR, W,
USDIDR: USDIDR
264 3 10
USDIDR, W
USDIDR

Thinking the dollar will gain more steam against particularly EM when FED hikes could be a big misstake imo. However we've build an amazing upwards consolidation (wedge), the ideal move here would be 1. Fakeout to the upside with a reversal. 2. A sideways movement until 2016, "yield getters". And there's also something for you tech guys/gals... a sizable cup and ...

johan.gradin johan.gradin EURCAD, D, Long ,
EURCAD: EURCAD
106 9 7
EURCAD, D Long
EURCAD

Self similar fractal on the EURCAD, very beautiful!

johan.gradin johan.gradin ZN1!/ZB1!, M,
ZN1!/ZB1!: Recoupling in process?
99 5 7
ZN1!/ZB1!, M
Recoupling in process?

This is TNX (Yields) And the 30y/10y ratio (the idea that higher dated bonds should reflect higher yields) This range the markets have been has coincided with the de-coupling from this Ratio and Yields on 10y US bonds (TNX). Why this re-coupling? might be inportant, is because it leaves the door open for markets to start matching fundementals and vice versa. ...

johan.gradin johan.gradin USDNOK, D, Short ,
USDNOK: USDNOK
38 2 3
USDNOK, D Short
USDNOK

some similarities

johan.gradin johan.gradin TNX, D,
TNX: Correlation breakdowns
158 2 3
TNX, D
Correlation breakdowns

Easy money, in anyway shape or form easily hedgable. the 80s yields analog still holding up LT. FED moving rates treasuries lower. EU has moved opposite, betting on this indicator to break it. Key pet is still the Yen and bonds :D until they change their view that one holds up. There is some room here for moderation with bonds selling, and then sell EU on rally ...

johan.gradin johan.gradin EURNZD, D,
EURNZD: Meeting this week
68 0 2
EURNZD, D
Meeting this week

This one has to markedly move higher fast!.. if it's going to match the higher pattern matches. If we don't see a reaction this week, remember RBNZ, It will likely range trade 1.46-1.51

johan.gradin johan.gradin EURUSD/GBPUSD, M, Long ,
EURUSD/GBPUSD: Policy divergence almost priced
371 2 8
EURUSD/GBPUSD, M Long
Policy divergence almost priced

EURGBP is heading right into previous long term support. it's a 5:1 er. So if it just powers through. You have 4 more opps to make it pay up the b/e.

johan.gradin johan.gradin USDKRW, D, Long ,
USDKRW: A safer play than USDCNH or CNY
69 2 5
USDKRW, D Long
A safer play than USDCNH or CNY

Without the Rates. USDKRW is a really undervalued pair on a PCA modelled residual basis, seasonality 15y is as usual strong into April, with 5y 10y predictably ends in late march since people have been selling rallies in an anticipatory move. Buy P/B

johan.gradin johan.gradin EURNZD, D, Long ,
EURNZD: EURNZD b p/b
48 1 2
EURNZD, D Long
EURNZD b p/b

Buy pullback, seasonality matches well too. As well as PCA residuals are some of the lower ranks recently along with NOKSEK and USDKRW. Plus alot of bulls and bears got taken out in that new low.

johan.gradin johan.gradin GC1!/SI1!, D, Short ,
GC1!/SI1!: Sell Gold buy Silver
79 0 2
GC1!/SI1!, D Short
Sell Gold buy Silver

until April May

johan.gradin johan.gradin CL1!, M, Long ,
CL1!: L CL
90 0 2
CL1!, M Long
L CL

Monthtly 200 SMA touch.. Resembles the 85 crash where there was a sharp rally the following year, followed by chop YTD, and lots of volatility. Probably more pronounced %-wise today, since big companies and current financing will need re-finance and re-hedge on a bigger scale = obv. increased volatility.

johan.gradin johan.gradin ED1!/TV1!*100, D,
ED1!/TV1!*100: Hey ho Hey ho, Further out the curve we go.
77 2 3
ED1!/TV1!*100, D
Hey ho Hey ho, Further out the curve we go.

These will never flatten out i.e Sideways (absorb positions) or, (god forbid) rally (2015). Since there's a clear idea that US is going to tighten soon, and we have to price in Eu QE. This stuff on the chart should continue, even with exreme positioning coming in on those spreadsheets worldwide. There's no worries on future US data, or is there? ;) Markets are ...

johan.gradin johan.gradin AUDUSD, D,
AUDUSD: AUD
50 1 1
AUDUSD, D
AUD

It broke worse than 04, but the top tier general highs and lows P/A is still valid. More Sideways? Impossible?

johan.gradin johan.gradin DXY, W,
DXY: DXY
51 0 2
DXY, W
DXY

Up against some resistance here with very high weekly levels on many indicators.

johan.gradin johan.gradin USDTRY, D,
USDTRY: EURAUD
68 0 5
USDTRY, D
EURAUD

stuff that trades like the EURAUD, analog vs USDTRY in 2009. There's better ones from early 2000s - 90s. but data isn't available here.

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