Happy friday and also a Weekly 9s in the CADNOK. Below is the crack spreads. Crude probably drops or stays flat vs. Heating Oil Crude probably moves higher vs. RBOB Gasoline
240m of the 2009-nov decline, indicating a short term bottom. This trade is very obvious, short EUR since ECB will be loose forever, and long GBP since they apparently will be raising rates before the end of the year. As with everything that's obvious and apparent to most agents in the market, it's usually mostly embedded into the price. Spikey markets like EURGBP...
This has been one of the most constructive analogs in commodities, appart from LH, LB, ZS and KC
Here's another one of those strange cross asset analogs, that really makes you think about long term memory. ZS today vs AAPL 1992s. Buy Fall, and sell the rips
EMFX aggregate is the: BRL,INR,MXN,TRY,RUB,KRW,ZAR,PLN These have decoupled (lost correlation) or rather ignored the advances in the EEM. Room for re-coupling soon.
It seems to have a leader, USDZAR. Other EMFXs come to mind too
Even the USDCAD starting to hit some confluences. A good idea to be long all the crosses too, as the 6D CME contracts are running up into the breakdown point from earlier this year.
Something worth keeping an eye on after next week
Some short term and long term analog matches for the kiwi
Semi-important close today, 9b in the cards this friday . Last week it took out most of the late longs or breakout traders. Looking for it to gain momentum above 1.09, that'll send it it above the 1.10 highs.
First steps working on a TD sequential. Note: without conditiions for 13s yet. But i added some conditions for prop. ideas like "trend stall" into the script. And will try to work out more functions, to find timed turning points, for the data provided by tradingview and their time selection (sunday data etc..)
Rates looks like it's converging towards the middle based on the actions of the FED, FW guidance, reduction of LSAPS etc. At the same time, an argument could be made that the incoming data might not be that hot.
EM's is beginning to act choppy through summer, as everything is rosy and fine. :)