The average MAJOR declines from a top, since 1994, in USDJPY are 31% in 27 months. USDJPY is currently down around 21%. The average would take us down to $86 in September 2017 - a year from now.
The interesting thing is what happens after a +20% decline. The following bounce-average is 13%. That would mean from ...
Shorting Dow Jones at market targeting 400 points lower. Daily chart is strong but overbought. Weekly is also highly overbought, so the Daily and Weekly shorts are lining up at this moment if price move down from here.
Support zone should be bought if we get down there.
Shorting DAX at market (or place an entry at 10,450 with a 50 pip stop) for a swing down to new lows. This trade could take a while to get traction and could easily get stopped out. Hence the 50 pip stop.
This is not a "sell signal" for the stock market, but it has been something to keep an eye on in the recent year. Especially when Apple gaps down from recent highs (as in mid July 2015 and mid November 2015).
This gap down could be an early indication of whats to come for the US stock market (SPX500 blue line). ...
One reason to be long oil throughout 2016.
These types of "events" will always differ from each other when looking at time, price and volatility. But the main thing to keep an eye on is structure.
Although this is purely speculative it is interesting nevertheless to see how the similarities in structure caught on ...
Long position at market (or wait for price to come down before initiating a long position) with the uptrend. Stops below the recent swing low. In this type of environment there's no point in chasing. Go long, go short on good risk/reward setups.
Although stocks could have one more push higher it looks to be completing the range breakout from the "double bottom" and coming into resistance.
If the 20 and 50 EMA cross over again, we're looking at fading momentum to the upside.
17,600+ is a good place for a fade. If it works, great. But if we get a EMA ...
Although I am bearish stocks, the evidence for a repeat of September-November is there. No point in chasing price lower at this point.
IF price moves up to 2,100 the coming weeks and you're holding a long position, I'd be very cautious.